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Consumer sector

GCF

Consumer
Công ty Cổ phần Thực phẩm G.C
Thực phẩm và đồ uống/Sản xuất thực phẩmCT
21.900
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
High
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
46.334
Current
21.900
Gap
+111.6%
ModelFCF DCF

Valuation Breakdown

CTThực phẩm và đồ uốngConsumer
Classified as consumer because ICB sector "Thực phẩm và đồ uống" maps to the consumer group
ModelFCF-Based DCF
Value = Sum of [FCF / (1+WACC)^t] + Terminal Value / (1+WACC)^n

A classic Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the actual cash a business generates after all operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted back to today's value using WACC. This is the gold standard of intrinsic valuation: it values the company based on what it can actually deliver to shareholders, independent of market sentiment.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.800
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
10.10%
Ke
10.10%
x
E/(D+E)
64.22%
+
Kd(1-t)
5.74%
x
D/(D+E)
35.78%
=
WACC
10.00%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental firm blend5.50%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
Base FCF111.79B
Projection years10
4
Valuation
Base FCF
111.79B
Growth Rate
5.50%
WACC
10.00%
Terminal Growth
4.00%
DCF Value
46.334
Value Decomposition
43%
57%
Explicit period (43%)Terminal value (57%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — GCF

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

78
Good
Accrual Quality
61
Cash Conversion
100
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
30
Revenue Quality
86

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.94
Low Risk
DSRI
0.792
GMI
0.997
AQI
0.524
SGI
1.206
DEPI
1.043
SGAI
0.865
TATA
-0.098
LVGI
0.478

GCF exhibits a Beneish M-Score of -2.9432, indicating a low likelihood of earnings manipulation. However, the earnings quality score of 77.5/100, particularly low margins and accruals, suggests potential concerns about sustainable profitability.

Red Flags
  • Earnings quality margin score at 30.0/100 indicates weak profitability relative to revenue.
  • High concentration of ownership with 52.9% held by a single institution raises concerns about governance and potential conflicts of interest.
Positive Signals
  • Strong cash conversion rate of 100.0/100 indicates effective cash management.
  • Low DSRI of 0.7920 suggests that the company is managing its inventory efficiently.
Ownership Risk

The top shareholder, an institution, holds over half of the shares, which may lead to governance risks and reduced minority shareholder influence. This concentration can also pose a risk in decision-making processes.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor GCF's earnings quality metrics and consider diversifying their holdings to mitigate risks associated with ownership concentration. Conducting further due diligence on management practices is advisable.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
7/9
Strong
Z-Score
8.22
Safe Zone
Sharpe
0.54
Positive
Composite
83
Strong
Price Risk
Momentum
+39.8%
Volatility
62.1%
Max Drawdown
-32.0%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
12.51P/E
P/B1.84
P/S1.82
ROE18.3%
ROA13.5%
EPS2350.12
BVPS15980.48
Gross Margin35.4%
Net Margin14.6%
D/E0.21
Current Ratio4.42
Rev Growth19.1%
Profit Growth50.9%
EV/EBITDA7.92
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
43.2M
Charter Capital
432.5B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Thực phẩm và đồ uống
Industry (ICB L3)
Sản xuất thực phẩm
Sub-industry
Thực phẩm
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for GCF — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Công ty Cổ phần Nguyên liệu Á Châu AIG
Inst
52.9%
22.9 trieu
Nguyễn Văn Thự
Indiv
31.2%
13.5 trieu
Bùi Thị Mai Hiên
Indiv
2.9%
1.0 trieu
Nguyễn Thị Minh Tú
Indiv
2.5%
754.070
Nguyễn Thị Thanh Tâm
Indiv
2.0%
710.160
Đồng Thị Nụ
Indiv
0.4%
138.900
Nguyễn Thị Châu
Indiv
0.3%
106.600
Nguyễn Văn Thự
Indiv
0.3%
90.200
Nguyễn Diệp Pháp
Indiv
0.1%
56.540
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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