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Utilities sector

GCB

Utilities
Công ty Cổ phần PETEC Bình Định
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt/Nước & Khí đốtCT
6.000
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
15.086
Current
6.000
Gap
+151.4%
ModelDDM 3STAGE

Valuation Breakdown

CTĐiện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốtUtility
Classified as utility because ICB sector "Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt" maps to the utility group
Model3-Stage DDM
Value = Sum of [DPS x (1+g)^t / (1+Ke)^t] + Terminal Dividend / (Ke - g_terminal)

The Dividend Discount Model values a stock based on its future dividend payments, discounted to present value. The 3-stage variant captures three phases of a company's life: high growth (years 1-3), a transition period where growth declines linearly (years 4-6), and a terminal stage of stable, perpetual growth (year 7+). As John D. Rockefeller said: "The only thing that gives me pleasure is to see my dividends coming in."

1
Cost of Equity (Ke)
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.600
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
8.70%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental equity blend2.00%
3
Model Inputs
DPS source:Actual dividends
DPS800
Payout ratio74.8%
4
Valuation
Dividends Per Share
800
Base Growth
2.00%
Cost of Equity
8.70%
Terminal Growth
3.50%
DDM Value
15.086
Value Decomposition
26%
74%
Explicit period (26%)Terminal value (74%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — GCB

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2024

25
Poor
Accrual Quality
86
Cash Conversion
40
Receivables
0
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2024

1.13
High Risk
DSRI
1.426
GMI
1.210
AQI
8.977
SGI
0.750
DEPI
0.916
SGAI
1.213
TATA
0.036
LVGI
1.027

GCB exhibits significant red flags indicating potential earnings manipulation, as evidenced by a Beneish M-Score of 1.1343, well above the manipulation threshold of -1.78. The company's earnings quality score of 25.1/100, particularly low in receivables and revenue metrics, raises concerns about the reliability of reported earnings.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score of 1.1343 indicates likely earnings manipulation.
  • Earnings Quality Score of 25.1/100, with 0.0/100 in receivables and revenue metrics, suggests poor earnings quality.
Positive Signals
  • DSRI of 1.4260 indicates that the company is managing its inventory levels relative to sales, which could be a sign of operational efficiency.
Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is highly concentrated, with the top four shareholders holding over 60% of the shares, which may lead to governance risks and potential conflicts of interest.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and conduct further due diligence, particularly focusing on cash flow analysis and operational performance, before considering any investment in GCB.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
1/9
Weak
Z-Score
2.81
Grey Zone
Sharpe
-1.22
Negative
Composite
31
Weak
Price Risk
Momentum
-62.2%
Volatility
134.4%
Max Drawdown
-77.8%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2024
-19.15P/E
P/B0.42
P/S0.03
ROE-1.8%
ROA-0.3%
EPS-338.23
BVPS18777.09
Gross Margin2.5%
Net Margin-0.1%
D/E5.25
Current Ratio1.06
Rev Growth-24.9%
Profit Growth-120.1%
EV/EBITDA80.25
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
4.0M
Charter Capital
40.4B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt
Industry (ICB L3)
Nước & Khí đốt
Sub-industry
Phân phối xăng dầu & khí đốt
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for GCB — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Nguyễn Hoàng Anh
Indiv
31.5%
1.3 trieu
Ngô Thị Thu Hương
Indiv
12.4%
500.000
Lê Ngọc Thế Phiệt
Indiv
7.6%
306.549
Nguyễn Thị Thùy Dương
Indiv
6.4%
257.100
Mai Xuân Hùng
Indiv
5.1%
205.400
nguyen-hoang-nam
Indiv
4.8%
193.500
Phạm Thanh Thúy
Indiv
4.6%
186.549
Huỳnh Đức Trường
Indiv
0.5%
20.716
Board & Management
Nguyễn Văn Phàn
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Thanh Hải
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Đỗ Khoa Mỹ Linh
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Khổng Thị Hà
Kế toán trưởng
Nguyễn Văn Ánh
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Trọng Phát
Tổng Giám đốc
Hoàng Anh Tuấn
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Lương Duy Vân
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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