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MHC

Công ty Cổ phần MHC

VietnamConstructionHàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệpVận tảiHOSECT
6.990
VND · Close 3 Nov 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
+12.2%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
6.990
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
7.841

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
  • Under financial distress the model falls back to book value.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Very Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp→Construction
Classified as construction because ICB sector “Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp” maps to the construction group.
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.

Technical details
Why this model

Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.

How it works

Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.

Best for

Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.

1
Model Inputs
Mid-Cycle EBITDA→−8.37B
Years of data→7
2
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→6.990
Calibrated value vs last close→+12.2%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
7.841
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Mid-cycle EBITDA−8.4 tỷyears of data: 7
Feeds valuation:Model inputsFinal calculation
Line item20262025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·2768045719241,1758407157245944423876376
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·2617834142129613116241
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·444432922545893984516405324021860.42
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·2043402676264314282537547231925628
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·0.318181818870.30.30.30.20.341
Net Inventories
·000.200.40459,0000.000275,000899,0000.000.01
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·000.200.40459,0000.000275,000899,0000.000.01
Other current assets
·244111322226244
Other current assets (Bn. VND)
·0000000000033
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·471138150232300293842487376194153
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)
·5133333150.20.20.001010100
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)
·3433333150.20.20.001010100
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·314571023576353440
Tangible fixed assets
·314571023575353337
Intagible fixed assets
·0000000000.70.70.70.7
Investment in properties
·13760601100024262729000
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)
·27961817162121111132831149112
Investments in associate companies
·2690.60.60.60.810.70.73425144106
Other long-term assets (Bn. VND)
·10608081611110101024556
Less: Provision for diminuation in value of long term investments
·000−11000000000
Other non-current assets
·000.0500000.30.70.000.010.51
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·00000000.30.700.010.50.5
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·7479427211,1561,475869753766642515463257229
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·95388178639906350235256150302259106
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·93235262602738723415549302157105
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·322120211535618812119120.82032
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·00.050.050.050.050.050.050.070.060.210.46
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·215315337963326211011000.3111
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·0149149375629260010010000.800
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)
·652554542517569519518510492485441198112
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·652554542517569519518510492485441198112
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·435435414414414414414376327327271136136
Other Reserves
·000000000000.10.1
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·9999999999922
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·17378876211365669712812013214−56
Minority Interest
·00000000000010
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·7479427211,1561,475869753766642515463257229
Short-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)
·9222118044932520074000000
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·435435414414414414414376327327271136136
MINORITY INTERESTSNet debt bridge
·7444430000000

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
70
Good
Accrual Quality
100
Cash Conversion
100
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
75th–90th
M −1.54 · 79th pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▼ −6.65
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
0.193
GMI
1.045
AQI
4.740
SGI
3.092
DEPI
0.606
SGAI
0.284
TATA
−0.433
LVGI
0.304

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
1.0145th pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
16.8%88th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.

The company’s Beneish M-Score is -1.5431 (79th percentile vs Vietnamese peers), which measures a composite of eight ratios used to flag aggressive accounting; the year-over-year change is -6.65 (the score moved materially versus last year). Earnings-quality component scores are mixed: accruals, cash conversion and receivables quality each score 100/100 while margin quality and revenue quality score 0/100. Other signals are supportive of solvency and operational fundamentals: Altman Z-Score = 5.07 (in the safe zone) and Piotroski F-Score = 7/9 (strong fundamentals).

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score = -1.5431 (79th percentile among Vietnamese peers). The M-Score combines eight variables (DSRI, GMI, AQI, SGI, DEPI, SGAI, TATA, LVGI) to screen for earnings manipulation; relative to Vietnamese peers the company is in the more aggressive accounting range (higher percentile).
  • AQI = 4.7397 (asset quality index). AQI measures the proportion of non-current assets and other long-term items that may be being capitalised or reclassified; an elevated AQI signals potential capitalisation/reclassification of expenses.
  • SGI = 3.0924 (sales growth index). SGI measures sales growth; a high SGI can increase pressure to meet growth expectations and is one component that raises the M-Score.
  • Receivables outside the trade cycle = 16.8% of total assets (88th percentile among Vietnamese non-financials). This line typically includes prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable and other long-term receivables and is high relative to peers, which can mask cash flows or shift income/timing.
  • Margin quality = 0/100 and Revenue quality = 0/100 in the Earnings Quality composite. These indicate weaknesses in the persistence or make-up of reported margins and in the sustainability or recording of revenue (the scoring method gives these areas no credit).
Positive Signals
  • TATA = -0.4333 (total accruals to total assets). TATA measures accrual-based earnings; a negative TATA and the Accruals quality score of 100/100 indicate low accruals and high accruals quality under the scoring rules.
  • Cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit, 3-year) = 1.01 (45th percentile). The company converts reported profit into cash at roughly parity over three years, and Cash conversion quality scored 100/100 under the earnings-quality measure.
  • Receivables quality score = 100/100 despite the high receivables-outside-trade-cycle figure; this suggests that trade receivables (versus the non-trade receivables bundle) appear of high quality in underlying calculations.
  • Altman Z-Score = 5.07, which places the company in the ‘safe’ zone for going-concern distance under the Z-Score model, and Piotroski F-Score = 7/9 indicating generally strong operating and profitability fundamentals by the F-Score checklist.
Ownership Risk

Top three institutional shareholders together hold 50.1% (Phong Sơn 18.9%, Invest An Nam 17.8%, Peaceful Land 13.4%), while the two largest individual holders hold 6.5% and 5.2%. This is a moderately concentrated institutional ownership structure; director-deal activity recorded 1 sale registration and 1 purchase registration between 2025-10-30 and 2026-10-30 (registrations, not executed trades).

To check in the filings
  • Compare the line(s) in the FY2025 balance sheet labeled 'Receivables and prepayments' or the notes ‘Loans and other receivables’ with the total-assets percentage (16.8%) to identify the components (prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable, long-term receivables) and the counterparties.
  • Reconcile the operating cash flow and profit figures in the cash flow statement and profit-and-loss note to reproduce the three-year cash conversion ratio (operating cash flow / net profit = 1.01) and see the year-by-year pattern.
  • Inspect the fixed-asset and intangible-asset schedules and the notes on capitalisation policy (capitalised expenses, reclassifications) to assess drivers of AQI = 4.7397 and whether there were large reclassifications or additions.
  • Review the revenue recognition note and segment / sales-detail disclosures to understand why revenue-quality and margin-quality scores are 0/100—check one-off revenue lines, related-party sales, and timing or return provisions.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
7/9
Strong
Z-Score
5.07
Safe Zone
Sharpe
−1.69
Negative
Composite
73
70 and above
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✓Operating CF > 0
✓ROA Rising
✓OCF > Net Income
✓Lower Leverage
✗Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✗Margin Up
✓Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden0.83×Interest Burden1.00×Op. Margin4.45×Turnover0.06×Leverage1.15=ROE25.2%
Price Risk
Momentum
−42.8%
Volatility
34.1%
Max Drawdown
−49.0%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
1.89P/E
P/B
0.48
P/S
7.03
ROE
27.5%
ROA
19.4%
EPS
3.775
BVPS
14.834
Gross Margin
−6.2%
Net Margin
371.4%
D/E
0.05
Current Ratio
2.98
Rev Growth
+209.2%
Profit Growth
+1362.5%
EV/EBITDA
—
Div Yield
—

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
45.6M
Charter Capital
456B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
Industry (ICB L3)
Vận tải
Sub-industry
Dịch vụ vận tải
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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