SJG

Construction

Tổng Công ty Sông Đà

Xây dựng và Vật liệuCT

20.600

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

37.568

Current

20.600

Gap

+82.4%

ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Xây dựng và Vật liệu→Construction

Classified as construction because ICB sector "Xây dựng và Vật liệu" maps to the construction group

ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.100

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

12.20%

E/(D+E)

40.94%

Kd(1-t)

6.62%

D/(D+E)

59.06%

WACC

10.00%

Growth Estimate

Sector Default3.00%

Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

50%EV/EBITDA Value

25.077

50%DCF Value

50.060

Blended Intrinsic

37.568

Value Decomposition

35%

65%

Explicit period (35%)Terminal value (65%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — SJG

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Good

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.36

Moderate

DSRI

0.777

GMI

1.146

AQI

1.125

SGI

1.200

DEPI

0.990

SGAI

0.729

TATA

-0.011

LVGI

0.914

SJG exhibits a Beneish M-Score of -2.3561, indicating a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is below the threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality score of 71.5/100, particularly low revenue quality, raises concerns about the sustainability of earnings in the context of Vietnamese market practices.

Red Flags

Earnings quality margin is significantly low at 23.7/100, suggesting potential issues with profitability despite high accrual and cash conversion scores.
SGI at 1.2004 indicates aggressive growth which may not be supported by revenue quality, raising concerns about the sustainability of growth.

Positive Signals

Beneish M-Score of -2.3561 suggests a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, which is a positive signal for investors.
High accrual (95.6/100) and cash conversion (96.3/100) scores indicate strong operational efficiency in converting earnings into cash.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily skewed towards the state with 99.8% held by Tổng Công ty Đầu Tư Và Kinh Doanh Vốn Nhà Nước, which may limit minority shareholder influence and raise concerns about governance and transparency.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor SJG's revenue quality and growth sustainability, considering a cautious approach given the elevated risk level while leveraging the positive cash conversion metrics.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

7/9

Strong

Z-Score

1.23

Distress Zone

Sharpe

0.47

Positive

Composite

Strong

Price Risk

Momentum

+25.3%

Volatility

75.7%

Max Drawdown

-39.9%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

7.14P/E

P/B1.09

P/S1.32

ROE16.9%

ROA5.5%

EPS2729.50

BVPS17832.42

Gross Margin20.4%

Net Margin18.5%

D/E1.17

Current Ratio1.41

Rev Growth20.0%

Profit Growth100.0%

EV/EBITDA8.25

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

449.5M

Charter Capital

4495.4B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Xây dựng và Vật liệu

Industry (ICB L3)

Xây dựng và Vật liệu

Sub-industry

Xây dựng

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for SJG — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Tổng Công ty Đầu Tư Và Kinh Doanh Vốn Nhà Nước

State

99.8%

448.6 trieu

Board & Management

Hồ Văn Dũng

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Văn Tùng

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Trần Văn Tuấn

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Tổng Giám đốc

Vũ Đức Quang

Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Kế toán trưởng

Trần Thị Mỹ Hảo

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Phạm Đức Thành

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Phạm Thị Cao Thanh

Thành viên Ban Kiểm toán nội bộ

Trần Thị Thu Phương

Phó Giám đốc Kiểm toán nội bộ

Nguyễn Văn Thự

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Trần Thế Anh

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Văn Sơn

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Bùi Đình Đông

Trưởng Ban Kiểm toán nội bộ

Đặng Quốc Bảo

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Văn Thắng

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Phạm Văn Quản

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Top connections

MIE99.8%TVN99.8%VGV99.8%VNP99.8%DVN2 links SEA99.8%QTC99.8%VGT99.8%CAG99.8%BMI99.8%VXB99.8%HVN99.8%

Computed 12/04/2026