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Consumer sector

HSL

Consumer
Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư Phát triển Thực phẩm Hồng Hà
Thực phẩm và đồ uống/Sản xuất thực phẩmCT
5.000
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Fairly Valued
Very Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
4.963
Current
5.000
Gap
-0.7%
ModelFCF DCF

Valuation Breakdown

CTThực phẩm và đồ uốngConsumer
Classified as consumer because ICB sector "Thực phẩm và đồ uống" maps to the consumer group
ModelFCF-Based DCF
Value = Sum of [FCF / (1+WACC)^t] + Terminal Value / (1+WACC)^n

A classic Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the actual cash a business generates after all operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted back to today's value using WACC. This is the gold standard of intrinsic valuation: it values the company based on what it can actually deliver to shareholders, independent of market sentiment.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.800
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
10.10%
Ke
10.10%
x
E/(D+E)
95.16%
+
Kd(1-t)
5.04%
x
D/(D+E)
4.84%
=
WACC
10.00%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental firm blend4.00%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
Base FCF6.98B
Projection years10
4
Valuation
Base FCF
6.98B
Growth Rate
4.00%
WACC
10.00%
Terminal Growth
4.00%
DCF Value
4.963
Value Decomposition
43%
57%
Explicit period (43%)Terminal value (57%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — HSL

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

13
Poor
Accrual Quality
8
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
17
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
52

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

3.00
High Risk
DSRI
5.769
GMI
1.707
AQI
0.767
SGI
0.332
DEPI
2.074
SGAI
2.977
TATA
0.342
LVGI
0.930

HSL exhibits significant red flags indicating potential financial manipulation, as evidenced by a Beneish M-Score of 2.996, well above the threshold of -1.78. The earnings quality score of 13.2/100 further underscores concerns regarding the company's financial health and transparency.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score of 2.996 indicates high likelihood of earnings manipulation.
  • DSRI of 5.7694 suggests significant increases in receivables relative to sales, raising concerns about revenue recognition.
  • Earnings Quality Score of 13.2/100 indicates poor earnings quality, particularly with an accrual score of 7.8/100 and cash conversion score of 0.0/100.
Positive Signals
  • SGI of 0.3323 indicates a decrease in sales growth, which may reflect a more conservative approach to revenue recognition.
  • The presence of multiple individual shareholders may indicate a level of scrutiny and oversight from diverse stakeholders.
Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is fragmented with no single dominant shareholder, which may reduce the risk of concentrated control but could also lead to misalignment of interests among shareholders.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and conduct further due diligence before considering an investment in HSL, particularly focusing on the company's revenue recognition practices and overall financial transparency.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
3/9
Weak
Z-Score
8.69
Safe Zone
Sharpe
0.91
Positive
Composite
46
Weak
Price Risk
Momentum
+71.5%
Volatility
55.7%
Max Drawdown
-59.6%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
1667.19P/E
P/B0.62
P/S5.92
ROE0.0%
ROA0.0%
EPS4.26
BVPS11362.39
Gross Margin4.7%
Net Margin0.4%
D/E0.05
Current Ratio14.77
Rev Growth-66.8%
Profit Growth-97.6%
EV/EBITDA-241.27
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
38.6M
Charter Capital
385.7B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Thực phẩm và đồ uống
Industry (ICB L3)
Sản xuất thực phẩm
Sub-industry
Thực phẩm
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for HSL — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Đỗ Hà Anh
Indiv
6.2%
2.4 trieu
Ogiwara Kotaro
Indiv
5.0%
786.000
Nguyễn Tuấn Tú
Indiv
4.5%
1.4 trieu
Võ Thanh Hoài
Indiv
4.2%
1.4 trieu
Phạm Thanh Lâm
Indiv
4.0%
1.3 trieu
Hoàng Thị Mai Anh
Indiv
4.0%
1.3 trieu
Nguyễn Tuấn Dũng
Indiv
3.9%
1.5 trieu
Nguyễn Đình Quản
Indiv
3.7%
1.2 trieu
Nguyễn Xuân Giáp
Indiv
3.7%
630.425
nguyen-thi-huong
Indiv
3.6%
450.000
Lê Văn Đức
Indiv
3.1%
1.2 trieu
Nguyễn Thị Thùy Dương
Indiv
2.9%
925.000
nguyen-viet-linh
Indiv
2.0%
693.400
Dương Quỳnh Hoa
Indiv
1.2%
204.375
Trần Ngọc Lan
Indiv
1.0%
388.300
Lê Thị Khuyên
Indiv
1.0%
390.895
nguyen-tien-nam
Indiv
0.8%
136.250
Bùi Quý Ba
Indiv
0.6%
109.000
Nguyễn Tuấn Cường
Indiv
0.6%
109.000
Nguyễn Anh Dũng
Indiv
0.4%
68.125
Đỗ Lê Oanh
Indiv
0.4%
68.125
Lê Thị Năm
Indiv
0.2%
27.250
Board & Management
Nguyễn Tuấn Dũng3.9%
Tổng Giám đốc/Phụ trách Công bố thông tin
Lê Văn Đức3.1%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Việt Linh2.0%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Trần Ngọc Lan1.0%
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Tiến Nam0.8%
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Tuấn Cường0.6%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập
Lê Anh Tuấn
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Văn Quốc
Người phụ trách quản trị công ty
Nguyễn Thị Tường An
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
HOÀNG THỊ KIM LAN
Kế toán trưởng
Nguyễn Thị Tuyết Nhung
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Dương Quân Anh
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Đặng Quốc Hưng
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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