DGC

Cyclicals

Công ty Cổ phần Tập đoàn Hóa chất Đức Giang

Hóa chấtCT

51.800

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Medium

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

69.140

Current

51.800

Gap

+33.5%

ModelEV EBITDA MIDCYCLE

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hóa chất→Cyclical

Classified as cyclical because ICB sector "Hóa chất" maps to the cyclical group

ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle

Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

Model Inputs

Mid-Cycle EBITDA→3200.21B

Fair EV/EBITDA→8.4x

Years of data→7

Valuation

Mid-Cycle EBITDA

3200.21B

Fair EV/EBITDA

8.4x

Net Debt

505.68B

Equity Value

69.140

Years of data→7

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — DGC

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Fair

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

100

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-1.87

Moderate

DSRI

1.091

GMI

1.108

AQI

1.530

SGI

1.142

DEPI

1.045

SGAI

0.786

TATA

0.059

LVGI

1.582

DGC exhibits several concerning financial metrics indicating potential earnings manipulation, particularly with a Beneish M-Score of -1.8706, which is below the manipulation threshold. However, the earnings quality score of 68.2 suggests reasonable performance in certain areas, though cash conversion remains weak.

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score of -1.8706 indicates potential earnings manipulation as it is below the threshold of -1.78.
Low cash conversion score of 51.1/100 suggests potential issues in converting earnings to cash, raising concerns about liquidity.
Revenue quality score of 0.0/100 indicates significant issues in revenue recognition practices.

Positive Signals

Strong receivables quality score of 100.0/100 indicates effective management of accounts receivable.
High margin quality score of 100.0/100 suggests strong profitability in operations.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is concentrated among a few individuals, with the largest shareholder holding 18.4%. This concentration can lead to governance risks and potential conflicts of interest.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor cash flow performance and revenue recognition practices. Consider a cautious approach to investment until further transparency is provided regarding earnings quality.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

3/9

Weak

Z-Score

6.30

Safe Zone

Sharpe

-1.08

Negative

Composite

Weak

Price Risk

Momentum

-35.4%

Volatility

48.1%

Max Drawdown

-43.9%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

6.50P/E

P/B1.31

P/S1.75

ROE21.3%

ROA17.1%

EPS7965.09

BVPS39652.17

Gross Margin31.5%

Net Margin26.9%

D/E0.27

Current Ratio3.95

Rev Growth14.1%

Profit Growth1.3%

EV/EBITDA6.09

Div Yield5.8%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

379.8M

Charter Capital

3797.8B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Hóa chất

Industry (ICB L3)

Hóa chất

Sub-industry

Sản phẩm hóa dầu, Nông dược & Hóa chất khác

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for DGC — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Đào Hữu Huyền

Indiv

18.4%

69.8 trieu

Ngô Thị Ngọc Lan

Indiv

6.6%

25.2 trieu

Đào Hữu Kha

Indiv

6.0%

22.7 trieu

nguyen-thi-hong-lan

Indiv

3.8%

14.3 trieu

Đào Hữu Duy Anh

Indiv

3.0%

11.5 trieu

Vietnam Enterprise Investments Limited

Inst

1.9%

7.4 trieu

Đào Hồng Hạnh

Indiv

1.4%

5.1 trieu

amersham industries limited

Inst

1.3%

4.8 trieu

CTBC Vietnam Equity Fund

Inst

1.2%

4.7 trieu

Norges Bank

Inst

0.8%

2.9 trieu

Đào Thị Quyên

Indiv

0.6%

2.2 trieu

Hanoi Investments Holdings Limited

Inst

0.6%

2.2 trieu

Quách Tiến Nhất

Indiv

0.5%

1.8 trieu

Wareham Group Limited

Inst

0.4%

1.6 trieu

Lê Thị Lựu

Indiv

0.4%

1.6 trieu

Phan Thị Nhung

Indiv

0.4%

148.723

Bùi Thị Hà Thu

Indiv

0.3%

1.2 trieu

Đào Việt Hưng

Indiv

0.3%

122.009

Vũ Minh Thuyết

Indiv

0.2%

248.067

Đào Thị Huyên

Indiv

0.2%

762.605

DC Developing Markets Strategies Public Limited Company

Inst

0.2%

746.000

Đào Hữu Tu

Indiv

0.2%

742.222

Đào Thị Mai

Indiv

0.2%

704.754

Phạm Văn Hùng

Indiv

0.2%

731.546

Vũ Nhất Tâm

Indiv

0.1%

167.795

Veil Holdings Limited

Inst

0.1%

200.000

Nguyễn Thị Năm

Indiv

0.1%

430.261

Board & Management

Đào Hữu Huyền18.4%

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị/Phụ trách Công bố thông tin

Đào Hữu Duy Anh3.0%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Tổng Giám đốc

Phạm Văn Hùng0.2%

Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Đào Thị Mai0.2%

Kế toán trưởng

Vũ Văn Ngọ

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Phạm Thị Thoa

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Văn Kiên

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Văn Quang

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Khúc Ngọc Giảng

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Top connections

IME2 links PAT6 links TSB5 links ITQ11.9%GKM6.5%DQC2 links ACB2 links TTZ5.2%VTS5.0%PVD4 links FRT4 links NKG4.9%

Computed 12/04/2026