CKD
CyclicalsValuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Valuation Track Record
Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — CKD
Earnings Quality
Fiscal year 2025
Financial Forensics
Beneish M-Score · 2025
CKD displays several concerning indicators that suggest potential earnings manipulation, particularly with a Beneish M-Score of -1.2074, which is above the manipulation threshold of -1.78. The earnings quality score of 39.8/100, especially the cash conversion score of 0.0/100, raises significant red flags regarding the sustainability of reported earnings.
- Beneish M-Score of -1.2074 suggests potential earnings manipulation, as it is above the threshold of -1.78.
- Earnings Quality Score of 39.8/100 indicates poor earnings quality, with a cash conversion score of 0.0/100 highlighting severe issues in cash flow relative to earnings.
- DSRI of 1.4575 indicates that accounts receivable are growing faster than revenue, which may suggest aggressive revenue recognition practices.
- Gross Margin Index (GMI) of 1.2224 suggests that gross margins are improving, which could indicate operational efficiency.
- SGAI of 0.7328 indicates that selling, general, and administrative expenses are under control relative to sales growth.
The high concentration of ownership by Tổng Công ty LICOGI at 89.1% presents a risk of governance issues and lack of minority shareholder protections, which is common in Vietnamese state-owned enterprises (SOEs).
Investors should exercise caution and closely monitor CKD's financial disclosures and cash flow statements. It may be prudent to wait for improved earnings quality metrics and clearer governance structures before considering investment.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
Company Overview
// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK
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