SHA

Cyclicals

Công ty Cổ phần Sơn Hà Sài Gòn

Tài nguyên Cơ bản/Kim loạiCT

3.990

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Overvalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

2.874

Current

3.990

Gap

-28.0%

ModelEV EBITDA MIDCYCLE

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Tài nguyên Cơ bản→Cyclical

Classified as cyclical because ICB sector "Tài nguyên Cơ bản" maps to the cyclical group

ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle

Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

Model Inputs

Mid-Cycle EBITDA→65.17B

Fair EV/EBITDA→9.4x

Years of data→7

Valuation

Mid-Cycle EBITDA

65.17B

Fair EV/EBITDA

9.4x

Net Debt

512.23B

Equity Value

2.874

Years of data→7

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — SHA

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Good

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

100

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.22

Moderate

DSRI

1.039

GMI

0.995

AQI

1.504

SGI

1.020

DEPI

0.957

SGAI

1.047

TATA

0.005

LVGI

1.010

The Beneish M-Score of -2.2173 indicates that SHA is not likely to be manipulating earnings, as it is below the threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality score of 72.1 suggests potential concerns, particularly with revenue recognition, which scored 0.0.

Red Flags

The earnings quality score of 0.0 for revenue indicates significant issues with revenue recognition practices.
The cash conversion score of 52.1 suggests that while accruals are high, actual cash flows may be weak, indicating potential liquidity issues.

Positive Signals

The DSRI of 1.0390 is close to 1, indicating that the company is not significantly increasing its receivables relative to sales, which is a positive sign.
An accrual score of 98.0 indicates that the company has a strong ability to convert earnings into cash, which is a positive aspect.

Ownership Risk

The top shareholders include a significant institutional investor holding 15.7%, which may provide stability, but the high concentration of individual shareholders could lead to governance risks and potential conflicts of interest.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor revenue recognition practices and cash flow performance before making investment decisions. It may be prudent to wait for clearer signals of financial stability and transparency.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

5/9

Neutral

Z-Score

1.59

Distress Zone

Sharpe

-0.11

Negative

Composite

Fair

Price Risk

Momentum

+0.5%

Volatility

23.3%

Max Drawdown

-10.6%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

8.74P/E

P/B0.32

P/S0.12

ROE3.7%

ROA1.5%

EPS456.44

BVPS12587.17

Gross Margin12.2%

Net Margin1.4%

D/E1.52

Current Ratio1.37

Rev Growth-2.7%

Profit Growth18.8%

EV/EBITDA11.03

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

35.1M

Charter Capital

351.2B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Tài nguyên Cơ bản

Industry (ICB L3)

Kim loại

Sub-industry

Thép và sản phẩm thép

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for SHA — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Công ty Tnhh Một Thành Viên Đầu Tư Tổng Hợp Lê Gia

Inst

15.7%

5.3 trieu

Lê Hoàng Hà

Indiv

13.4%

4.7 trieu

Lê Việt Cường

Indiv

6.0%

1.1 trieu

Nguyễn Thị Thu Hằng

Indiv

4.0%

317.300

nguyen-thi-hanh

Indiv

3.3%

600.035

Công ty Cổ Phần Đầu Tư Công Nghệ Sơn Hà Xanh

Inst

2.8%

998.335

Phạm Hoàng Phong

Indiv

0.1%

10.000

Board & Management

Lê Hoàng Hà13.4%

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Phạm Thị Uyên

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Lê Văn Ngà

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Lê Văn Thành

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Văn Dũng

Kế toán trưởng

Hoàng Tuấn Thanh

Phó Tổng Giám đốc Kinh doanh

Ngô Thị Thanh Lan

Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Người phụ trách quản trị công ty/Tổng Giám đốc

Nguyễn Thị Kim Loan

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Văn Tuấn

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Lê Hoàng Anh

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Trịnh Thị Phương Linh

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Top connections

TTD10.0%TTT8.0%TLD6.7%BSQ4.5%RCD4.4%CAP4.0%VFS4.0%HNA4.0%DBT4.0%HDW4.0%GIL4.0%MIG4.0%

Computed 12/04/2026