Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 5.600
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 7.793
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
Also note
- The model’s gap was capped before calibration.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 3 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Very Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.
Technical details
Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.
Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 12.6%84th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The company's Beneish M‑Score is -1.6071 (77th percentile versus Vietnamese peers), indicating relatively more aggressive accounting signals than most local peers though it does not by itself identify manipulation. Earnings‑quality metrics are mixed: an overall score of 48.4/100 with very poor cash conversion (0/100) and elevated total accruals (TATA = 0.1414), while margin quality is strong (100/100). The Altman Z‑Score is 1.60 (in the distress zone) and the Piotroski F‑Score is 5/9 (neutral).
- Beneish M‑Score = -1.6071 (77th percentile among Vietnamese companies). The M‑Score combines eight ratios to flag earnings manipulation risk; being in the 77th percentile shows more aggressive signals than most Vietnamese peers even though the US cutoff (-1.78) is not directly calibrated to Vietnam.
- TATA (total accruals to total assets) = 0.1414. This measures the level of accruals relative to assets; a high positive value indicates earnings are supported by accruals rather than cash.
- Cash conversion component of the Earnings Quality Score = 0.0/100. This measures the conversion of accounting profit into operating cash flows; a 0 score is a clear weakness in cash realization relative to reported earnings.
- Altman Z‑Score = 1.60 (distress zone). This is a bankruptcy‑distance measure combining profitability, leverage, liquidity, and activity; 1.60 lies in the zone typically interpreted as higher financial distress risk.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 12.6% of total assets (84th percentile among Vietnamese non‑financial companies). The line includes prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable and other long‑term receivables, suggesting a relatively large stock of non‑trade receivables on the balance sheet.
- Margin quality = 100.0/100. This component measures persistence and stability of margins; the company shows strong reported margin quality.
- Receivables quality = 69.5/100. While there are material receivables outside the trade cycle, the receivables quality score is above average, indicating some reasonable indicators for collectibility or composition.
- Piotroski F‑Score = 5/9. This is a neutral signal on fundamentals (profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operating efficiency) rather than a clear deterioration in operating fundamentals.
- No accumulated losses and owner's equity (excluding minority interest) is positive; statutory loss tests in FY2025 were not met. These are direct facts from the published statements indicating the company did not trigger the statutory loss thresholds for delisting under Decree 155/2020 (as amended).
Ownership is concentrated: Nguyễn Tiến Đạt holds 24.0% and Cdc Holding 18.6%, with three other individuals at 8.0% each. Director/insider registration activity in the past 12 months shows one sale registration (1 trader; 1 without a volume) and no purchase registrations; registrations are declarations of intent to trade, not executed trades.
- Compare FY2025 'Prepayments to suppliers' and 'Loans receivable' lines in the balance sheet to the related‑party note to see how much of the 12.6% of assets in receivables outside the trade cycle are with related parties.
- Reconcile profit before tax to ‘Net cash flows from operating activities’ in the cash flow statement for FY2025 to quantify the cash conversion shortfall that produced the Cash Conversion score = 0/100.
- Examine the auditor's report and the notes on subsequent events and going concern for discussion around the Altman Z‑Score area of financial distress (Z = 1.60), and check management's going‑concern disclosures.
- Review the schedule or note that explains 'Other long‑term receivables' and their aging or repayment terms in FY2025 to assess collectibility and maturity profiles of non‑trade receivables.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.37
- P/S
- 0.08
- ROE
- 7.4%
- ROA
- 1.9%
- EPS
- 1.057
- BVPS
- 14.639
- Gross Margin
- 3.7%
- Net Margin
- 1.6%
- D/E
- 1.22
- Current Ratio
- 1.23
- Rev Growth
- +22.5%
- Profit Growth
- +17.0%
- EV/EBITDA
- 10.65
- Div Yield
- 3.6%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 41.1M
- Charter Capital
- 411B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Sub-industry
- Xây dựng
- Company Type
- CT