TIG

Real Estate

Công ty Cổ phần Tập đoàn Đầu tư Thăng Long

Bất động sảnCT

7.300

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

8.722

Current

7.300

Gap

+19.5%

ModelDCF LEVERAGE SCREEN

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Bất động sản→Real Estate

Classified as real estate because ICB sector "Bất động sản" maps to the real estate group

ModelRNAV + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 40% x (BVPS x 1.5) + 60% x DCF Value

Real estate developers in Vietnam report land banks at historical acquisition cost (Vietnamese Accounting Standards don't allow revaluation). This means book value severely understates true asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (revalued net asset value, applying a 1.5x factor to book value) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.300

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

13.60%

E/(D+E)

53.51%

Kd(1-t)

5.91%

D/(D+E)

46.49%

WACC

10.02%

+2% WACC penalty (high leverage)

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend3.00%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

40%RNAV Proxy

13.337

60%DCF Value

5.645

Blended Intrinsic

8.722

Value Decomposition

33%

67%

Explicit period (33%)Terminal value (67%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — TIG

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Weak

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

100

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-3.29

Low Risk

DSRI

1.215

GMI

0.970

AQI

1.034

SGI

0.717

DEPI

0.231

SGAI

4.079

TATA

-0.032

LVGI

0.957

The Beneish M-Score of -3.2932 indicates that TIG is unlikely to be manipulating earnings, as it is well below the manipulation threshold of -1.78. However, the concerning earnings quality metrics, particularly the low scores in receivables and revenue, suggest potential issues with revenue recognition and cash flow sustainability.

Red Flags

SGAI of 4.0786 indicates excessive selling, which may signal declining demand or overvaluation.
Earnings Quality Score of 49.6/100, particularly low eq_receivables (0.0/100) and eq_revenue (0.0/100), suggests significant concerns regarding revenue recognition and cash flow.

Positive Signals

Strong cash conversion score of 100.0/100 indicates that the company is effectively converting its earnings into cash, which is a positive sign for liquidity.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure shows significant concentration with Nguyễn Phúc Long holding 19.7%, which can lead to governance risks and potential conflicts of interest. However, the presence of institutional investors may provide some level of oversight.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor revenue recognition practices and the company's ability to maintain cash flow. Consider a cautious approach to investment until clearer signals of operational stability and governance improvements are observed.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

5/9

Neutral

Z-Score

1.17

Distress Zone

Sharpe

-0.75

Negative

Composite

Weak

Price Risk

Momentum

-28.3%

Volatility

36.0%

Max Drawdown

-50.4%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

20.14P/E

P/B0.68

P/S1.32

ROE3.5%

ROA1.7%

EPS362.53

BVPS10669.51

Gross Margin17.6%

Net Margin6.5%

D/E0.87

Current Ratio1.82

Rev Growth-28.3%

Profit Growth-60.2%

EV/EBITDA16.04

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

193.6M

Charter Capital

1936.1B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Bất động sản

Industry (ICB L3)

Bất động sản

Sub-industry

Bất động sản

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for TIG — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Nguyễn Phúc Long

Indiv

19.7%

38.1 trieu

Park Jin Ku

Indiv

9.1%

17.7 trieu

Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư Xây dựng và Quản lý Kinh doanh Bất động sản Thăng Long

Inst

7.2%

4.0 trieu

Công ty Cổ Phần Đầu Tư Tòa Nhà Công Nghệ Xanh Tig - Hde

Inst

5.9%

3.3 trieu

Công ty Cổ Phần Đầu Tư Hde Holdings

Inst

5.4%

3.0 trieu

Nguyễn Văn Nghĩa

Indiv

4.9%

9.5 trieu

PYN Elite Fund

Inst

4.9%

3.8 trieu

asean deep value fund

Inst

4.3%

3.3 trieu

asean small cap fund

Inst

3.9%

1.0 trieu

Công ty Cổ Phần Đầu Tư Xuất Nhập Khẩu Đông Đô

Inst

2.9%

2.0 trieu

Hồ Thanh Hương

Indiv

1.8%

3.4 trieu

Công ty Cổ phần Chứng khoán Đầu tư Tài chính Việt Nam

Inst

1.7%

2.9 trieu

Công ty Cổ Phần Đầu Tư Bất Động Sản Hà Thành

Inst

0.7%

400.000

Phạm Thị Hồng Nhung

Indiv

0.4%

800.000

Phạm Quang Tiến

Indiv

0.3%

150.000

Nguyễn Xuân Biểu

Indiv

0.3%

150.000

Hồ Ngọc Hải

Indiv

0.2%

446.763

Nguyễn Văn Thưởng

Indiv

0.2%

404.185

nguyen-thi-minh-chau

Indiv

0.2%

404.185

Board & Management

Nguyễn Phúc Long19.7%

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Phạm Thị Hồng Nhung0.4%

Kế toán trưởng

Hồ Ngọc Hải0.2%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Tổng Giám đốc

Trần Xuân Đại Thắng

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Đào Thị Thanh

Giám đốc Tài chính/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Nguyễn Thị Ánh Tuyết

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Minh Quân

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Nguyễn Viết Việt

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập

Hồ Thị Thu Hà

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Mạnh Đức

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Lê Văn Châu

Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Top connections

AMS17.3%STL2 links DS311.7%ASM11.2%HDG10.0%TCM10.0%MIG9.9%DSE9.7%YEG8.9%TCT8.7%ACC7.4%BIC7.3%

Computed 12/04/2026