CAP

Cyclicals

Công ty Cổ phần Lâm Nông sản Thực phẩm Yên Bái

Tài nguyên Cơ bản/Lâm nghiệp và GiấyCT

47.000

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Overvalued

Very Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

31.055

Current

47.000

Gap

-33.9%

ModelEV EBITDA MIDCYCLE

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Tài nguyên Cơ bản→Cyclical

Classified as cyclical because ICB sector "Tài nguyên Cơ bản" maps to the cyclical group

ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle

Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

Model Inputs

Mid-Cycle EBITDA→54.48B

Fair EV/EBITDA→7.3x

Years of data→7

Valuation

Mid-Cycle EBITDA

54.48B

Fair EV/EBITDA

7.3x

Net Debt

-73.76B

Equity Value

31.055

Years of data→7

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — CAP

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2024

Poor

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2024

-0.86

High Risk

DSRI

1.098

GMI

1.922

AQI

1.172

SGI

0.860

DEPI

0.829

SGAI

0.956

TATA

0.319

LVGI

2.166

The Beneish M-Score of -0.861 suggests a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is above the threshold of -1.78. However, the Earnings Quality Score of 5.4/100 indicates significant concerns regarding the company's earnings quality, particularly in cash conversion and receivables.

Red Flags

Earnings Quality Score of 5.4/100 indicates very poor earnings quality, with cash conversion at 0.0/100.
DSRI of 1.0977 suggests potential issues with inventory management, as it indicates that accounts receivable are growing faster than revenue.

Positive Signals

Beneish M-Score of -0.861 is above the manipulation threshold, indicating a lower risk of earnings manipulation.
SGI of 0.8600 indicates that the company's sales growth is slowing, which may be a positive signal for sustainability.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is concentrated among a few individuals, which may lead to governance risks and potential conflicts of interest. However, the presence of multiple shareholders could provide some level of oversight.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor the company's earnings quality metrics and consider a cautious approach due to the elevated risks. It may be prudent to wait for improvements in cash conversion and receivables management before making significant investments.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

3/9

Weak

Z-Score

6.98

Safe Zone

Sharpe

-0.28

Negative

Composite

Poor

Price Risk

Momentum

-1.3%

Volatility

15.4%

Max Drawdown

-26.0%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2024

29.56P/E

P/B3.16

P/S1.11

ROE9.7%

ROA7.4%

EPS1485.06

BVPS12673.19

Gross Margin14.1%

Net Margin4.1%

D/E0.49

Current Ratio2.78

Rev Growth-14.1%

Profit Growth-79.0%

EV/EBITDA12.69

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

15.3M

Charter Capital

152.7B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Tài nguyên Cơ bản

Industry (ICB L3)

Lâm nghiệp và Giấy

Sub-industry

Sản xuất giấy

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for CAP — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Hoàng Thị Bình

Indiv

11.7%

1.8 trieu

Lê Xuân Lương

Indiv

10.5%

1.6 trieu

Trương Ngọc Biên

Indiv

6.8%

1.0 trieu

Trương Thị Hoàng Yến

Indiv

5.0%

764.640

Lưu Quang Hưng

Indiv

5.0%

169.030

Trương Thị Hoàng Anh

Indiv

5.0%

757.416

Hứa Minh Hồng

Indiv

4.8%

252.331

Nguyễn Quốc Trinh

Indiv

4.8%

730.969

Trần Công Bình

Indiv

4.5%

452.243

Trần Thị Bình

Indiv

2.6%

404.422

Lê Thị Quý

Indiv

2.1%

162.577

Trần Ngọc Điều

Indiv

1.9%

65.410

Vũ Văn Thục

Indiv

1.6%

55.800

Lê Thị Hồng Ngọc

Indiv

1.3%

101.623

Lê Ngọc Nga

Indiv

1.0%

52.210

Nguyễn Huy Thông

Indiv

0.8%

126.327

Trần Quốc Tuấn

Indiv

0.8%

42.500

nguyen-thanh-binh

Indiv

0.7%

36.000

Nguyễn Hữu Hòa

Indiv

0.6%

19.100

Trương Thị Duyên

Indiv

0.6%

82.460

Nguyễn Văn Trữ

Indiv

0.5%

84.227

Lê Long Giang

Indiv

0.5%

78.174

Trương Thị Lan

Indiv

0.4%

15.500

Nguyễn Thị Thu Hằng

Indiv

0.4%

65.000

Nguyễn Thủy Tiên

Indiv

0.4%

54.645

nguyen-thanh-son

Indiv

0.3%

52.000

Mai Thị Bưởi

Indiv

0.3%

17.663

Hà Hải Yến

Indiv

0.3%

45.802

Trần Sỹ Lâm

Indiv

0.2%

23.800

Lương Quốc Quyền

Indiv

0.1%

23.162

Nguyễn Xuân Hồng

Indiv

0.1%

23.541

Bùi Văn Bân

Indiv

0.1%

4.200

Dương Minh Huy

Indiv

0.1%

5.200

Board & Management

Hoàng Thị Bình11.7%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Trương Ngọc Biên6.8%

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Hứa Minh Hồng4.8%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

TRẦN CÔNG BÌNH4.5%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Giám đốc

Nguyễn Huy Thông0.8%

Phó Giám đốc

Nguyễn Văn Trữ0.5%

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Lê Long Giang0.5%

Phó Giám đốc

Nguyễn Thị Thu Hằng0.4%

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Thanh Sơn0.3%

Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Kế toán trưởng/Trưởng phòng Tài chính - Kế toán

Trần Sỹ Lâm0.2%

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Phạm Tú Linh

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Top connections

DTP19.3%DTE18.0%EID2 links KSQ13.3%TNM12.8%CGV12.1%L1011.7%NHH10.5%GVT2 links PHN10.5%INN10.5%HVT2 links

Computed 12/04/2026