UDC

Construction

Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư Xây dựng UDCons

Xây dựng và Vật liệuCT

3.100

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Overvalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

1.260

Current

3.100

Gap

-59.4%

ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Xây dựng và Vật liệu→Construction

Classified as construction because ICB sector "Xây dựng và Vật liệu" maps to the construction group

ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.100

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

12.20%

E/(D+E)

23.25%

Kd(1-t)

6.40%

D/(D+E)

76.75%

WACC

10.00%

Model Inputs

Valuation

50%EV/EBITDA Value

1.260

50%DCF Value

—

Blended Intrinsic

1.260

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — UDC

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Poor

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2024

-0.46

High Risk

DSRI

0.434

GMI

-1.947

AQI

5.595

SGI

3.584

DEPI

0.247

SGAI

0.461

TATA

-0.011

LVGI

1.069

UDC exhibits several concerning financial metrics that suggest potential earnings manipulation, particularly highlighted by its Beneish M-Score of -0.4609, which is well above the manipulation threshold. While the company shows strong accrual quality, its cash conversion and revenue metrics raise significant red flags regarding earnings sustainability.

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score of -0.4609 indicates potential earnings manipulation, as it is above the threshold of -1.78.
Earnings Quality Score of 53.9/100, with cash conversion at only 40.0/100, suggests poor cash flow relative to reported earnings.
SGI of 3.5839 indicates aggressive growth that may not be supported by underlying fundamentals.

Positive Signals

Strong receivables quality score of 100.0/100 indicates effective management of accounts receivable.
Accrual quality score of 95.8/100 suggests that the company is able to convert earnings into cash effectively.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily concentrated, with the top two shareholders (state entities) holding a combined 67.7%, which may lead to governance risks and lack of accountability in financial reporting.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor UDC's financial disclosures and consider conducting further due diligence, particularly focusing on cash flow statements and revenue recognition practices before making investment decisions.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

3/9

Weak

Z-Score

-0.42

Distress Zone

Sharpe

-0.20

Negative

Composite

Poor

Price Risk

Momentum

-2.7%

Volatility

52.0%

Max Drawdown

-41.7%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

-2.14P/E

P/B1.03

P/S0.46

ROE-38.7%

ROA-6.9%

EPS-1677.85

BVPS3499.07

Gross Margin-0.9%

Net Margin-21.2%

D/E5.17

Current Ratio0.75

Rev Growth-19.7%

Profit Growth-52.5%

EV/EBITDA95.56

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

35.0M

Charter Capital

350.0B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Xây dựng và Vật liệu

Industry (ICB L3)

Xây dựng và Vật liệu

Sub-industry

Xây dựng

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for UDC — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Ủy Ban Nhân Dân Tỉnh Bà Rịa - Vũng Tàu

State

67.7%

23.7 trieu

Sở Tài chính Thành phố Hồ Chí Minh

Indiv

67.7%

23.7 trieu

Nh Investment & Securities Co., Ltd.

Inst

7.0%

2.4 trieu

Phan Hoàng Tuấn

Indiv

4.7%

1.6 trieu

Công ty Cổ phần Chứng khoán An Bình

Inst

3.4%

1.2 trieu

Công ty Cổ phần Chứng khoán EVS

Inst

2.9%

1.0 trieu

Công ty Cổ phần Quản lý quỹ Ngân hàng TMCP Đại chúng Việt nam

Inst

0.5%

190.990

Triệu Bảo Kim

Indiv

0.2%

81.000

Trần Thái Hòa

Indiv

0.1%

42.000

Nguyễn Thế Thường

Indiv

0.1%

40.000

Board & Management

Trần Thái Hòa0.1%

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Thế Thường0.1%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Võ Thành Tài

Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phụ trách Công bố thông tin

Hồ Thanh Côn

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Tổng Giám đốc

Lê Vy Thùy

Kế toán trưởng

Võ Ngọc Dũng

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Phạm Thị Kim Ngân

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Vũ Thị Hương

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Thị Thảo

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Top connections

BRS76.9%MTV67.7%TNC67.7%BWS67.7%UPC67.7%GMA20.0%FIR15.2%PVH14.8%VRC14.5%KTL14.4%XLV11.0%MSH10.7%

Computed 12/04/2026