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Cyclicals sector

SPC

Cyclicals
Công ty Cổ phần Bảo vệ Thực vật Sài Gòn
Hóa chấtCT
9.700
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
29.499
Current
9.700
Gap
+204.1%
ModelEV EBITDA MIDCYCLE

Valuation Breakdown

CTHóa chấtCyclical
Classified as cyclical because ICB sector "Hóa chất" maps to the cyclical group
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

1
Model Inputs
Mid-Cycle EBITDA79.34B
Fair EV/EBITDA5.0x
Years of data7
2
Valuation
Mid-Cycle EBITDA
79.34B
x
Fair EV/EBITDA
5.0x
-
Net Debt
86.07B
=
Equity Value
29.499
Years of data7

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — SPC

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

75
Good
Accrual Quality
84
Cash Conversion
100
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.79
Low Risk
DSRI
0.766
GMI
0.859
AQI
1.052
SGI
1.085
DEPI
0.999
SGAI
0.735
TATA
-0.041
LVGI
0.913

SPC exhibits a Beneish M-Score of -2.7893, indicating a low likelihood of earnings manipulation. However, the earnings quality score of 75.1 suggests some areas of concern, particularly in revenue and margin metrics, which could indicate potential risks in financial reporting.

Red Flags
  • Earnings quality metrics show 0.0/100 in both eq_margin and eq_revenue, indicating significant issues in profitability and revenue recognition.
Positive Signals
  • The DSRI of 0.7656 suggests that accounts receivable are well-managed relative to revenue, indicating a lower risk of revenue manipulation.
Ownership Risk

The majority ownership by Tổng Công ty Nông Nghiệp Sài Gòn at 59.3% may lead to potential governance risks, as decisions may favor the interests of the state-owned enterprise over minority shareholders.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor SPC's revenue recognition practices and profitability metrics, while considering a cautious approach due to the concentrated ownership structure and potential governance issues.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
7/9
Strong
Z-Score
2.70
Grey Zone
Sharpe
-0.43
Negative
Composite
60
Fair
Price Risk
Momentum
-27.3%
Volatility
84.9%
Max Drawdown
-47.8%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
6.43P/E
P/B0.80
P/S0.11
ROE13.2%
ROA3.7%
EPS1508.74
BVPS12142.92
Gross Margin19.6%
Net Margin1.7%
D/E1.98
Current Ratio1.32
Rev Growth7.4%
Profit Growth132.8%
EV/EBITDA2.86
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
10.5M
Charter Capital
105.3B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Hóa chất
Industry (ICB L3)
Hóa chất
Sub-industry
Sản phẩm hóa dầu, Nông dược & Hóa chất khác
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for SPC — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Tổng Công ty Nông Nghiệp Sài Gòn
Inst
59.3%
6.2 trieu
Jia Hui
Indiv
8.1%
850.530
Huỳnh Đức
Indiv
1.4%
149.035
Huỳnh Chí Toàn
Indiv
1.3%
140.050
Châu Ngọc Minh
Indiv
1.1%
111.195
Phan Văn Sang
Indiv
0.9%
98.400
Trương Huy Hoàng Tam Dũng
Indiv
0.8%
81.000
Huỳnh Chấn Huy
Indiv
0.2%
16.500
Board & Management
Huỳnh Đức1.4%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Mai Thị Lệ Khuyên
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Quốc Dũng
Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Điêu Quang Trung
Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Phó Giám đốc
Trần Đình Vũ
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Lê Thị Phượng
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Phạm Thiết Hòa
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Ngọc Bích
Phó Giám đốc
Đỗ Thị Kim Anh
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Bùi Thị Ánh Tuyết
Trưởng phòng Tài chính - Kế toán/Kế toán trưởng
Đặng Thanh Cương
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a methodology engine — not an advisor. Every number is the deterministic output of a published formula applied to public financial data. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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