HNA

Utilities

Công ty Cổ phần Thủy điện Hủa Na

Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt/Sản xuất & Phân phối ĐiệnCT

22.700

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Overvalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

18.519

Current

22.700

Gap

-18.4%

ModelDDM 3STAGE

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt→Utility

Classified as utility because ICB sector "Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt" maps to the utility group

Model3-Stage DDM

Value = Sum of [DPS x (1+g)^t / (1+Ke)^t] + Terminal Dividend / (Ke - g_terminal)

The Dividend Discount Model values a stock based on its future dividend payments, discounted to present value. The 3-stage variant captures three phases of a company's life: high growth (years 1-3), a transition period where growth declines linearly (years 4-6), and a terminal stage of stable, perpetual growth (year 7+). As John D. Rockefeller said: "The only thing that gives me pleasure is to see my dividends coming in."

Cost of Equity (Ke)

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

0.600

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

8.70%

Growth Estimate

fundamental equity blend1.50%

Model Inputs

DPS source:Actual dividends

DPS→1.000

Payout ratio→71.8%

Valuation

Dividends Per Share

1.000

Base Growth

1.50%

Cost of Equity

8.70%

Terminal Growth

3.50%

DDM Value

18.519

Value Decomposition

26%

74%

Explicit period (26%)Terminal value (74%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — HNA

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Fair

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

100

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.39

Moderate

DSRI

0.921

GMI

0.848

AQI

1.119

SGI

1.462

DEPI

0.827

SGAI

0.816

TATA

-0.074

LVGI

0.662

HNA exhibits several concerning indicators of potential earnings manipulation, as evidenced by a Beneish M-Score of -2.3945, which is below the manipulation threshold of -1.78. Despite a solid earnings quality score of 66.0/100, the significant reliance on institutional ownership raises governance concerns.

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score of -2.3945 indicates potential earnings manipulation, significantly below the threshold of -1.78.
SGI of 1.4622 suggests aggressive revenue growth that may not be sustainable, raising concerns about revenue recognition practices.
An earnings quality margin score of 59.3/100 indicates potential issues with profitability sustainability.

Positive Signals

Earnings quality cash conversion score of 100.0/100 indicates strong cash flow generation relative to reported earnings.
Low DSRI of 0.9213 suggests that inventory levels are well managed, potentially indicating operational efficiency.

Ownership Risk

The high concentration of ownership (80.7% by Tổng Công ty Điện lực Dầu khí Việt Nam) may lead to governance risks, as minority shareholders have limited influence over corporate decisions.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor HNA's financial disclosures for signs of earnings manipulation and consider diversifying their holdings due to the elevated risk profile. Engaging with management regarding governance practices may also be prudent.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

8/9

Strong

Z-Score

7.29

Safe Zone

Sharpe

-0.25

Negative

Composite

Weak

Price Risk

Momentum

-3.6%

Volatility

38.3%

Max Drawdown

-17.5%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

11.49P/E

P/B1.58

P/S4.74

ROE14.2%

ROA11.9%

EPS2022.85

BVPS14738.03

Gross Margin48.2%

Net Margin41.2%

D/E0.14

Current Ratio5.03

Rev Growth46.2%

Profit Growth76.4%

EV/EBITDA6.62

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

235.2M

Charter Capital

2352.3B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt

Industry (ICB L3)

Sản xuất & Phân phối Điện

Sub-industry

Sản xuất & Phân phối Điện

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for HNA — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Tổng Công ty Điện lực Dầu khí Việt Nam

Inst

80.7%

189.9 trieu

Ngân hàng Thương mại Cổ phần Bắc Á

Indiv

4.9%

11.6 trieu

Ngân hàng Thương mại Cổ phần Quân đội

Inst

4.5%

10.5 trieu

Tổng Công ty lắp máy Việt Nam

Inst

3.7%

8.7 trieu

Công ty CP Đầu Tư Tài Chính Và Bất Động Sản Việt

Inst

0.8%

1.9 trieu

nguyen-xuan-dung

Indiv

0.2%

447.300

Nguyễn Thị Thu Hằng

Indiv

0.2%

386.000

Trịnh Bảo Ngọc

Indiv

0.1%

307.600

Trần Văn Biên

Indiv

0.1%

265.000

Board & Management

Trịnh Bảo Ngọc0.1%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Giám đốc

Hoàng Xuân Thành

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Võ Trung Chính

Kế toán trưởng

Trần Thị Thu Hà

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Bùi Huy Thành

Phó Giám đốc

Đoàn Văn Trường

Phó Giám đốc

Nguyễn Xuân Sơn

Phó Giám đốc/Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Hoàng Văn Tuấn

Người phụ trách quản trị công ty

Lê Hải Long

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Văn Tuấn Thạch

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Vũ Văn Tâm

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Hoàng Thị Thu Nguyệt

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Top connections

NT280.7%PPS80.7%EIC80.7%MIG67.7%MBS66.8%L3551.0%LM751.0%LO551.0%NAF43.3%L6141.1%L4340.8%LCD36.2%

Computed 12/04/2026