HD8

Real Estate

Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư Phát triển Nhà và Đô thị HUD8

Bất động sảnCT

7.500

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Overvalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

6.735

Current

7.500

Gap

-10.2%

ModelDCF LEVERAGE SCREEN

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Bất động sản→Real Estate

Classified as real estate because ICB sector "Bất động sản" maps to the real estate group

ModelRNAV + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 40% x (BVPS x 1.5) + 60% x DCF Value

Real estate developers in Vietnam report land banks at historical acquisition cost (Vietnamese Accounting Standards don't allow revaluation). This means book value severely understates true asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (revalued net asset value, applying a 1.5x factor to book value) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.300

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

13.60%

E/(D+E)

65.47%

Kd(1-t)

6.33%

D/(D+E)

34.53%

WACC

11.09%

Growth Estimate

Sector Default3.00%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

40%RNAV Proxy

13.953

60%DCF Value

1.923

Blended Intrinsic

6.735

Value Decomposition

30%

70%

Explicit period (30%)Terminal value (70%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — HD8

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Poor

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.06

Moderate

DSRI

1.065

GMI

1.022

AQI

1.548

SGI

0.939

DEPI

0.627

SGAI

0.894

TATA

0.043

LVGI

0.985

The Beneish M-Score of -2.0587 indicates a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is below the threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality score of 25.8/100, particularly the cash conversion score of 0.0/100, raises concerns about the sustainability of reported earnings.

Red Flags

Earnings Quality Score of 25.8/100 indicates poor earnings quality, especially with cash conversion at 0.0/100, suggesting potential issues with cash flow relative to reported earnings.
The SGI of 0.9393 indicates declining sales growth, which may signal weakening demand or operational challenges.

Positive Signals

The DSRI of 1.0646 suggests that the company is managing its receivables well relative to sales, which could indicate effective credit management.

Ownership Risk

The top shareholder, Tổng Công ty Đầu tư Phát triển Nhà và Đô thị, holds a significant 51.0% stake, indicating potential for concentrated control which may limit minority shareholder influence and raise governance concerns.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor cash flow metrics and consider a deeper analysis of operational performance before making investment decisions. Engaging with management regarding earnings quality and cash conversion could provide additional insights.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

3/9

Weak

Z-Score

1.55

Distress Zone

Sharpe

-0.37

Negative

Composite

Poor

Price Risk

Momentum

-22.1%

Volatility

61.5%

Max Drawdown

-32.2%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

28.32P/E

P/B0.61

P/S68.92

ROE2.2%

ROA1.4%

EPS240.09

BVPS11162.19

Gross Margin20.7%

Net Margin243.3%

D/E0.53

Current Ratio3.30

Rev Growth-6.1%

Profit Growth28.5%

EV/EBITDA-14.62

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

10.0M

Charter Capital

100.0B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Bất động sản

Industry (ICB L3)

Bất động sản

Sub-industry

Bất động sản

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for HD8 — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Tổng Công ty Đầu tư Phát triển Nhà và Đô thị

Inst

51.0%

5.1 trieu

Công ty Cổ phần Tasco

Inst

9.0%

900.000

Tạ Văn Phương

Indiv

4.0%

400.500

Nguyễn Phúc Khánh

Indiv

0.6%

60.000

Tạ Trọng Tấn

Indiv

0.2%

20.000

Ngô Doãn

Indiv

0.2%

20.000

Nguyễn Tiến Dương

Indiv

0.1%

14.000

Võ Thị Nhân

Indiv

0.1%

11.200

Dương Anh Tuấn

Indiv

0.1%

10.000

Board & Management

Tạ Văn Phương4.0%

Kế toán trưởng

Nguyễn Phúc Khánh0.6%

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Dương Anh Tuấn0.1%

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Ngọc Hải

Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Phan Thị Minh Hương

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Lê Minh Phúc

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Giám đốc

Lê Quang Phong

Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Văn Tuấn

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Đức Minh

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Top connections

HD251.0%HLD51.0%HU451.0%HU651.0%TNS10.1%DNC5.6%REE5.5%BMG5.0%DOP2.4%

Computed 12/04/2026