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Construction sector

TLD

Construction
Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư Xây dựng và Phát triển Đô thị Thăng Long
Xây dựng và Vật liệuCT
8.350
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Overvalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
1.987
Current
8.350
Gap
-76.2%
ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CTXây dựng và Vật liệuConstruction
Classified as construction because ICB sector "Xây dựng và Vật liệu" maps to the construction group
ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend
Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
1.100
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
12.20%
Ke
12.20%
x
E/(D+E)
77.71%
+
Kd(1-t)
6.92%
x
D/(D+E)
22.29%
=
WACC
11.02%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental firm blend3.00%
Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
4
Valuation
50%EV/EBITDA Value
4.686
50%DCF Value
-712
Blended Intrinsic
1.987
Value Decomposition
39%
61%
Explicit period (39%)Terminal value (61%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — TLD

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

63
Fair
Accrual Quality
73
Cash Conversion
100
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.66
Low Risk
DSRI
1.500
GMI
0.446
AQI
0.753
SGI
1.172
DEPI
1.305
SGAI
1.047
TATA
-0.067
LVGI
1.354

The Beneish M-Score of -2.662 indicates a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is below the threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality metrics reveal significant weaknesses, particularly in revenue and margin quality, which pose risks to the stock's financial integrity.

Red Flags
  • SGI of 1.1717 suggests aggressive growth, which may not be supported by underlying fundamentals.
  • EQ margin and EQ revenue scores of 0.0/100 indicate severe issues with profitability and revenue recognition.
Positive Signals
  • High cash conversion score of 100.0/100 indicates strong cash flow generation relative to earnings.
  • Low GMI of 0.4457 suggests that the company is not experiencing significant gross margin deterioration.
Ownership Risk

The concentrated ownership structure, with the top five shareholders holding over 45% of the company, raises potential governance risks and may lead to conflicts of interest.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor the company's revenue recognition practices and consider a cautious approach given the elevated risk level, while also leveraging the strong cash flow generation as a potential buffer.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
5/9
Neutral
Z-Score
2.30
Grey Zone
Sharpe
1.33
Excellent
Composite
52
Fair
Price Risk
Momentum
+39.4%
Volatility
11.3%
Max Drawdown
-16.1%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
9.74P/E
P/B0.74
P/S0.97
ROE7.9%
ROA5.3%
EPS857.03
BVPS11216.21
Gross Margin16.2%
Net Margin10.0%
D/E0.43
Current Ratio3.82
Rev Growth17.2%
Profit Growth372.3%
EV/EBITDA7.74
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
77.7M
Charter Capital
777.4B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Xây dựng và Vật liệu
Industry (ICB L3)
Xây dựng và Vật liệu
Sub-industry
Vật liệu xây dựng & Nội thất
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for TLD — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Nguyễn An Ngọc
Indiv
13.2%
10.3 trieu
Nguyễn An Quân
Indiv
10.4%
8.1 trieu
Nguyễn Thị Thu Hằng
Indiv
6.7%
1.2 trieu
Trần Trọng Cảnh
Indiv
6.3%
1.1 trieu
Nguyễn Xuân Tuân
Indiv
5.2%
2.0 trieu
Lê Văn Hoan
Indiv
5.1%
958.325
Nguyễn Hữu Huân
Indiv
4.5%
832.530
Nguyễn Thị Phượng
Indiv
4.3%
1.7 trieu
Trần Trọng Long
Indiv
3.9%
700.000
Trần Trọng Sinh
Indiv
3.3%
600.000
Nguyễn Thanh Điệp
Indiv
2.8%
520.000
NGUYỄN AN DŨNG
Indiv
2.8%
520.000
Lê Thị Anh
Indiv
2.0%
1.5 trieu
Nguyễn Thị Kim Tuyến
Indiv
1.9%
1.5 trieu
Trần Thị Nga
Indiv
0.2%
182.276
Nguyễn An Cường
Indiv
0.2%
182.276
nguyen-thanh-hai
Indiv
0.2%
182.276
Phạm Văn Cường
Indiv
0.1%
91.138
Phạm Văn Tuyên
Indiv
0.1%
91.138
Board & Management
Nguyễn An Ngọc13.2%
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn An Quân10.4%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Tổng Giám đốc
NGUYỄN THANH HẢI0.2%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Trần Thị Nga0.2%
Kế toán trưởng
Phạm Văn Cường0.1%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Phạm Văn Tuyến0.1%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Lê Thị Huyền Thanh
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Trần Đức Mưu
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Mai Thị Hương Lan
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Gia Toàn
Người phụ trách quản trị công ty
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a methodology engine — not an advisor. Every number is the deterministic output of a published formula applied to public financial data. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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