BTG

Construction

Công ty Cổ phần Bao bì Tiền Giang

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp/Hàng công nghiệpCT

8.700

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Overvalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

2.201

Current

8.700

Gap

-74.7%

ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp→Construction

Classified as construction because ICB sector "Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp" maps to the construction group

ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.100

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

12.20%

E/(D+E)

93.27%

Kd(1-t)

6.40%

D/(D+E)

6.73%

WACC

11.81%

Growth Estimate

Sector Default3.00%

Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

50%EV/EBITDA Value

—

50%DCF Value

2.201

Blended Intrinsic

2.201

Value Decomposition

42%

58%

Explicit period (42%)Terminal value (58%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — BTG

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Poor

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.96

Low Risk

DSRI

0.638

GMI

1.193

AQI

1.860

SGI

0.903

DEPI

0.932

SGAI

1.144

TATA

-0.112

LVGI

0.868

BTG exhibits several concerning financial metrics, particularly in earnings quality and potential manipulation indicators. The Beneish M-Score of -2.9644 suggests a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, but the overall earnings quality score of 20.8/100 raises significant concerns.

Red Flags

Earnings Quality Score of 20.8/100 indicates poor earnings quality, particularly with an eq_margin and eq_revenue both at 0.0/100.
The DSRI of 0.6378 suggests potential revenue recognition issues, as it is below the threshold of 1, indicating that receivables may not be growing in line with sales.

Positive Signals

The Beneish M-Score of -2.9644 is below the manipulation threshold of -1.78, indicating a lower likelihood of earnings manipulation.
The ownership concentration with 60.0% held by Tổng Công ty Lương thực Miền Nam suggests strong institutional support, which can provide stability.

Ownership Risk

The high concentration of ownership by institutions (71.1% combined) reduces the risk of erratic market behavior but may also lead to governance issues if interests diverge from minority shareholders.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor BTG's earnings quality metrics and consider a cautious approach, potentially waiting for improved financial transparency and performance before making significant investments.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

5/9

Neutral

Z-Score

7.15

Safe Zone

Sharpe

-0.12

Negative

Composite

Poor

Price Risk

Momentum

-6.3%

Volatility

165.7%

Max Drawdown

-54.2%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

-6.30P/E

P/B0.66

P/S0.28

ROE-10.0%

ROA-9.2%

EPS-1381.20

BVPS13160.35

Gross Margin4.6%

Net Margin-4.5%

D/E0.07

Current Ratio12.21

Rev Growth-9.7%

Profit Growth-56.5%

EV/EBITDA-9.16

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

1.2M

Charter Capital

11.9B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp

Industry (ICB L3)

Hàng công nghiệp

Sub-industry

Containers & Đóng gói

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for BTG — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Tổng Công ty Lương thực Miền Nam

Inst

60.0%

714.000

Công ty Cổ Phần Đầu Tư Và Thương Mại Quốc Tế Abc

Inst

11.1%

132.100

Lê Quang Huy

Indiv

6.0%

70.900

Nguyễn Thị Thanh Vân

Indiv

2.5%

30.000

Lê Thị Kim Hiếu

Indiv

0.9%

10.350

Nguyễn Thị Như Mai

Indiv

0.2%

2.210

Board & Management

Trần Văn Tưởng

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Giám đốc

Trần Bảy

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Phạm Anh Vũ

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Hồng Nhân

Phó Giám đốc

Lâm Anh Tuấn

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Văn Phố

Phó Giám đốc

Trương Văn Húa

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Tấn Hưng

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Thị Ngọc Hương

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Lê Thị Thanh Hằng

Trưởng phòng Tài chính - Kế toán

Đoàn Thanh Phong

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Top connections

KGM83.3%TCJ65.4%MCF60.0%FCS60.0%SAF60.0%BLT60.0%CMN60.0%AFX60.0%VOS60.0%BMD15.6%VNI7.0%HD26.0%

Computed 12/04/2026