ICG

Construction

Công ty Cổ phần Xây dựng Sông Hồng

Xây dựng và Vật liệuCT

18.400

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Very Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

292.793

Current

18.400

Gap

+500.0%

ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Xây dựng và Vật liệu→Construction

Classified as construction because ICB sector "Xây dựng và Vật liệu" maps to the construction group

ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.100

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

12.20%

E/(D+E)

52.75%

Kd(1-t)

6.26%

D/(D+E)

47.25%

WACC

10.00%

Growth Estimate

Sector Default3.00%

Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

50%EV/EBITDA Value

—

50%DCF Value

292.793

Blended Intrinsic

292.793

Value Decomposition

35%

65%

Explicit period (35%)Terminal value (65%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — ICG

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Weak

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

100

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

5.67

High Risk

DSRI

12.000

GMI

1.291

AQI

0.374

SGI

0.496

DEPI

1.051

SGAI

1.769

TATA

-0.235

LVGI

1.582

The Beneish M-Score of 5.6739 indicates a high likelihood of earnings manipulation, significantly exceeding the threshold of -1.78. Coupled with a low Earnings Quality Score of 31.0/100, particularly concerning metrics like receivables and margin, this stock presents substantial red flags for potential investors.

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score of 5.6739 indicates likely earnings manipulation.
Earnings Quality Score of 31.0/100, with 0.0/100 in receivables and margin metrics, suggests poor earnings quality.
DSRI of 11.9996 indicates significant inventory growth relative to sales, which may signal overstatement of revenue.

Positive Signals

Cash conversion metric of 100.0/100 indicates strong cash flow relative to earnings.
Institutional ownership of 23.3% may provide some level of oversight and governance.

Ownership Risk

The top shareholders include a mix of individuals and institutions, with the largest individual holding at 17.0%. This concentrated ownership may lead to governance risks and potential conflicts of interest.

Recommendation

Given the high risk of earnings manipulation and poor earnings quality, it is advisable to exercise caution and consider avoiding investment in ICG until clearer financial transparency is established.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

4/9

Neutral

Z-Score

0.66

Distress Zone

Sharpe

1.92

Excellent

Composite

Strong

Price Risk

Momentum

+142.9%

Volatility

42.6%

Max Drawdown

-17.9%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

20.53P/E

P/B1.35

P/S61.41

ROE6.8%

ROA2.0%

EPS978.83

BVPS14933.89

Gross Margin38.9%

Net Margin299.1%

D/E2.96

Current Ratio1.46

Rev Growth-50.4%

Profit Growth7205.8%

EV/EBITDA-43.16

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

20.0M

Charter Capital

200.0B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Xây dựng và Vật liệu

Industry (ICB L3)

Xây dựng và Vật liệu

Sub-industry

Xây dựng

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for ICG — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Phạm Hùng

Indiv

17.0%

3.4 trieu

Công Ty TNHH Một Thành Viên Đầu Tư Thanh Long

Inst

16.9%

3.4 trieu

Võ Ngọc Hùng

Indiv

11.3%

2.0 trieu

asean small cap fund

Inst

6.4%

1.3 trieu

Hanshin Engineering & Construction Co., Ltd.

Inst

6.0%

1.2 trieu

Trử Hoài Nam

Indiv

5.0%

999.000

Phạm Đỗ Nhật Hưng

Indiv

5.0%

990.000

asean deep value fund

Inst

5.0%

990.900

Công ty Cổ phần Tập đoàn F.I.T

Inst

4.8%

950.000

Vũ Danh Thắng

Indiv

3.7%

748.729

Phạm Mạnh Thành

Indiv

3.7%

651.400

Ngân hàng Thương mại Cổ phần Đại chúng Việt Nam

Inst

3.4%

681.000

Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư PVR Hà Nội

Inst

2.5%

510.500

nguyen-thanh-tung

Indiv

1.3%

250.526

Trịnh Xuân Thanh

Indiv

1.1%

224.565

Tổng Công ty Cổ phần Xây lắp Dầu khí Việt Nam

Inst

1.1%

216.128

Lê Xuân Thi

Indiv

0.7%

149.727

Phan Chí Trung

Indiv

0.7%

133.203

Đặng Tiên Phong

Indiv

0.6%

113.808

Hoàng Ngọc Sáu

Indiv

0.6%

112.205

Nông Thị Thu Trang

Indiv

0.4%

74.545

Nguyễn Tuấn Anh

Indiv

0.2%

45.054

Nguyễn Minh Quân

Indiv

0.2%

40.000

Board & Management

Phạm Hùng17.0%

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Võ Ngọc Hùng11.3%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập

Trử Hoài Nam5.0%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nông Thị Thu Trang0.4%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Phạm Quỳnh Trang

Tổng Giám đốc

Phạm Tiến Thành

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Lương Thị Ánh Phượng

Kế toán trưởng

Nguyễn Hồng Thái

Phụ trách Công bố thông tin

Lê Duy Mạnh

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Phạm Quang Huy

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Mai Hồng Linh

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Trần Thị Thùy Linh

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Trần Lan Anh

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Top connections

DCL58.1%PSI51.2%PXI51.0%PXT51.0%PXS51.0%PID50.0%PXM48.3%TSC41.1%PVH36.0%CJC25.5%DSE24.9%PSG2 links

Computed 12/04/2026