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Construction sector

EMS

Construction
Tổng Công ty Chuyển phát nhanh Bưu điện - Công ty Cổ phần
Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp/Vận tảiCT
19.000
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
43.347
Current
19.000
Gap
+128.1%
ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CTHàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệpConstruction
Classified as construction because ICB sector "Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp" maps to the construction group
ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend
Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
1.100
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
12.20%
Ke
12.20%
x
E/(D+E)
42.91%
+
Kd(1-t)
6.22%
x
D/(D+E)
57.09%
=
WACC
10.00%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental firm blend2.01%
Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
4
Valuation
50%EV/EBITDA Value
28.699
50%DCF Value
57.995
Blended Intrinsic
43.347
Value Decomposition
35%
65%
Explicit period (35%)Terminal value (65%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — EMS

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

75
Good
Accrual Quality
94
Cash Conversion
67
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
100
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2024

-2.68
Low Risk
DSRI
0.976
GMI
1.103
AQI
0.994
SGI
1.028
DEPI
0.888
SGAI
0.863
TATA
-0.053
LVGI
1.045

The Beneish M-Score of -2.6791 indicates a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is well below the threshold of -1.78. Additionally, the earnings quality score of 79.7/100 reflects strong cash conversion and receivables management, suggesting solid operational performance.

Red Flags
  • The SGI of 1.0284 indicates a slight growth in sales, which is positive, but the EQ Revenue score of 0.0/100 raises concerns about revenue recognition practices.
Positive Signals
  • The earnings quality metrics show a perfect cash conversion rate of 100.0/100, indicating that the company is effectively converting its earnings into cash.
Ownership Risk

With 84.1% ownership held by Tổng Công ty Bưu Điện Việt Nam, there is a significant concentration of control, which may pose risks related to governance and decision-making transparency.

Recommendation

Investors should monitor revenue recognition practices closely due to the low EQ Revenue score, while also considering the strong cash conversion as a positive indicator for operational health.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
5/9
Neutral
Z-Score
3.91
Safe Zone
Sharpe
-0.45
Negative
Composite
60
Fair
Price Risk
Momentum
-18.6%
Volatility
53.3%
Max Drawdown
-39.7%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
6.83P/E
P/B1.42
P/S0.24
ROE21.4%
ROA9.1%
EPS3308.31
BVPS15891.91
Gross Margin15.3%
Net Margin3.5%
D/E1.33
Current Ratio1.43
Rev Growth6.8%
Profit Growth5.9%
EV/EBITDA3.68
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
21.0M
Charter Capital
210.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
Industry (ICB L3)
Vận tải
Sub-industry
Chuyển phát nhanh
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for EMS — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Tổng Công ty Bưu Điện Việt Nam
Inst
84.1%
17.7 trieu
Công ty Cổ phần Hacisco
Inst
8.2%
1.7 trieu
Board & Management
Vũ Thị Mai Hồng
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Trần Anh Tuấn
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Trần Thị Quỳnh Vân
Phụ trách Công bố thông tin
Phạm Tất Thành
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Thị Thanh Tâm
Kế toán trưởng
Nguyễn Thị Hằng
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Đặng Hải Ngọc
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Lê Quốc Anh
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Trần Thanh Hà
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Chu Thị Lan Hương
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Bùi Quốc Bảo
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Đinh Tiến Vịnh
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Hồng Long
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Hà Thị Hòa
Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Computed 12/04/2026
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