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Cyclicals sector

NHH

Cyclicals
Công ty Cổ phần Nhựa Hà Nội
Hóa chấtCT
10.150
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
High
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
13.200
Current
10.150
Gap
+30.1%
ModelEV EBITDA MIDCYCLE

Valuation Breakdown

CTHóa chấtCyclical
Classified as cyclical because ICB sector "Hóa chất" maps to the cyclical group
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

1
Model Inputs
Mid-Cycle EBITDA247.23B
Fair EV/EBITDA6.0x
Years of data7
2
Valuation
Mid-Cycle EBITDA
247.23B
x
Fair EV/EBITDA
6.0x
-
Net Debt
-16.35B
=
Equity Value
13.200
Years of data7

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — NHH

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

86
Good
Accrual Quality
85
Cash Conversion
100
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
100
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.47
Moderate
DSRI
0.807
GMI
1.079
AQI
1.520
SGI
1.102
DEPI
0.998
SGAI
1.002
TATA
-0.037
LVGI
0.936

NHH exhibits a Beneish M-Score of -2.4681, indicating a low likelihood of earnings manipulation. However, the earnings quality score is strong at 85.5/100, suggesting solid operational performance despite some areas of concern.

Red Flags
  • The SGI of 1.1022 indicates a growth rate that exceeds sales growth, which may raise concerns about sustainability.
  • The eq_revenue score of 0.0/100 suggests potential issues with revenue recognition or reporting practices.
Positive Signals
  • Earnings Quality Score of 85.5/100 reflects strong cash conversion and receivables management, indicating operational efficiency.
  • The DSRI of 0.8068 signals that inventory levels are well-managed relative to sales, reducing the risk of overstocking.
Ownership Risk

The high concentration of ownership, with 70.9% held by Công ty Cổ phần Nhựa An Phát Xanh, may lead to governance risks and potential conflicts of interest, limiting minority shareholder influence.

Recommendation

Monitor revenue recognition practices closely due to the low eq_revenue score, and consider engaging with management regarding growth sustainability strategies given the elevated SGI.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
5/9
Neutral
Z-Score
2.67
Grey Zone
Sharpe
-0.56
Negative
Composite
64
Fair
Price Risk
Momentum
-5.7%
Volatility
25.1%
Max Drawdown
-28.7%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
10.35P/E
P/B0.68
P/S0.54
ROE7.5%
ROA5.4%
EPS1058.44
BVPS16153.16
Gross Margin17.3%
Net Margin5.2%
D/E0.39
Current Ratio1.82
Rev Growth10.2%
Profit Growth39.0%
EV/EBITDA4.35
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
113.0M
Charter Capital
1129.6B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Hóa chất
Industry (ICB L3)
Hóa chất
Sub-industry
Nhựa, cao su & sợi
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for NHH — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Công ty Cổ phần Nhựa An Phát Xanh
Inst
70.9%
77.5 trieu
Lê Xuân Lương
Indiv
10.0%
10.9 trieu
Nguyễn Thị Thành
Indiv
4.0%
260.000
Phùng Thị Khánh Hằng
Indiv
3.7%
1.3 trieu
Vũ Thị Tuyết
Indiv
0.3%
21.300
Board & Management
Bùi Thanh Nam
Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Đỗ Thị Hương Giang
Kế toán trưởng/Người phụ trách quản trị công ty
Kim Ki Min
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Phạm Thị Thanh Hiền
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Bùi Văn Hưởng
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Tạ Phúc Tâm
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Hòa Thị Thu Hà
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Mẫn Chí Trung
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Trần Hoa Tùng
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Bùi Minh Hải
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a methodology engine — not an advisor. Every number is the deterministic output of a published formula applied to public financial data. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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