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Cyclicals sector

BRR

Cyclicals
Công ty Cổ phần Cao su Bà Rịa
Hóa chấtCT
17.600
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Fairly Valued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
17.970
Current
17.600
Gap
+2.1%
ModelEV EBITDA MIDCYCLE

Valuation Breakdown

CTHóa chấtCyclical
Classified as cyclical because ICB sector "Hóa chất" maps to the cyclical group
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

1
Model Inputs
Mid-Cycle EBITDA93.33B
Fair EV/EBITDA20.7x
Years of data7
2
Valuation
Mid-Cycle EBITDA
93.33B
x
Fair EV/EBITDA
20.7x
-
Net Debt
-87.76B
=
Equity Value
17.970
Years of data7

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — BRR

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

62
Fair
Accrual Quality
78
Cash Conversion
30
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
100
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2020

0.36
High Risk
DSRI
3.970
GMI
1.025
AQI
0.949
SGI
0.968
DEPI
0.883
SGAI
0.949
TATA
0.031
LVGI
1.006

The Beneish M-Score of 0.3566 indicates a significant risk of earnings manipulation, as it exceeds the threshold of -1.78. Additionally, the earnings quality score of 49.2/100, particularly low cash conversion and receivables metrics, raises concerns about the sustainability of reported earnings.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score of 0.3566 indicates potential earnings manipulation risk.
  • Earnings Quality Score of 49.2/100, with cash conversion at 44.2/100 and receivables at 0.0/100, suggests poor earnings quality.
Positive Signals
  • DSRI of 3.9698 indicates potential revenue growth, but at high risk of overstatement.
  • High eq_margin score of 97.0/100 suggests strong profitability if revenues are accurate.
Ownership Risk

The overwhelming ownership by Tập đoàn Công nghiệp Cao su Việt Nam at 97.5% creates a lack of minority shareholder influence, increasing the risk of decisions that may not align with broader shareholder interests.

Recommendation

Investors should approach BRR with caution, closely monitoring for any changes in financial reporting and governance practices. Consider waiting for improved earnings quality metrics and a more balanced ownership structure before making investment decisions.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
6/9
Neutral
Z-Score
6.56
Safe Zone
Sharpe
-0.02
Negative
Composite
50
Weak
Price Risk
Momentum
-1.9%
Volatility
59.5%
Max Drawdown
-33.7%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
13.19P/E
P/B1.32
P/S3.91
ROE10.2%
ROA9.0%
EPS1334.73
BVPS13333.01
Gross Margin26.5%
Net Margin29.6%
D/E0.14
Current Ratio2.63
Rev Growth27.2%
Profit Growth17.7%
EV/EBITDA20.27
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
112.5M
Charter Capital
1125.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Hóa chất
Industry (ICB L3)
Hóa chất
Sub-industry
Nhựa, cao su & sợi
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for BRR — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Tập đoàn Công nghiệp Cao su Việt Nam
Inst
97.5%
109.7 trieu
Board & Management
Nguyễn Thị Thúy Hằng
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Huỳnh Thị Từ Ái
Người phụ trách quản trị công ty/Phụ trách Công bố thông tin
Huỳnh Quang Trung
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Tổng Giám đốc/Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Công Nhựt
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Minh Đoan
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Phạm Văn Khiên
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Ngọc Thịnh
Kế toán trưởng
Phùng Thế Minh
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Huỳnh Thị Hoa
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Thị Hải
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Hoàng Quốc Hưng
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a methodology engine — not an advisor. Every number is the deterministic output of a published formula applied to public financial data. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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