CDG

Construction

Công ty Cổ phần Cầu Đuống

Xây dựng và Vật liệuCT

3.500

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

11.880

Current

3.500

Gap

+239.4%

ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Xây dựng và Vật liệu→Construction

Classified as construction because ICB sector "Xây dựng và Vật liệu" maps to the construction group

ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.100

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

12.20%

E/(D+E)

84.56%

Kd(1-t)

6.36%

D/(D+E)

15.44%

WACC

11.30%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend3.00%

Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

50%EV/EBITDA Value

7.067

50%DCF Value

16.693

Blended Intrinsic

11.880

Value Decomposition

40%

60%

Explicit period (40%)Terminal value (60%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — CDG

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Fair

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

100

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-3.14

Low Risk

DSRI

0.329

GMI

1.197

AQI

1.150

SGI

1.173

DEPI

1.344

SGAI

0.410

TATA

-0.122

LVGI

0.795

CDG exhibits several concerning financial metrics, particularly its Beneish M-Score of -3.1422, which suggests a low likelihood of earnings manipulation. However, the earnings quality score of 58.5 indicates potential issues with revenue recognition and margin quality, warranting caution for investors.

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score of -3.1422 indicates a low likelihood of manipulation but is close to the threshold, suggesting scrutiny is needed.
Earnings quality metrics show 0.0/100 for eq_margin and eq_revenue, indicating severe issues with revenue recognition and profitability.

Positive Signals

Strong cash conversion score of 100.0/100 suggests that the company effectively converts its earnings into cash.
Low DSRI of 0.3295 indicates that accounts receivable are well-managed relative to sales.

Ownership Risk

The top shareholder, a state-owned enterprise with 42.7% ownership, may influence company decisions, potentially leading to conflicts between public and private interests. The high concentration of ownership could also limit shareholder influence on governance.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor CDG's earnings quality and revenue recognition practices while considering a cautious approach due to the elevated risk level. Engaging with management on transparency and governance practices is advisable.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

6/9

Neutral

Z-Score

2.49

Grey Zone

Sharpe

1.85

Excellent

Composite

Strong

Price Risk

Momentum

+193.8%

Volatility

53.9%

Max Drawdown

0.0%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

1.21P/E

P/B0.24

P/S0.44

ROE21.0%

ROA18.1%

EPS2903.92

BVPS14708.40

Gross Margin31.4%

Net Margin36.2%

D/E0.14

Current Ratio4.36

Rev Growth17.3%

Profit Growth689.7%

EV/EBITDA1.76

Div Yield17.1%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

3.5M

Charter Capital

34.6B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Xây dựng và Vật liệu

Industry (ICB L3)

Xây dựng và Vật liệu

Sub-industry

Vật liệu xây dựng & Nội thất

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for CDG — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Tổng công ty Đầu tư Phát triển Hạ tầng Đô thị UDIC

Inst

42.7%

1.5 trieu

Nguyễn Thị Phượng

Indiv

12.4%

429.389

Nguyễn Thị Liên

Indiv

5.2%

179.186

Nguyễn Văn Minh

Indiv

5.0%

174.099

Ngô Thành An

Indiv

4.1%

141.758

NGÔ VĂN CHĂM

Indiv

3.1%

106.536

Ngô Trung Hiếu

Indiv

1.5%

52.691

Vũ Thị Dung

Indiv

1.3%

46.500

Nguyễn Thị Huệ

Indiv

0.8%

29.218

Đào Thị Hiệp

Indiv

0.8%

27.931

Ngô Đức Dũng

Indiv

0.4%

14.282

Tạ Thị Thủy

Indiv

0.4%

13.207

Nguyễn Đức Tuấn

Indiv

0.2%

5.391

Board & Management

Ngô Thành An4.1%

Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

NGÔ VĂN CHĂM3.1%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Vũ Thị Dung1.3%

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Thị Huệ0.8%

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Ngô Đức Dũng0.4%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Tổng Giám đốc

Tạ Thị Thủy0.4%

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Nguyễn Đức Tuấn0.2%

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Thị Xuân Hoa

Phó phòng Kế toán

Trần Minh Quân

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Vũ Đình Trường

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Top connections

ICC79.1%XDH43.1%CH542.7%IME23.6%SDP12.5%PLP12.4%PEN12.4%TLD12.4%VNY12.4%TDT12.4%FBC12.4%THD12.4%

Computed 12/04/2026