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Utilities sector

UPC

Utilities
Công ty Cổ phần Phát triển Công viên Cây xanh và Đô thị Vũng Tàu
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt/Nước & Khí đốtCT
22.400
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
34.894
Current
22.400
Gap
+55.8%
ModelDDM 3STAGE

Valuation Breakdown

CTĐiện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốtUtility
Classified as utility because ICB sector "Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt" maps to the utility group
Model3-Stage DDM
Value = Sum of [DPS x (1+g)^t / (1+Ke)^t] + Terminal Dividend / (Ke - g_terminal)

The Dividend Discount Model values a stock based on its future dividend payments, discounted to present value. The 3-stage variant captures three phases of a company's life: high growth (years 1-3), a transition period where growth declines linearly (years 4-6), and a terminal stage of stable, perpetual growth (year 7+). As John D. Rockefeller said: "The only thing that gives me pleasure is to see my dividends coming in."

1
Cost of Equity (Ke)
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.600
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
8.70%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental equity blend7.92%
3
Model Inputs
DPS source:Actual dividends
DPS1.500
Payout ratio45.8%
4
Valuation
Dividends Per Share
1.500
Base Growth
7.92%
Cost of Equity
8.70%
Terminal Growth
3.50%
DDM Value
34.894
Value Decomposition
25%
75%
Explicit period (25%)Terminal value (75%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — UPC

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2024

27
Poor
Accrual Quality
26
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
11
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2024

-0.92
High Risk
DSRI
1.375
GMI
1.289
AQI
0.838
SGI
1.095
DEPI
1.084
SGAI
0.875
TATA
0.228
LVGI
1.171

UPC exhibits several concerning financial metrics indicating potential earnings manipulation, particularly with a Beneish M-Score of -0.9212, which is above the manipulation threshold. The earnings quality score of 27.3/100, especially low cash conversion metrics, raises further concerns about the reliability of reported earnings.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score of -0.9212 indicates potential earnings manipulation, as it is above the -1.78 threshold.
  • Earnings Quality Score of 27.3/100, with a cash conversion score of 0.0/100, suggests severe issues in converting earnings into actual cash flow.
Positive Signals
  • Receivables score of 100.0/100 indicates strong management of receivables, which could suggest effective collection practices.
Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily influenced by state and individual shareholders, with the largest shareholder being a state entity holding 36.0%. This concentration could lead to governance risks and potential conflicts of interest.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor UPC's financial disclosures and consider conducting deeper due diligence on cash flow management before making investment decisions.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
2/9
Weak
Z-Score
1.73
Distress Zone
Sharpe
-0.02
Negative
Composite
45
Weak
Price Risk
Momentum
+6.8%
Volatility
70.4%
Max Drawdown
-67.0%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2024
13.52P/E
P/B1.22
P/S0.27
ROE10.2%
ROA3.4%
EPS1925.45
BVPS18373.03
Gross Margin19.7%
Net Margin2.3%
D/E2.49
Current Ratio1.01
Rev Growth9.5%
Profit Growth-53.9%
EV/EBITDA9.87
Div Yield4.5%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
3.4M
Charter Capital
34.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt
Industry (ICB L3)
Nước & Khí đốt
Sub-industry
Tiện ích khác
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for UPC — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Ủy Ban Nhân Dân Tỉnh Bà Rịa - Vũng Tàu
State
36.0%
1.2 trieu
Lê Huy Hữu Hiệp
Indiv
31.7%
1.1 trieu
Nguyễn Đức Tài
Indiv
15.5%
528.254
Phạm Thị Thu Hà
Indiv
4.3%
145.481
Phạm Thị Bình
Indiv
1.8%
62.124
Nguyễn Hữu Thiết
Indiv
1.2%
41.341
Hoàng Văn Thao
Indiv
1.1%
35.916
nguyen-thanh-binh
Indiv
1.0%
32.500
Lê Huy Mạnh Hoạt
Indiv
0.7%
25.224
Võ Thị Thuận
Indiv
0.5%
16.016
Vương Thị Thu Hiền
Indiv
0.4%
14.616
Vũ Thị Huệ
Indiv
0.2%
7.808
Hoàng Đức Trung
Indiv
0.1%
3.754
Board & Management
Lê Huy Hữu Hiệp31.7%
Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Đức Tài15.5%
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Hoàng Văn Thao1.1%
Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Vũ Thị Huế0.2%
Kế toán trưởng
Hoàng Đức Trung0.1%
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Chu Thị Hồng Hảo
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Tài Nam
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Hồng Phúc
Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Quang Thi
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Thị Thu Huyền
Người phụ trách quản trị công ty
Computed 12/04/2026
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