PVD
CyclicalsValuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Valuation Track Record
Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — PVD
Earnings Quality
Fiscal year 2025
Financial Forensics
Beneish M-Score · 2025
PVD exhibits a Beneish M-Score of -2.0973, indicating a lower likelihood of earnings manipulation, yet several components raise concerns about earnings quality. The company's ownership structure is heavily dominated by state-owned enterprises, which may pose additional governance risks.
- DSRI of 1.3459 indicates potential issues with inventory management, suggesting overproduction or unsold inventory.
- EQ Receivables score of 25.0/100 highlights significant concerns regarding the collectability of receivables, which could impact cash flow.
- SGI of 1.1727 suggests that sales growth may not be sustainable, potentially leading to future revenue recognition issues.
- Earnings Quality Score of 77.1/100 indicates relatively strong overall earnings quality, particularly in cash conversion (100.0/100).
- Low GMI of 0.9904 suggests stable gross margins, which is a positive indicator for operational efficiency.
The top shareholder, Tập Đoàn Công Nghiệp – Năng Lượng Quốc Gia Việt Nam, holds 50.4% of shares, indicating significant control that may limit minority shareholder influence and raise governance concerns.
Investors should monitor PVD's inventory and receivables closely, as these are critical areas of concern. Consider a cautious approach to investment, given the elevated risks, while remaining aware of the company's strengths in earnings quality.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
Company Overview
// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK
> mapping common ownership for PVD — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate