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Real Estate sector

AAV

Real Estate
Công ty Cổ phần AAV Group
Bất động sảnCT
7.000
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Overvalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
6.383
Current
7.000
Gap
-8.8%
ModelDCF LEVERAGE SCREEN

Valuation Breakdown

CTBất động sảnReal Estate
Classified as real estate because ICB sector "Bất động sản" maps to the real estate group
ModelRNAV + DCF Blend
Intrinsic = 40% x (BVPS x 1.5) + 60% x DCF Value

Real estate developers in Vietnam report land banks at historical acquisition cost (Vietnamese Accounting Standards don't allow revaluation). This means book value severely understates true asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (revalued net asset value, applying a 1.5x factor to book value) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
1.300
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
13.60%
Ke
13.60%
x
E/(D+E)
82.04%
+
Kd(1-t)
6.40%
x
D/(D+E)
17.96%
=
WACC
12.31%
2
Growth Estimate
Sector Default3.00%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
4
Valuation
40%RNAV Proxy
12.766
60%DCF Value
-221
Blended Intrinsic
6.383
Value Decomposition
34%
66%
Explicit period (34%)Terminal value (66%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — AAV

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

33
Weak
Accrual Quality
11
Cash Conversion
40
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

3.91
High Risk
DSRI
0.180
GMI
-0.068
AQI
1.479
SGI
8.274
DEPI
0.535
SGAI
0.162
TATA
0.318
LVGI
2.679

AAV exhibits significant red flags indicating potential financial manipulation, as evidenced by a Beneish M-Score of 3.9112, well above the threshold of -1.78. The company's earnings quality metrics are concerning, particularly with an overall score of 32.7/100, reflecting poor accruals and revenue recognition.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score of 3.9112 indicates likely earnings manipulation.
  • Earnings Quality Score of 32.7/100, with eq_accrual at 11.0/100 and eq_margin at 0.0/100, suggests severe issues in revenue recognition and cash flow.
  • SGI of 8.2735 indicates unsustainable growth compared to industry standards, raising concerns about the sustainability of reported revenues.
Positive Signals
  • Receivables quality score of 100.0/100 indicates strong management of receivables, which could imply effective credit control.
  • Low SG&A ratio (0.1623) suggests efficient operational management relative to sales.
Ownership Risk

The concentrated ownership structure, with the largest shareholder holding 23.6%, raises governance concerns, as decisions may be heavily influenced by a few individuals, potentially leading to conflicts of interest.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and conduct further due diligence before considering an investment in AAV, focusing on the sustainability of its growth and the integrity of its financial reporting.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
4/9
Neutral
Z-Score
0.85
Distress Zone
Sharpe
-0.64
Negative
Composite
26
Poor
Price Risk
Momentum
-19.2%
Volatility
37.3%
Max Drawdown
-41.3%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
-20.93P/E
P/B0.69
P/S1.52
ROE-3.2%
ROA-1.9%
EPS-334.52
BVPS10212.92
Gross Margin3.5%
Net Margin-7.2%
D/E0.93
Current Ratio1.84
Rev Growth727.4%
Profit Growth-47.2%
EV/EBITDA76.82
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
69.0M
Charter Capital
689.9B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Bất động sản
Industry (ICB L3)
Bất động sản
Sub-industry
Bất động sản
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for AAV — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Phạm Quang Khánh
Indiv
23.6%
16.3 trieu
Phạm Thanh Tùng
Indiv
5.6%
3.9 trieu
Nguyễn Sơn Cường
Indiv
4.9%
1.6 trieu
Lê Việt Hùng
Indiv
4.9%
3.4 trieu
Nguyễn Thị Thanh Hương
Indiv
4.8%
1.5 trieu
Phạm Đức Văn
Indiv
4.8%
3.3 trieu
Hoàng Thị Hà
Indiv
4.7%
1.5 trieu
LÊ SỸ CƯỜNG
Indiv
4.3%
3.0 trieu
Nguyễn Tuấn Anh
Indiv
4.1%
2.8 trieu
Nguyễn Đức Hạnh
Indiv
4.0%
500.000
Công ty Cổ phần Chứng khoán SmartInvest
Inst
2.0%
650.000
Dương Minh Hiếu
Indiv
1.8%
225.000
Tôn Thị Liên
Indiv
0.5%
350.000
Nguyễn Văn Chuyện
Indiv
0.1%
90.635
Board & Management
Phạm Quang Khánh23.6%
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
LÊ SỸ CƯỜNG4.3%
Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị/Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Tuấn Anh4.1%
Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Tôn Thị Liên0.5%
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
NGUYỄN VĂN CHUYÊN0.1%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Thị Tư
Kế toán trưởng
Nguyễn Trọng Điều
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Phan Văn Hải
Phụ trách Công bố thông tin
Chu Xuân Hảo
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Thành Giang
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Dương Văn Điệp
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Thị Thanh Hòa
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Computed 12/04/2026
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