NST

Consumer

Công ty Cổ phần Ngân Sơn

Hàng cá nhân & Gia dụng/Thuốc láCT

12.400

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Overvalued

Very Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

11.575

Current

12.400

Gap

-6.7%

ModelFCF DCF

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hàng cá nhân & Gia dụng→Consumer

Classified as consumer because ICB sector "Hàng cá nhân & Gia dụng" maps to the consumer group

ModelFCF-Based DCF

Value = Sum of [FCF / (1+WACC)^t] + Terminal Value / (1+WACC)^n

A classic Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the actual cash a business generates after all operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted back to today's value using WACC. This is the gold standard of intrinsic valuation: it values the company based on what it can actually deliver to shareholders, independent of market sentiment.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

0.800

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

10.10%

E/(D+E)

48.45%

Kd(1-t)

6.34%

D/(D+E)

51.55%

WACC

10.00%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend5.35%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Base FCF→18.31B

Projection years→10

Valuation

Base FCF

18.31B

Growth Rate

5.35%

WACC

10.00%

Terminal Growth

4.00%

DCF Value

11.575

Value Decomposition

43%

57%

Explicit period (43%)Terminal value (57%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — NST

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Poor

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-1.02

High Risk

DSRI

1.257

GMI

0.901

AQI

0.913

SGI

1.087

DEPI

0.982

SGAI

1.053

TATA

0.305

LVGI

1.579

NST exhibits several concerning indicators of financial manipulation, particularly with a Beneish M-Score of -1.0237, which is above the manipulation threshold of -1.78. The low earnings quality score of 22.2/100, especially in cash conversion and receivables, raises significant concerns about the reliability of reported earnings.

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score of -1.0237 indicates potential earnings manipulation, as it is above the threshold of -1.78.
Earnings Quality Score of 22.2/100, with eq_cash_conv and eq_receivables both at 0.0/100, suggests severe issues with cash flow and receivables management.

Positive Signals

The SGI of 1.0873 indicates modest revenue growth, which could be a positive sign if supported by genuine demand.
The eq_margin of 63.1/100 suggests that the company maintains a reasonable profit margin despite other weaknesses.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily concentrated, with Tổng Công ty Thuốc lá Việt Nam holding 57.7%, which could lead to governance issues and less accountability. This concentration may also limit minority shareholders' influence.

Recommendation

Investors should approach NST with caution, considering the elevated risk of earnings manipulation. It is advisable to monitor future earnings reports closely and assess cash flow performance before making any investment decisions.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

2/9

Weak

Z-Score

2.99

Grey Zone

Sharpe

0.42

Positive

Composite

Weak

Price Risk

Momentum

+23.5%

Volatility

43.1%

Max Drawdown

-17.1%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

5.76P/E

P/B0.73

P/S0.15

ROE12.8%

ROA6.5%

EPS2171.34

BVPS17225.96

Gross Margin16.9%

Net Margin2.6%

D/E1.36

Current Ratio1.45

Rev Growth8.7%

Profit Growth32.8%

EV/EBITDA6.83

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

11.2M

Charter Capital

112.0B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Hàng cá nhân & Gia dụng

Industry (ICB L3)

Thuốc lá

Sub-industry

Thuốc lá

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for NST — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Tổng Công ty Thuốc lá Việt Nam

Inst

57.7%

6.5 trieu

Công ty TNHH Một thành viên Thuốc lá Thăng Long

Inst

6.5%

722.640

Công ty TNHH MTV Thuốc lá Sài Gòn

Inst

6.1%

681.346

Công Ty TNHH Một Thành Viên Viện Thuốc Lá

Inst

5.1%

566.101

afc vietnam fund

Inst

5.0%

555.100

Công ty TNHH Một Thành Viên Thuốc Lá Thanh Hoá

Inst

3.9%

436.468

Nguyễn Văn Thịnh

Indiv

2.0%

193.114

Đào Mạnh Thái

Indiv

0.6%

60.053

Công Ty TNHH Một Thành Viên Thuốc Lá Bắc Sơn.

Inst

0.2%

25.902

Vương Đình Hải

Indiv

0.1%

10.328

Board & Management

Nguyễn Anh Tuấn

Kế toán trưởng

Nguyễn Chí Thanh

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Người phụ trách quản trị công ty/Giám đốc

Nguyễn Nam Giang

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Đỗ Toàn Thắng

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Đức Thanh

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Trần Anh Tâm

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát/Phụ trách Công bố thông tin

Ngô Thị Thu Phúc

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Đỗ Điệp Anh

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Trần Đức Dũng

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Top connections

HJC3 links CLC3 links BMI57.7%DAD18.9%FIR15.2%EVE14.0%XLV11.0%HPP10.1%LBM8.6%ABI6.0%PV25.7%DTA2 links

Computed 12/04/2026