HD2

Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư phát triển nhà HUD2

VietnamReal EstateBất động sảnUPCOMCT

10.000

VND · Close 26 Oct 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate

Comparison requires review

+55.5%Calibrated value vs last close

Last close (VND): 10.000
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND): 15.554

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

1
Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
2
Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
3
Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.

Also note

The model’s gap was capped before calibration.
A release of working capital contributes to cash flow.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 25 Nov 2026

Model reliability: Low; Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks; High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers: Not assessed; A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.

Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Published filingsValued 30 Oct 2026Anchored to close on 26 Oct 2026Recalculated when the displayed close changes.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Bất động sản→Real Estate

Classified as real estate because ICB sector “Bất động sản” maps to the real estate group.

ModelRNAV + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 40% x RNAV proxy + 60% x DCF Value

Developers often carry land banks at historical cost under VAS, so book value can understate asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (book value with its property share marked up 1.5×) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.

Technical details

Why this model

RE developers carry large land inventories at historical cost; cash flows depend on project delivery timing. RNAV captures hidden land value, while DCF captures earnings power. The leverage screen guards against over-leveraged developers.

How it works

RNAV proxy: the property share of BVPS (investment property, fixed assets and inventories over total assets) × 1.5 plus the rest at book, or 1.25× all of book when that share is 10% or less or unknown, cut by up to 50% as D/E rises above 2. DCF: 5-year projection on median cash flow with CAPM-derived WACC. If D/E > 3 or interest coverage < 1.5, WACC is increased by 2%. Final value = 40% RNAV + 60% DCF.

Best for

Property developers and real estate firms with significant land banks recorded at below-market historical cost.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.36%

Betasector default

0.863

ERP

4.38%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

10.89%

E/(D+E)

39.38%

Kd(1-t)

5.25%

D/(D+E)

60.62%

WACC

10.00%

Growth Estimate

Sector Default3.50%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→10.000

Calibrated value vs last close→+55.5%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)

15.554

What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements

Discount rate (WACC)10.00%high risk: no

Growth rate3.50%growth method: default

Base cash flow76.9 tỷone off strip ratio: 0

DCF Sensitivity

Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.

WACC \ Growth	0.5%	2.0%	3.5%	5.0%	6.5%
8.0%	15.554	15.554	15.554	15.554	15.554
9.0%	15.554	15.554	15.554	15.554	15.554
10.0%	15.554	15.554	15.554	15.554	15.554
11.0%	15.554	15.554	15.554	15.554	15.554
12.0%	15.554	15.554	15.554	15.554	15.554

Above market priceBelow market priceCurrent estimate

HD2 among Real Estate

Every stock in the sector, HD2 marked: calibrated gap vs close across, market value up, model reliability into the board

Each bead is one valued stock in the sector; the amber bead with its stem is HD2. Drag to turn; open another stock from its bead.

Feeds valuation:Cost of capitalGrowthModel inputsFinal calculation

Line item	2026	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	353	300	375	344	187	112	131	154	267	512	232	383	561
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge	·	60	14	6	39	38	13	16	64	139	64	25	24	18
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge	·	0	0	0	0	0	79	71	0.6	11	64	5	0	0
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)	·	60	59	114	132	126	7	37	31	55	192	99	91	101
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)	·	4	8	18	28	30	5	6	1	3	4	8	3	2
Net Inventories	·	233	225	246	165	21	11	5	54	62	191	103	266	441
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)	·	233	225	246	165	21	11	5	54	62	191	103	266	441
Other current assets	·	0.01	2	9	7	1	2	2	5	625,003	0.06	0	1	0.9
Other current assets (Bn. VND)	·	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.7
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	4	15	4	5	11	12	13	15	20	11	9	7	7
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)	·	0	11	0	0	0	0	0	0.5	0.5	0	0	0	0
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)	·	0	11	0	0	0	0	0	0.5	0.5	0	0	0	0
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)	·	4	3	4	5	5	6	7	8	9	9	9	7	7
Tangible fixed assets	·	4	3	4	5	5	6	7	8	9	9	9	7	7
Investment in properties	·	0	0	0	0	6	6	6	6	6	0	0	0	0
Other non-current assets	·	0.2	0.1	0.02	0.07	0.2	0.2	0.00	0.7	5	1	0.3	0.4	0.6
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)	·	0.2	0.1	0.02	0.07	0.2	0.2	0.00	0.7	1	1	0.3	0.4	0.6
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	357	315	379	348	198	124	143	169	287	522	240	390	569
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)	·	235	203	276	242	88	10	21	40	130	378	131	283	462
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)	·	132	203	158	140	78	8	19	40	130	378	131	279	452
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1	·	98	172	116	62	7	0	0	0	0	103	27	41	13
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)	·	0.1	3	8	27	35	0.1	0.2	2	14	62	1	0.7	16
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)	·	104	0	118	102	10	1	1	0.4	0.4	0	0	4	10
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1	·	50	0	118	102	10	0	0	0	0.4	0	0	4	10
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)Discount rate (WACC)	·	122	112	103	106	110	115	123	129	156	144	110	107	106
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)	·	122	112	103	106	110	115	123	129	156	144	110	107	106
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)	·	90	90	90	95	90	90	90	90	90	90	90	90	90
Other Reserves	·	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.8	0.8	0.8	0.8	0.8
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)	·	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	14	14	14	11	5
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)	·	20	10	2	4	9	13	21	28	47	35	0.4	0	0.8
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)	·	357	315	379	348	198	124	143	169	287	522	240	390	569
Short-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)	·	0	0	0	0	0	0	20	20	20	60	0	0	0
Common shares (Bn. VND)	·	90	90	90	90	90	90	90	90	90	90	90	90	90

◆vnvalue Research Note

Full equity analysis · PDF · Updated 30 Oct 2026

Dated original report: includes the model’s unadjusted figures; the website shows calibrated values.

Download

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Good

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

100

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

100

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

Remainder

M −3.42 · 7th pctile vs VN companies

YoY ▼ −0.60

Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement

Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI

0.911

GMI

1.204

AQI

0.012

SGI

1.122

DEPI

1.112

SGAI

0.846

TATA

−0.167

LVGI

0.789

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit: 2.0576th pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets: 1.0%36th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero: None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent: 0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest: Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

6/9

Neutral

Z-Score

1.80

Distress Zone

Sharpe

−0.33

Negative

Composite

50 to 69

Piotroski F-Score Breakdown

✓Net Income > 0

✓Operating CF > 0

✓ROA Rising

✓OCF > Net Income

✗Lower Leverage

✓Better Liquidity

✓No Dilution

✗Margin Up

✗Turnover Up

DuPont Decomposition

Tax Burden0.74×Interest Burden1.02×Op. Margin0.09×Turnover0.49×Leverage2.93=ROE9.9%

Price Risk

Momentum

−35.3%

Volatility

120.6%

Max Drawdown

−66.7%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

7.43P/E

P/B: 0.74
P/S: 0.52
ROE: 10.3%
ROA: 3.6%
EPS: 1.345
BVPS: 13.572
Gross Margin: 33.8%
Net Margin: 6.9%
D/E: 1.21
Current Ratio: 2.68
EV/EBITDA: 6.10
Div Yield: —

Company Overview

Shares outstanding: 9.0M
Charter Capital: 89.6B VND
Sector (ICB L2): Bất động sản
Industry (ICB L3): Bất động sản
Sub-industry: Bất động sản
Company Type: CT

Ownership network

Common ownership links for HD2. Hover for detail, select a link to open it.

Shareholders

Tổng Công ty Đầu tư Phát triển Nhà và Đô thị

Inst

51.0%

4.6M

2026-06-30

Văn Phụng Hà

Indiv

14.1%

1.3M

2025-08-19

Lê Quang Huy

Indiv

5.0%

444,500

2023-07-20

america limited liability company

Inst

4.9%

438,600

2020-09-01

Nguyễn Thế Ước

Indiv

0.1%

10,000

2019-12-31

Board & Management

Bùi Ngô Việt Cường

Member of Management Board/Deputy Director

Vũ Thị Thu Huệ

Head of Supervisors Board

Nguyễn Minh Chiến

Member of Management Board

Top connections

HD851.0%HLD51.0%HU451.0%HU651.0%SGN25.0%WCS24.0%IDV18.0%SZL16.1%BAX16.1%TIP15.3%ILB12.8%PPS9.0%

Computed 30/10/2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Earnings-capitalised value

How it is calculated

Keep in mind

Why it needs review

Also note

Valuation Breakdown

DCF Sensitivity

HD2 among Real Estate

Financial Statements

Earnings Quality

Financial Forensics

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Quantitative Scores

Key Ratios

Company Overview

Ownership network

HD2 among Real Estate

Ownership network