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Consumer sector

CEN

Consumer
Công ty Cổ phần CENCON Việt Nam
Bán lẻCT
1.700
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
13.583
Current
1.700
Gap
+500.0%
ModelFCF DCF

Valuation Breakdown

CTBán lẻConsumer
Classified as consumer because ICB sector "Bán lẻ" maps to the consumer group
ModelFCF-Based DCF
Value = Sum of [FCF / (1+WACC)^t] + Terminal Value / (1+WACC)^n

A classic Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the actual cash a business generates after all operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted back to today's value using WACC. This is the gold standard of intrinsic valuation: it values the company based on what it can actually deliver to shareholders, independent of market sentiment.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.800
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
10.10%
Ke
10.10%
x
E/(D+E)
98.81%
+
Kd(1-t)
4.31%
x
D/(D+E)
1.19%
=
WACC
10.03%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental firm blend4.00%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
Base FCF15.91B
Projection years10
4
Valuation
Base FCF
15.91B
Growth Rate
4.00%
WACC
10.03%
Terminal Growth
4.00%
DCF Value
13.583
Value Decomposition
43%
57%
Explicit period (43%)Terminal value (57%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — CEN

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

43
Weak
Accrual Quality
72
Cash Conversion
100
Receivables
0
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.77
Low Risk
DSRI
0.949
GMI
1.121
AQI
1.016
SGI
0.836
DEPI
0.482
SGAI
0.998
TATA
-0.071
LVGI
0.298

CEN exhibits signs of potential earnings manipulation as indicated by a Beneish M-Score of -2.765, which is below the manipulation threshold of -1.78. While the earnings quality score of 42.9 suggests some strengths in cash conversion, significant weaknesses in receivables and revenue metrics raise concerns about the reliability of reported earnings.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score of -2.765 indicates potential earnings manipulation, significantly below the threshold of -1.78.
  • Earnings quality metrics show 0.0/100 in receivables, margin, and revenue, indicating severe weaknesses in these areas.
Positive Signals
  • Cash conversion score of 100.0/100 indicates strong cash flow generation relative to earnings.
  • DSRI of 0.9486 suggests that inventory levels are well-managed relative to sales.
Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is highly concentrated among individual shareholders, which may lead to governance risks and potential conflicts of interest. The top five shareholders collectively hold 40.7% of the company, which could limit minority shareholders' influence.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and conduct further due diligence, particularly focusing on the company's revenue recognition practices and overall governance. Monitoring future earnings reports for consistency with cash flows is advisable.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
5/9
Neutral
Z-Score
18.20
Safe Zone
Sharpe
-2.04
Negative
Composite
44
Weak
Price Risk
Momentum
-60.0%
Volatility
89.4%
Max Drawdown
-73.0%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
158.06P/E
P/B0.17
P/S0.46
ROE0.1%
ROA0.1%
EPS10.63
BVPS10082.32
Gross Margin5.4%
Net Margin0.3%
D/E0.01
Current Ratio64.07
Rev Growth-16.3%
Profit Growth1276.3%
EV/EBITDA31.49
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
21.7M
Charter Capital
217.1B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Bán lẻ
Industry (ICB L3)
Bán lẻ
Sub-industry
Bán lẻ phức hợp
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for CEN — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Trần Đăng Hải
Indiv
9.6%
2.1 trieu
Nguyễn Tiến Thành
Indiv
9.2%
120.000
Triệu Tiến Duẩn
Indiv
6.9%
90.000
Trần Mạnh Sơn
Indiv
5.1%
1.1 trieu
Công ty TNHH MTV Duyên Hải Lào Cai
Inst
4.9%
560.000
Công ty TNHH MTV Đầu Tư Và Thương Mại Vinh Phúc
Inst
4.7%
62.000
Tưởng Thị Bích Thạch
Indiv
4.2%
480.000
nguyen-thi-le
Indiv
4.2%
903.100
Phạm Xuân Thủy
Indiv
3.7%
810.000
nguyen-xuan-bac
Indiv
2.0%
442.700
Trần Ngọc Mai
Indiv
1.8%
24.000
Board & Management
Trần Mạnh Sơn5.1%
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Vũ Minh Chính
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Trần Thị Hà
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Mạc Thị Hoa
Kế toán trưởng
Nguyễn Hữu Thường
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Lê Văn Bình
Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Vũ Thị Hải Yến
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a methodology engine — not an advisor. Every number is the deterministic output of a published formula applied to public financial data. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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