CKA

Cyclicals

Công ty Cổ phần Cơ khí An Giang

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp/Công nghiệp nặngCT

65.200

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Overvalued

Very Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

42.203

Current

65.200

Gap

-35.3%

ModelEV EBITDA MIDCYCLE

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp→Cyclical

Classified as cyclical because ICB sector "Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp" maps to the cyclical group

ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle

Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

Model Inputs

Mid-Cycle EBITDA→3.53B

Fair EV/EBITDA→34.8x

Years of data→7

Valuation

Mid-Cycle EBITDA

3.53B

Fair EV/EBITDA

34.8x

Net Debt

-16.05B

Equity Value

42.203

Years of data→7

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — CKA

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Poor

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-1.17

High Risk

DSRI

1.153

GMI

1.034

AQI

0.928

SGI

0.888

DEPI

0.909

SGAI

1.052

TATA

0.278

LVGI

1.006

CKA exhibits several concerning indicators of earnings quality and potential manipulation, as evidenced by a Beneish M-Score of -1.1724 and an earnings quality score of only 9.7/100. While the company is not currently flagged for manipulation, the metrics suggest significant risks in financial reporting.

Red Flags

Earnings Quality Score of 9.7/100 indicates poor earnings quality, particularly low scores in receivables (0.0/100) and revenue (0.0/100), raising concerns about revenue recognition practices.
The DSRI of 1.1525 suggests a potential increase in days sales receivable, which could indicate aggressive revenue recognition or collection issues.

Positive Signals

Beneish M-Score of -1.1724 is below the manipulation threshold of -1.78, indicating that while there are risks, the company is not currently flagged for manipulation.
The ownership structure shows a strong institutional presence with 47.4% held by Tổng Công ty Máy động lực và Máy nông nghiệp Việt Nam, which may provide stability and oversight.

Ownership Risk

The significant institutional ownership (47.4%) may mitigate some risks associated with individual shareholders, but the concentration of ownership could also lead to governance issues if interests diverge.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor CKA's earnings quality metrics and consider conducting further due diligence on revenue recognition practices. It may be prudent to adopt a cautious approach until improvements in earnings quality are observed.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

4/9

Neutral

Z-Score

4.41

Safe Zone

Sharpe

0.73

Positive

Composite

Weak

Price Risk

Momentum

+20.5%

Volatility

33.8%

Max Drawdown

-36.8%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

3.29P/E

P/B1.54

P/S1.32

ROE49.8%

ROA33.8%

EPS19840.58

BVPS42481.99

Gross Margin10.6%

Net Margin40.1%

D/E0.48

Current Ratio2.62

Rev Growth-11.2%

Profit Growth174.2%

EV/EBITDA63.73

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

3.3M

Charter Capital

32.9B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp

Industry (ICB L3)

Công nghiệp nặng

Sub-industry

Máy công nghiệp

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for CKA — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Tổng Công ty Máy động lực và Máy nông nghiệp Việt Nam

Inst

47.4%

1.6 trieu

nguyen-chi-thanh

Indiv

3.7%

120.508

Lê Thanh Vân

Indiv

3.1%

103.143

Trần Văn Thái

Indiv

1.8%

58.275

Huỳnh Văn An

Indiv

1.6%

53.198

Tạ Hán Beo

Indiv

1.4%

46.209

Lâm Quốc Bình

Indiv

1.2%

40.000

Trần Thị Muội

Indiv

0.9%

30.000

Nguyễn Ngọc Minh

Indiv

0.6%

19.107

Quách Kim Long

Indiv

0.6%

18.354

Phan Thị Tuyết Vân

Indiv

0.5%

15.254

Nguyễn Thanh Vi

Indiv

0.3%

9.034

Board & Management

Nguyễn Chí Thành3.7%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Giám đốc

Lê Thanh Vân3.1%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Giám đốc

Trần Văn Thái1.8%

Phó Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Huỳnh Văn An1.6%

Phó Giám đốc

Quách Kim Long0.6%

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Thanh Vi0.3%

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Thành Nghề

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Phan Thị Ngọc Lan Thanh

Trưởng phòng Tài chính - Kế toán

Trần Quân Anh

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Top connections

FT12 links FBC51.0%ISG14.5%DTA4.8%HLY3.7%HUB3.7%SHS3.7%NST3.7%ACB3.7%MBB3.7%RAL1.8%MPC1.8%

Computed 12/04/2026