Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 6.990
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 7.841
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
- Under financial distress the model falls back to book value.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 3 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Very Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.
Technical details
Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.
Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 1.0145th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 16.8%88th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The company’s Beneish M-Score is -1.5431 (79th percentile vs Vietnamese peers), which measures a composite of eight ratios used to flag aggressive accounting; the year-over-year change is -6.65 (the score moved materially versus last year). Earnings-quality component scores are mixed: accruals, cash conversion and receivables quality each score 100/100 while margin quality and revenue quality score 0/100. Other signals are supportive of solvency and operational fundamentals: Altman Z-Score = 5.07 (in the safe zone) and Piotroski F-Score = 7/9 (strong fundamentals).
- Beneish M-Score = -1.5431 (79th percentile among Vietnamese peers). The M-Score combines eight variables (DSRI, GMI, AQI, SGI, DEPI, SGAI, TATA, LVGI) to screen for earnings manipulation; relative to Vietnamese peers the company is in the more aggressive accounting range (higher percentile).
- AQI = 4.7397 (asset quality index). AQI measures the proportion of non-current assets and other long-term items that may be being capitalised or reclassified; an elevated AQI signals potential capitalisation/reclassification of expenses.
- SGI = 3.0924 (sales growth index). SGI measures sales growth; a high SGI can increase pressure to meet growth expectations and is one component that raises the M-Score.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 16.8% of total assets (88th percentile among Vietnamese non-financials). This line typically includes prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable and other long-term receivables and is high relative to peers, which can mask cash flows or shift income/timing.
- Margin quality = 0/100 and Revenue quality = 0/100 in the Earnings Quality composite. These indicate weaknesses in the persistence or make-up of reported margins and in the sustainability or recording of revenue (the scoring method gives these areas no credit).
- TATA = -0.4333 (total accruals to total assets). TATA measures accrual-based earnings; a negative TATA and the Accruals quality score of 100/100 indicate low accruals and high accruals quality under the scoring rules.
- Cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit, 3-year) = 1.01 (45th percentile). The company converts reported profit into cash at roughly parity over three years, and Cash conversion quality scored 100/100 under the earnings-quality measure.
- Receivables quality score = 100/100 despite the high receivables-outside-trade-cycle figure; this suggests that trade receivables (versus the non-trade receivables bundle) appear of high quality in underlying calculations.
- Altman Z-Score = 5.07, which places the company in the ‘safe’ zone for going-concern distance under the Z-Score model, and Piotroski F-Score = 7/9 indicating generally strong operating and profitability fundamentals by the F-Score checklist.
Top three institutional shareholders together hold 50.1% (Phong Sơn 18.9%, Invest An Nam 17.8%, Peaceful Land 13.4%), while the two largest individual holders hold 6.5% and 5.2%. This is a moderately concentrated institutional ownership structure; director-deal activity recorded 1 sale registration and 1 purchase registration between 2025-10-30 and 2026-10-30 (registrations, not executed trades).
- Compare the line(s) in the FY2025 balance sheet labeled 'Receivables and prepayments' or the notes ‘Loans and other receivables’ with the total-assets percentage (16.8%) to identify the components (prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable, long-term receivables) and the counterparties.
- Reconcile the operating cash flow and profit figures in the cash flow statement and profit-and-loss note to reproduce the three-year cash conversion ratio (operating cash flow / net profit = 1.01) and see the year-by-year pattern.
- Inspect the fixed-asset and intangible-asset schedules and the notes on capitalisation policy (capitalised expenses, reclassifications) to assess drivers of AQI = 4.7397 and whether there were large reclassifications or additions.
- Review the revenue recognition note and segment / sales-detail disclosures to understand why revenue-quality and margin-quality scores are 0/100—check one-off revenue lines, related-party sales, and timing or return provisions.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.48
- P/S
- 7.03
- ROE
- 27.5%
- ROA
- 19.4%
- EPS
- 3.775
- BVPS
- 14.834
- Gross Margin
- −6.2%
- Net Margin
- 371.4%
- D/E
- 0.05
- Current Ratio
- 2.98
- Rev Growth
- +209.2%
- Profit Growth
- +1362.5%
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 45.6M
- Charter Capital
- 456B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Vận tải
- Sub-industry
- Dịch vụ vận tải
- Company Type
- CT