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Real Estate sector

HD2

Real Estate
Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư phát triển nhà HUD2
Bất động sảnCT
10.700
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
53.751
Current
10.700
Gap
+402.3%
ModelDCF LEVERAGE SCREEN

Valuation Breakdown

CTBất động sảnReal Estate
Classified as real estate because ICB sector "Bất động sản" maps to the real estate group
ModelRNAV + DCF Blend
Intrinsic = 40% x (BVPS x 1.5) + 60% x DCF Value

Real estate developers in Vietnam report land banks at historical acquisition cost (Vietnamese Accounting Standards don't allow revaluation). This means book value severely understates true asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (revalued net asset value, applying a 1.5x factor to book value) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
1.300
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
13.60%
Ke
13.60%
x
E/(D+E)
30.38%
+
Kd(1-t)
5.02%
x
D/(D+E)
69.62%
=
WACC
10.00%
+2% WACC penalty (high leverage)
2
Growth Estimate
Sector Default3.00%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
4
Valuation
40%RNAV Proxy
15.603
60%DCF Value
79.182
Blended Intrinsic
53.751
Value Decomposition
33%
67%
Explicit period (33%)Terminal value (67%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — HD2

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2024

53
Fair
Accrual Quality
33
Cash Conversion
100
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2024

260.56
High Risk
DSRI
0.136
GMI
0.069
AQI
652.930
SGI
3.790
DEPI
0.862
SGAI
4.661
TATA
-0.200
LVGI
0.886

The Beneish M-Score of 260.5605 significantly exceeds the manipulation threshold, indicating a high likelihood of earnings manipulation. The earnings quality metrics reveal severe weaknesses, particularly in revenue and margin recognition, which raises concerns about the sustainability of reported earnings.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score of 260.5605 indicates likely manipulation, far exceeding the threshold of -1.78.
  • Earnings Quality Score of 53.4/100, with eq_margin and eq_revenue both at 0.0/100, suggests serious issues in revenue recognition and profitability.
Positive Signals
  • High cash conversion rate (eq_cash_conv of 100.0/100) indicates that cash flows from operations are strong relative to earnings.
Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily concentrated, with the largest shareholder holding 51.0%, which may lead to governance risks and potential conflicts of interest in decision-making.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and consider conducting further due diligence on the company's financial practices and governance before making investment decisions.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
7/9
Strong
Z-Score
1.52
Distress Zone
Sharpe
-0.70
Negative
Composite
52
Fair
Price Risk
Momentum
-23.4%
Volatility
93.9%
Max Drawdown
-48.7%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2024
18.66P/E
P/B1.23
P/S0.89
ROE8.1%
ROA2.5%
EPS975.98
BVPS12482.58
Gross Margin40.7%
Net Margin5.6%
D/E1.82
Current Ratio1.48
Rev Growth279.0%
Profit Growth30436.0%
EV/EBITDA9.34
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
9.0M
Charter Capital
89.6B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Bất động sản
Industry (ICB L3)
Bất động sản
Sub-industry
Bất động sản
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for HD2 — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Tổng Công ty Đầu tư Phát triển Nhà và Đô thị
Inst
51.0%
4.6 trieu
Văn Phụng Hà
Indiv
14.1%
1.3 trieu
Lê Quang Huy
Indiv
5.0%
444.500
america limited liability company
Inst
4.9%
438.600
Nguyễn Thế Ước
Indiv
0.1%
10.000
Board & Management
Nguyễn Chiến Thắng
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Bùi Ngô Việt Cường
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Giám đốc
Vũ Thị Thu Huệ
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Minh Chiến
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Bùi Văn Thành
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Thị Lệ Hằng
Kế toán trưởng
Phạm Thị Thu Mai
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Văn Quang
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Trần Hồng Sơn
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Tống Trường Hải
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Giám đốc
Computed 12/04/2026
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