RAL

Consumer

Công ty Cổ phần Bóng đèn Phích nước Rạng Đông

Hàng cá nhân & Gia dụng/Hàng gia dụngCT

87.000

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Medium

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

563.941

Current

87.000

Gap

+500.0%

ModelFCF DCF

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hàng cá nhân & Gia dụng→Consumer

Classified as consumer because ICB sector "Hàng cá nhân & Gia dụng" maps to the consumer group

ModelFCF-Based DCF

Value = Sum of [FCF / (1+WACC)^t] + Terminal Value / (1+WACC)^n

A classic Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the actual cash a business generates after all operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted back to today's value using WACC. This is the gold standard of intrinsic valuation: it values the company based on what it can actually deliver to shareholders, independent of market sentiment.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

0.800

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

10.10%

E/(D+E)

39.76%

Kd(1-t)

7.36%

D/(D+E)

60.24%

WACC

10.00%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend4.52%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Base FCF→824.34B

Projection years→10

Valuation

Base FCF

824.34B

Growth Rate

4.52%

WACC

10.00%

Terminal Growth

4.00%

DCF Value

563.941

Value Decomposition

43%

57%

Explicit period (43%)Terminal value (57%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — RAL

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Fair

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

100

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.79

Low Risk

DSRI

0.930

GMI

1.015

AQI

2.272

SGI

0.761

DEPI

1.064

SGAI

1.028

TATA

-0.123

LVGI

0.962

RAL exhibits a Beneish M-Score of -2.7942, indicating a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is below the threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality metrics reveal significant weaknesses, particularly in receivables and revenue recognition, which could pose risks to financial transparency.

Red Flags

Earnings Quality Score of 54.8/100, with eq_receivables at a concerning 11.2/100, suggesting potential issues in revenue recognition.
The eq_revenue score of 0.0/100 indicates that revenue recognition practices may not align with cash flows, raising concerns about the sustainability of reported earnings.

Positive Signals

The DSRI of 0.9304 suggests that inventory levels are well managed relative to sales, which is a positive indicator of operational efficiency.
A high eq_cash_conv score of 100.0/100 indicates strong cash conversion, suggesting that the company is capable of converting its earnings into cash effectively.

Ownership Risk

The top shareholder, Công Đoàn Công ty Cổ Phần Bóng Đèn Phích Nước Rạng Đông, holds a significant 40.5% stake, which may lead to concentrated decision-making and potential conflicts of interest, particularly in a state-owned enterprise context.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor RAL's receivables and revenue recognition practices, as these are significant red flags. It may be prudent to adopt a cautious approach until further clarity on earnings sustainability is achieved.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

4/9

Neutral

Z-Score

1.69

Distress Zone

Sharpe

-1.24

Negative

Composite

Fair

Price Risk

Momentum

-16.7%

Volatility

12.7%

Max Drawdown

-26.0%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

6.08P/E

P/B0.65

P/S0.35

ROE10.8%

ROA4.4%

EPS15336.42

BVPS144333.38

Gross Margin22.5%

Net Margin5.7%

D/E1.38

Current Ratio1.58

Rev Growth-23.4%

Profit Growth-39.1%

EV/EBITDA5.37

Div Yield2.7%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

23.5M

Charter Capital

235.5B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Hàng cá nhân & Gia dụng

Industry (ICB L3)

Hàng gia dụng

Sub-industry

Thiết bị gia dụng

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for RAL — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Công Đoàn Công ty Cổ Phần Bóng Đèn Phích Nước Rạng Đông

Inst

40.5%

9.5 trieu

Lê Đình Hưng

Indiv

9.3%

2.2 trieu

Vietnam Holding Ltd

Inst

4.0%

456.920

Công ty Cổ phần Chứng khoán Rồng Việt

Inst

4.0%

455.386

KITMC Worldwide Vietnam RSP Balanced Fund

Inst

2.3%

261.943

Nguyễn Đoàn Thăng

Indiv

2.2%

526.457

Nguyễn Đoàn Kết

Indiv

1.0%

229.528

Nguyễn Hoàng Kiên

Indiv

0.9%

200.488

Nguyễn Thị Kim Liên

Indiv

0.7%

175.000

Nguyễn Thị Kim Linh

Indiv

0.7%

175.000

Vương Bích Sơn

Indiv

0.2%

21.842

Lê Quốc Khánh

Indiv

0.2%

21.842

Trần Trung Tưởng

Indiv

0.1%

35.069

Board & Management

Lê Thị Kim Yến11.1%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Đoàn Thăng2.2%

Tổng Giám đốc

Nguyễn Đoàn Kết1.0%

Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Trần Trung Tưởng0.1%

Phó Tổng Giám đốc Kỹ thuật/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Quách Thành Chương

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Hoàng Trung

Kế toán trưởng

Lê Thị Ngọc

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Ngô Ngọc Thanh

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Top connections

HDP15.8%VFR12.5%GND10.5%AMC9.3%DCT6.5%TDH6.2%DBC6.2%VGS5.1%BCC5.0%GDT2 links PVT2 links DRC2 links

Computed 12/04/2026