ASG

Construction

Công ty Cổ phần Tập đoàn ASG

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp/Vận tảiCT

16.750

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Overvalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

8.905

Current

16.750

Gap

-46.8%

ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp→Construction

Classified as construction because ICB sector "Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp" maps to the construction group

ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.100

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

12.20%

E/(D+E)

60.67%

Kd(1-t)

5.29%

D/(D+E)

39.33%

WACC

10.00%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend2.52%

Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

50%EV/EBITDA Value

15.502

50%DCF Value

2.308

Blended Intrinsic

8.905

Value Decomposition

35%

65%

Explicit period (35%)Terminal value (65%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — ASG

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Fair

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

100

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.49

Moderate

DSRI

0.973

GMI

0.883

AQI

1.060

SGI

1.245

DEPI

1.030

SGAI

0.995

TATA

-0.028

LVGI

1.105

ASG exhibits a Beneish M-Score of -2.4852, indicating a low likelihood of earnings manipulation. However, the earnings quality score of 67.2 suggests potential concerns, particularly in revenue and margin metrics, which could signal underlying operational issues.

Red Flags

Earnings quality score of 67.2/100, with revenue and margin metrics both at 0.0/100, indicating potential issues with revenue recognition and profitability.
SGI at 1.2452 suggests aggressive growth that may not be sustainable, raising concerns about the company's ability to maintain its revenue trajectory.

Positive Signals

Beneish M-Score of -2.4852 is below the manipulation threshold of -1.78, indicating a lower likelihood of earnings manipulation.
Strong cash conversion metrics (eq_cash_conv at 100.0/100) suggest effective cash management despite lower earnings quality.

Ownership Risk

The top shareholders are predominantly individual investors, which may lead to less stability in governance and decision-making. The concentration of ownership among a few individuals could also pose risks related to potential conflicts of interest.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor ASG's revenue recognition practices and operational efficiency. Consider a cautious approach, potentially waiting for improved earnings quality metrics before making significant investment decisions.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

7/9

Strong

Z-Score

1.90

Grey Zone

Sharpe

-0.79

Negative

Composite

Weak

Price Risk

Momentum

-8.6%

Volatility

25.1%

Max Drawdown

-17.8%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

19.10P/E

P/B1.10

P/S0.64

ROE5.9%

ROA2.3%

EPS877.13

BVPS15265.36

Gross Margin18.0%

Net Margin3.3%

D/E0.72

Current Ratio2.36

Rev Growth24.5%

Profit Growth184.3%

EV/EBITDA7.72

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

90.8M

Charter Capital

907.8B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp

Industry (ICB L3)

Vận tải

Sub-industry

Kho bãi, hậu cần và bảo dưỡng

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for ASG — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Nguyễn Minh Tuấn

Indiv

13.4%

12.2 trieu

Dương Đức Tính

Indiv

13.1%

11.9 trieu

Công ty Cổ Phần Tập Đoàn Đầu Tư Apl

Inst

9.2%

8.3 trieu

Phạm Thị Hằng

Indiv

8.5%

7.7 trieu

Công ty Cổ Phần Đầu Tư Và Tư Vấn Long Thành

Inst

6.5%

5.9 trieu

Công ty Cổ phần Logistics Hàng không

Inst

4.9%

4.4 trieu

Vũ Hoài Chang

Indiv

1.0%

931.314

Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư Thương mại và Dịch vụ Quốc tế

Inst

0.9%

709.552

Phạm Văn Hà

Indiv

0.2%

176.289

Board & Management

Dương Đức Tính13.1%

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Phạm Văn Hà0.2%

Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Thị Lê Hằng

Kế toán trưởng/Phụ trách Công bố thông tin

Nguyễn Văn Thắng

Giám đốc Chi nhánh

Phạm Xuân Phương

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Trần Thị Nhường

Người phụ trách quản trị công ty/Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Trần Thị Bích Ngọc

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập

Nguyễn Quang Đạt

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Bùi Thị Lệ Hằng

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập

Lý Lâm Duy

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Trương Minh Hoàng

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Top connections

ILS27.0%LCC21.5%V1215.5%TLT15.5%VIH13.4%HLY13.4%TVA13.4%DFC13.4%AGM13.4%VC613.4%L1213.4%CVN13.4%

Computed 12/04/2026