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Consumer sector

BSQ

Consumer
Công ty Cổ phần Bia Sài Gòn - Quảng Ngãi
Thực phẩm và đồ uống/Bia và đồ uốngCT
17.500
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
41.401
Current
17.500
Gap
+136.6%
ModelFCF DCF

Valuation Breakdown

CTThực phẩm và đồ uốngConsumer
Classified as consumer because ICB sector "Thực phẩm và đồ uống" maps to the consumer group
ModelFCF-Based DCF
Value = Sum of [FCF / (1+WACC)^t] + Terminal Value / (1+WACC)^n

A classic Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the actual cash a business generates after all operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted back to today's value using WACC. This is the gold standard of intrinsic valuation: it values the company based on what it can actually deliver to shareholders, independent of market sentiment.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.800
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
10.10%
Ke
10.10%
x
E/(D+E)
62.88%
+
Kd(1-t)
6.30%
x
D/(D+E)
37.12%
=
WACC
10.00%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental firm blend4.00%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
Base FCF112.34B
Projection years10
4
Valuation
Base FCF
112.34B
Growth Rate
4.00%
WACC
10.00%
Terminal Growth
4.00%
DCF Value
41.401
Value Decomposition
43%
57%
Explicit period (43%)Terminal value (57%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — BSQ

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

61
Fair
Accrual Quality
85
Cash Conversion
100
Receivables
0
Margin Stability
100
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.58
Low Risk
DSRI
1.106
GMI
0.969
AQI
1.189
SGI
0.841
DEPI
1.083
SGAI
1.178
TATA
-0.037
LVGI
0.769

BSQ exhibits a Beneish M-Score of -2.5836, indicating a lower likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is below the threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality score of 61.3 suggests potential concerns, particularly with receivables and revenue recognition.

Red Flags
  • The receivables quality score is 0.0/100, indicating significant concerns regarding the company's ability to collect receivables, which may suggest aggressive revenue recognition practices.
  • The SGI of 0.8410 indicates a decline in sales growth, which could signal potential future revenue challenges.
Positive Signals
  • The earnings quality score of 61.3/100, particularly the cash conversion score of 100.0/100, indicates strong cash flow relative to earnings, suggesting that the company is generating cash effectively.
  • The low GMI of 0.9692 suggests that gross margins are stable, which is a positive indicator in the context of the Vietnamese market.
Ownership Risk

The high concentration of ownership with Tổng Công ty Cổ phần Bia - Rượu - Nước Giải khát Sài Gòn holding 66.6% poses risks of potential conflicts of interest and reduced minority shareholder influence.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor BSQ's receivables and revenue recognition practices while considering the strong cash conversion metrics. A cautious approach is advised, with an emphasis on assessing future sales growth and management's strategic direction.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
5/9
Neutral
Z-Score
3.67
Safe Zone
Sharpe
-0.21
Negative
Composite
59
Fair
Price Risk
Momentum
-4.1%
Volatility
71.5%
Max Drawdown
-22.6%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
9.81P/E
P/B0.91
P/S0.47
ROE9.4%
ROA6.3%
EPS1781.37
BVPS19214.79
Gross Margin7.6%
Net Margin4.8%
D/E0.40
Current Ratio1.20
Rev Growth-15.9%
Profit Growth-19.9%
EV/EBITDA4.25
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
45.0M
Charter Capital
450.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Thực phẩm và đồ uống
Industry (ICB L3)
Bia và đồ uống
Sub-industry
Sản xuất bia
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for BSQ — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Tổng Công ty Cổ phần Bia - Rượu - Nước Giải khát Sài Gòn
Inst
66.6%
29.9 trieu
nguyen-thi-hanh
Indiv
4.5%
2.0 trieu
Trương Quang Vinh
Indiv
3.1%
1.4 trieu
Công ty Cổ phần Tập đoàn Bia Sài Gòn Bình Tây
Inst
2.6%
1.2 trieu
Đinh Văn Thuận
Indiv
2.1%
0
Đinh Văn Thuận
Indiv
1.4%
650.000
Bùi Thị Nhự
Indiv
1.1%
502.150
Phạm Thị Cẩn
Indiv
1.0%
450.000
Đinh Văn Thành
Indiv
1.0%
450.000
Đinh Văn Thành
Indiv
1.0%
0
Đinh Phương Thảo
Indiv
0.9%
400.000
Nguyễn Bùi Anh Khoa
Indiv
0.3%
155.100
Công ty TNHH Cơ Nhiệt Điện Lạnh Bách Khoa
Inst
0.3%
150.000
Nguyễn Bùi Diệu My
Indiv
0.3%
115.100
Board & Management
Đinh Văn Thuận1.4%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Bùi Thị Nhự1.1%
Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Văn Hùng
Phó Giám đốc
Thượng Tấn Lực
Phó Giám đốc Kỹ thuật
Võ Thanh Cường
Kế toán trưởng
Trần Nguyên Trung
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Huỳnh Thị Thùy Nhân
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Teo Hong Keng
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Văn Thảo Nguyên
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Trần Đình Bé
Phó Giám đốc
Nguyễn Văn Hòa
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Đỗ Thị Diễm Kiều
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Computed 12/04/2026
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