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Cyclicals sector

SCO

Cyclicals
Công ty Cổ phần Công nghiệp Thủy sản
Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp/Công nghiệp nặngCT
4.000
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
6.257
Current
4.000
Gap
+56.4%
ModelEV EBITDA MIDCYCLE

Valuation Breakdown

CTHàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệpCyclical
Classified as cyclical because ICB sector "Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp" maps to the cyclical group
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

1
Model Inputs
Mid-Cycle EBITDA4.50B
Fair EV/EBITDA8.6x
Years of data7
2
Valuation
Mid-Cycle EBITDA
4.50B
x
Fair EV/EBITDA
8.6x
-
Net Debt
12.35B
=
Equity Value
6.257
Years of data7

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — SCO

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2024

58
Fair
Accrual Quality
88
Cash Conversion
95
Receivables
0
Margin Stability
30
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2016

0.93
High Risk
DSRI
0.542
GMI
2.089
AQI
0.744
SGI
5.193
DEPI
0.915
SGAI
0.620
TATA
-0.100
LVGI
0.894

The Beneish M-Score of 0.9338 indicates a high likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it exceeds the threshold of -1.78. Additionally, the significant SGI of 5.1933 suggests aggressive revenue growth that may not be sustainable, raising concerns about the company's financial integrity.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score of 0.9338 indicates potential earnings manipulation, exceeding the threshold of -1.78.
  • SGI of 5.1933 suggests unsustainable revenue growth, which could be a sign of inflated financial reporting.
Positive Signals
  • Earnings Quality Score of 68.5/100 indicates reasonable earnings quality, particularly strong cash conversion and receivables management.
Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily concentrated, with two state-owned enterprises holding a combined 92.8% stake, which raises potential governance risks and limits minority shareholder influence.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and conduct further due diligence, particularly focusing on revenue recognition practices and the sustainability of growth, before considering any investment in SCO.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
3/9
Weak
Z-Score
-22.72
Distress Zone
Sharpe
-1.04
Negative
Composite
47
Weak
Price Risk
Momentum
-16.1%
Volatility
52.2%
Max Drawdown
-49.3%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2024
7.85P/E
P/B0.00
P/S0.87
ROE-2.7%
ROA17.4%
EPS522.54
BVPS0.00
Gross Margin41.9%
Net Margin11.0%
D/E-1.14
Current Ratio0.03
Rev Growth-26.5%
Profit Growth-75.4%
EV/EBITDA8.58
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
4.2M
Charter Capital
42.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
Industry (ICB L3)
Công nghiệp nặng
Sub-industry
Máy công nghiệp
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for SCO — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Tổng Công ty Thủy sản Việt Nam
Inst
46.4%
1.9 trieu
Tổng công ty Hải sản Biển Đông
State
46.4%
1.9 trieu
Quách Tuấn Hải
Indiv
10.8%
438.000
Công ty Cổ phần Biển Tây
Inst
8.4%
352.194
Trần Vũ Dũng
Indiv
7.3%
306.518
Vũ Thị Tuyết Cẩm
Indiv
4.9%
206.967
Huỳnh Văn Đặng Thị Lệ Hoa
Indiv
1.9%
76.750
Bùi Thị Ngà
Indiv
1.3%
55.000
Nguyễn Tấn Dũng
Indiv
1.1%
47.402
Bùi Thị Tuyết Mai
Indiv
1.1%
45.000
nguyen-van-tan
Indiv
0.8%
34.500
Nguyễn Trọng Nghĩa
Indiv
0.7%
28.310
Tống Thị Ngọc Oanh
Indiv
0.6%
24.165
Trương Tùng Hưng
Indiv
0.4%
16.000
Board & Management
Huỳnh Văn Đặng Thị Lệ Hoa1.9%
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Tấn Dũng1.1%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Trương Tùng Hưng0.4%
Tổng Giám đốc/Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Đỗ Trung Chuyên
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Trần Thị Nguyệt Phụng
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Trần Hữu Hạnh
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Vũ Văn Công
Kế toán trưởng
Võ Quốc Việt
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Thành Trung
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a methodology engine — not an advisor. Every number is the deterministic output of a published formula applied to public financial data. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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