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QBS

Công ty Cổ phần Xuất nhập khẩu Quảng Bình

VietnamCyclicalsHóa chấtUPCOMCT
500
VND · Close 30 Oct 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
+40.3%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
500
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
701

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • Under financial distress the model falls back to book value.

Also note

  • Trading liquidity is low.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Very Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hóa chất→Cyclical
Classified as cyclical because ICB sector “Hóa chất” maps to the cyclical group.
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

Technical details
Why this model

Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.

How it works

Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.

Best for

Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.

1
Model Inputs
Mid-Cycle EBITDA→−69.33B
Years of data→7
2
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→500
Calibrated value vs last close→+40.3%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
701
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Mid-cycle EBITDA−69.3 tỷyears of data: 7
Feeds valuation:Model inputsFinal calculation
Line item20262025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·2473264625617666877749741,0941,3051,7451,012365
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·1010101114112224642543503033
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·00000.3101010121717170
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·2373163965007496457288478578781,109668220
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·129132487784832631123495958242089
Net Inventories
·0055500.7171081144127258229104
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·0055500.7171081144127258229104
Other current assets
·0.070.020.60.223411172910678
Other current assets (Bn. VND)
·00000000000474
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·89111749753677497793692972054964
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)
·00000000002100
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)
·00000000002100
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·89111321022423434535527317129958
Tangible fixed assets
·891113129141151255265186876228
Intagible fixed assets
·000080828289898784840
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)
·000415312443302752012382410
Investments in associate companies
·0000001081071060000
Other long-term assets (Bn. VND)
·000520542342352952952382410
Less: Provision for diminuation in value of long term investments
·000−0.3−5−23−97−12−136−95000
Other non-current assets
·213,8760.000.000.0227127929529930439612196
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·213,8760.000.000.022712792882993043271196
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·2553354745781,2631,2231,5481,9512,0302,2352,4651,560429
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·293129936456048311,0621,2211,4061,6881,142339
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·293129924704916907698971,1041,6001,022339
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·111114422342352373846718551,038244184
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·0.0000.080.201.02831829023350.0112
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·0000.8175113140294324302881200.6
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·0000.8164106132290324302881200.6
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)
·22630444448661861871788880982877641889
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·22630444448661861871788880982877641889
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·69369369369369369369369369369364032056
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·1616161616161610108000
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·−480−402−261−220−93−935186109801129833
Minority Interest
·000000000000.30
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·2553354745781,2631,2231,5481,9512,0302,2352,4651,560429
Short-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)
·0000007000000
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·69369369369369369369369369369364032056
Good will (Bn. VND)
·0000007006911000
MINORITY INTERESTSNet debt bridge
·000055720503000

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
31
Weak
Accrual Quality
100
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
0
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
13

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
90th–97th
M 1.35 · 97th pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▲ +1.47
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
10.000
GMI
0.003
AQI
1.000
SGI
0.003
DEPI
1.274
SGAI
10.000
TATA
−0.307
LVGI
1.261

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
50.5%99th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
0.69×
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
4Statutory test met
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.

The company's Beneish M-Score is 1.3456 (96th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +1.47, signalling accounting metrics that are more aggressive than most Vietnamese listed peers; key component extremes include DSRI 10.0000 and SGAI 10.0000 and TATA -0.3070. Earnings-quality indicators are weak overall (Earnings Quality Score 31.2/100) driven by zero scores on cash conversion, receivables quality, margin quality and low revenue quality (12.5/100); the Altman Z-Score is -1.77 (distress-zone) and the Piotroski F-Score is 4/9 (neutral).

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score 1.3456 (96th percentile vs VN peers; YoY change +1.47) — measures a composite likelihood of earnings manipulation relative to peers and prior year (note: the -1.78 US cutoff is not VN-calibrated).
  • DSRI (Days’ Sales Receivable Index) = 10.0000 — measures unusually large growth in receivables relative to sales (extreme value vs peers).
  • SGAI (Sales, General & Administrative Index) = 10.0000 — measures disproportionate growth in SG&A relative to sales, consistent with aggressive expense recognition or reclassification.
  • DEPI (Depreciation Index) = 1.2742 and LVGI (Leverage Index) = 1.2608 — changes in depreciation and leverage that can reflect accounting-policy or financing shifts affecting reported profit.
  • TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = -0.3070 — large negative accruals measure (accrual-based earnings component) which can signal timing differences in income recognition or large non-cash adjustments.
  • Receivables outside the trade cycle = 50.5% of total assets (99th percentile) — this measures the proportion of assets in prepayments, loans receivable and long-term receivables rather than normal trade receivables, a concentration that can impair revenue/receivable quality.
  • Net loss at parent level for 4 consecutive years up to FY2025 and statements show losses in each of the latest 3 years — factual loss history relevant to statutory tests (see below).
  • Accumulated losses = 0.69x paid-in capital — measures retained losses relative to contributed capital, indicating a substantial erosion of equity.
  • Altman Z-Score = -1.77 (distress zone) — measures bankruptcy distance using balance-sheet and earnings proxies and is in the distress range for the firm.
Positive Signals
  • Accruals quality = 100.0/100 — measures that reported accruals are low or of high quality relative to assets in the scoring model.
  • Earnings-quality composite provides a measurable profile (31.2/100) that separates specific weaknesses (cash conversion, receivables, margin, revenue) from strengths (accruals).
  • Piotroski F-Score = 4/9 — a neutral fundamentals score indicating mixed operational signals (neither strongly healthy nor strongly deteriorating on the 9-point F-Score checklist).
  • Owner's equity (excluding minority interest) is positive — a balance-sheet fact indicating residual equity above zero despite accumulated losses.
Ownership Risk

Ownership is moderately concentrated: the largest individual shareholder, Nguyễn Thị Thanh Hương, holds 13.3%; the largest institutional holder is VIX (Công ty Cổ phần Chứng khoán VIX) at 3.5%; remaining disclosed individuals hold small stakes. No director-deal registrations were provided in the data set.

To check in the filings
  • Compare the 2025 schedule/note for receivables and prepayments to suppliers with the line items for trade receivables to confirm the composition of the 50.5% of assets 'receivables outside the trade cycle.'
  • Inspect the related-party transactions note and loans/advances schedule to identify how much of the 'loans receivable' or long-term receivables are with related parties and the terms (maturities, interest, collateral).
  • Reconcile the total accruals and cash-flow statement: compare cash from operations in FY2025 to profit before tax and the notes on non-cash adjustments to validate the TATA = -0.3070 result.
  • Review the equity and retained earnings statements and the auditor’s report for the accumulated losses = 0.69x paid-in capital and the disclosures supporting four consecutive years of parent net losses (and the three-year loss disclosure relevant to statutory loss tests).

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
4/9
Neutral
Z-Score
−1.77
Distress Zone
Sharpe
−1.35
Negative
Composite
32
30 to 49
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✗Net Income > 0
✗Operating CF > 0
✓ROA Rising
✓OCF > Net Income
✗Lower Leverage
✗Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✓Margin Up
✗Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden1.00×Interest Burden1.00×Op. Margin−520.58×Turnover0.00×Leverage1.13=ROE−34.7%
Price Risk
Momentum
−79.2%
Volatility
179.2%
Max Drawdown
−83.3%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
—P/E
P/B
0.15
P/S
231.10
ROE
−29.6%
ROA
−26.6%
EPS
−1.130
BVPS
3.255
Gross Margin
40.4%
Net Margin
−52243.4%
D/E
0.05
Current Ratio
8.38
Rev Growth
−99.8%
Profit Growth
+44.2%
EV/EBITDA
—
Div Yield
—

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
69.3M
Charter Capital
693B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Hóa chất
Industry (ICB L3)
Hóa chất
Sub-industry
Sản phẩm hóa dầu, Nông dược & Hóa chất khác
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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