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Construction sector

L12

Construction
Công ty Cổ phần Licogi 12
Xây dựng và Vật liệuCT
4.500
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
40.267
Current
4.500
Gap
+500.0%
ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CTXây dựng và Vật liệuConstruction
Classified as construction because ICB sector "Xây dựng và Vật liệu" maps to the construction group
ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend
Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
1.100
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
12.20%
Ke
12.20%
x
E/(D+E)
26.20%
+
Kd(1-t)
5.80%
x
D/(D+E)
73.80%
=
WACC
10.00%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental firm blend2.26%
Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
4
Valuation
50%EV/EBITDA Value
10.262
50%DCF Value
70.272
Blended Intrinsic
40.267
Value Decomposition
35%
65%
Explicit period (35%)Terminal value (65%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — L12

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2024

68
Fair
Accrual Quality
56
Cash Conversion
100
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
63
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2024

-2.71
Low Risk
DSRI
0.588
GMI
1.539
AQI
0.385
SGI
1.668
DEPI
0.896
SGAI
0.647
TATA
-0.116
LVGI
0.979

L12 exhibits a Beneish M-Score of -2.7119, indicating a low likelihood of earnings manipulation. However, the high SGI of 1.6683 and low revenue quality score of 0.0/100 raise concerns about growth sustainability and revenue recognition practices.

Red Flags
  • SGI of 1.6683 suggests aggressive growth that may not be supported by actual revenue generation.
  • Revenue quality score of 0.0/100 indicates potential issues with revenue recognition, posing a risk to financial integrity.
Positive Signals
  • Beneish M-Score of -2.7119 is well below the manipulation threshold of -1.78, suggesting a lower likelihood of earnings manipulation.
  • Earnings Quality Score of 68.3/100 reflects decent overall earnings quality, particularly strong cash conversion at 100.0/100.
Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is relatively concentrated, with the largest shareholder holding 23.3%. This concentration may lead to governance risks, particularly if decisions favor the majority shareholder over minority interests.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor revenue recognition practices and growth sustainability. Consider a cautious approach to investment until clearer signals of revenue stability and governance improvements are observed.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
7/9
Strong
Z-Score
1.39
Distress Zone
Sharpe
-0.27
Negative
Composite
65
Fair
Price Risk
Momentum
-10.6%
Volatility
72.3%
Max Drawdown
-35.3%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2024
14.28P/E
P/B0.31
P/S0.08
ROE2.2%
ROA0.6%
EPS287.10
BVPS13054.99
Gross Margin6.3%
Net Margin0.6%
D/E2.61
Current Ratio1.21
Rev Growth66.8%
Profit Growth30.3%
EV/EBITDA4.98
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
7.0M
Charter Capital
70.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Xây dựng và Vật liệu
Industry (ICB L3)
Xây dựng và Vật liệu
Sub-industry
Xây dựng
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for L12 — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Dương Xuân Quang
Indiv
23.3%
1.6 trieu
Tổng Công ty LICOGI
Inst
8.5%
596.700
Dương Xuân Tứ
Indiv
7.8%
542.615
Phạm Thị Bích Thủy
Indiv
5.5%
382.130
Hoàng Minh Tuấn
Indiv
4.1%
360.129
Nguyễn Thị Chung
Indiv
3.4%
240.000
Nguyễn Minh Tuấn
Indiv
3.0%
209.889
Phùng Văn Thanh
Indiv
2.0%
100.000
nguyen-van-an
Indiv
0.5%
33.400
Ngô Hương Lan
Indiv
0.2%
9.984
Đặng Thị Tâm
Indiv
0.2%
10.629
Board & Management
Dương Xuân Quang23.3%
Tổng Giám đốc/Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Dương Xuân Tứ7.8%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Hoàng Minh Tuấn4.1%
Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Thị Chung3.4%
Kế toán trưởng/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Phùng Văn Thanh2.0%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Ngô Hương Lan0.2%
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Đặng Thị Tâm0.2%
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
NGUYỄN HỮU TUẤN
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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