ECI

Technology

Công ty Cổ phần Tập đoàn ECI

Truyền thôngCT

9.400

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

17.794

Current

9.400

Gap

+89.3%

ModelDCF PE BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Technology

Defaulted to technology (no specific sector mapping found)

ModelDCF + P/E Blend

Intrinsic = 60% x DCF Value + 40% x (Fair P/E x EPS)

Technology companies combine high growth potential with the risk of overvaluation. This model blends DCF (60% weight, capturing long-duration growth) with a P/E sanity check (40% weight, capping speculative excess). The DCF uses the slowest growth decay (0.05) recognizing that tech companies can sustain competitive advantages longer. The P/E component applies a dynamic ceiling: max P/E = min(growth% x 1.5, 30), preventing runaway valuations.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.300

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

13.60%

E/(D+E)

71.27%

Kd(1-t)

6.18%

D/(D+E)

28.73%

WACC

11.47%

Growth Estimate

Sector Default8.00%

Growth decays 5%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Max fair P/E→16x

Valuation

60%DCF Value

17.794

40%P/E Value

—

Blended Intrinsic

17.794

Value Decomposition

46%

54%

Explicit period (46%)Terminal value (54%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — ECI

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2024

Poor

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2024

-0.44

High Risk

DSRI

3.236

GMI

2.062

AQI

0.356

SGI

0.188

DEPI

0.825

SGAI

4.189

TATA

0.200

LVGI

0.881

ECI exhibits significant red flags indicating potential financial manipulation, as evidenced by a Beneish M-Score of -0.4412, which is well above the manipulation threshold of -1.78. The company's earnings quality score of 24.3/100 further highlights concerns regarding earnings sustainability and cash conversion.

Red Flags

DSRI of 3.2362 indicates potential overstatement of receivables, suggesting aggressive revenue recognition practices.
GMI of 2.0622 suggests declining gross margins, raising concerns about profitability sustainability.
SGAI of 4.1891 indicates excessive growth in selling, general, and administrative expenses relative to revenue growth, which could signal inefficiencies or mismanagement.

Positive Signals

The company has a relatively low TATA of 0.1999, indicating a lower likelihood of aggressive accounting practices related to total accruals.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is concentrated, with the top three shareholders holding a combined 57% stake, which may lead to governance risks and potential conflicts of interest, particularly with state-owned enterprises involved.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and conduct further due diligence before considering an investment in ECI, focusing on improving transparency and governance practices. Monitoring future earnings reports for signs of improved cash conversion and margin stability is essential.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

4/9

Neutral

Z-Score

2.36

Grey Zone

Sharpe

-1.94

Negative

Composite

Poor

Price Risk

Momentum

-64.9%

Volatility

84.7%

Max Drawdown

-70.6%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2024

-37.08P/E

P/B0.58

P/S5.14

ROE-1.5%

ROA-1.0%

EPS-256.21

BVPS16487.11

Gross Margin11.1%

Net Margin-13.9%

D/E0.40

Current Ratio3.91

Rev Growth-81.4%

Profit Growth91.9%

EV/EBITDA-1.23

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

1.9M

Charter Capital

18.6B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Truyền thông

Industry (ICB L3)

Truyền thông

Sub-industry

Sách, ấn bản & sản phẩm văn hóa

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for ECI — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Công ty TNHH MTV Nhà Xuất Bản Giáo Dục Việt Nam

Inst

21.0%

390.700

Đỗ Thị Thu Trang

Indiv

18.0%

316.251

Công ty Cổ phần Tập Đoàn Đầu Tư Tài Chính Mya Capital

Inst

18.0%

316.251

Sử Duy Bin

Indiv

10.2%

180.000

AFC Global Fund

Inst

9.7%

180.000

Trần Bảo Nguyên

Indiv

9.4%

165.000

Iwai Cosmo Securities Co., Ltd

Inst

4.9%

86.100

Hoàng Xuân Trung

Indiv

4.8%

85.000

Ngô Anh Thư

Indiv

4.3%

75.900

nguyen-anh-tuan

Indiv

4.3%

75.664

Ngô Phương Anh

Indiv

4.3%

75.451

Ngô Thị Thanh Huyền

Indiv

3.6%

64.300

Lê Huy

Indiv

2.6%

46.551

Nguyễn Tuấn Nam

Indiv

2.3%

40.100

Đặng Thị Như

Indiv

0.4%

7.900

Lê Phú

Indiv

0.3%

6.100

Phạm Văn Hải

Indiv

0.2%

4.118

nguyen-thi-hong-loan

Indiv

0.2%

4.000

Nguyễn Thị Giáng Hương

Indiv

0.2%

3.000

Board & Management

Đặng Thị Như0.4%

Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Kế toán trưởng

Nguyễn Thị Hồng Loan0.2%

Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Trần Ngọc Điệp

Phó Giám đốc

Nguyễn Thị Ánh Hồng

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Tạ Thị Thanh Huyền

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Cao Văn Dũng

Phó Giám đốc

Nguyễn Nam Phóng

Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Ngô Trọng Vinh

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Ngô Anh Phương

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Trọng Hà

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Top connections

SMN53.1%STC52.5%NBE46.0%SED2 links DAD2 links EID2 links ADC2 links DAE29.4%EBS3 links SGN25.0%WCS23.6%DNM22.7%

Computed 12/04/2026