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Consumer sector

DCL

Consumer
Công ty Cổ phần Dược phẩm Cửu Long
Y tế/Dược phẩmCT
56.600
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Overvalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
2.390
Current
56.600
Gap
-95.8%
ModelFCF DCF

Valuation Breakdown

CTY tếConsumer
Classified as consumer because ICB sector "Y tế" maps to the consumer group
ModelFCF-Based DCF
Value = Sum of [FCF / (1+WACC)^t] + Terminal Value / (1+WACC)^n

A classic Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the actual cash a business generates after all operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted back to today's value using WACC. This is the gold standard of intrinsic valuation: it values the company based on what it can actually deliver to shareholders, independent of market sentiment.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.800
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
10.10%
Ke
10.10%
x
E/(D+E)
62.69%
+
Kd(1-t)
5.76%
x
D/(D+E)
37.31%
=
WACC
10.00%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental firm blend3.23%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
Base FCF54.15B
Projection years10
4
Valuation
Base FCF
54.15B
Growth Rate
3.23%
WACC
10.00%
Terminal Growth
4.00%
DCF Value
2.390
Value Decomposition
43%
57%
Explicit period (43%)Terminal value (57%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — DCL

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

75
Good
Accrual Quality
95
Cash Conversion
100
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
8
Revenue Quality
35

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.79
Low Risk
DSRI
0.888
GMI
1.014
AQI
0.485
SGI
1.011
DEPI
1.234
SGAI
0.995
TATA
-0.011
LVGI
0.982

DCL shows a Beneish M-Score of -2.7933, indicating no immediate signs of earnings manipulation, as it is below the manipulation threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality metrics reveal weaknesses, particularly in revenue recognition and margins, suggesting potential areas of concern.

Red Flags
  • Earnings quality score of 75.3/100 indicates moderate quality, with particularly low revenue (34.8/100) and margin (8.1/100) scores, signaling potential revenue recognition issues.
Positive Signals
  • The Beneish M-Score of -2.7933 is well below the manipulation threshold, suggesting a lower likelihood of earnings manipulation.
  • High accrual (95.4/100) and cash conversion (100.0/100) scores indicate strong cash flow management and operational efficiency.
Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily concentrated, with Công ty Cổ phần Tập đoàn F.I.T holding 58.1%, which may lead to governance risks and potential conflicts of interest due to lack of diverse shareholder influence.

Recommendation

Investors should monitor DCL's revenue recognition practices closely and consider engaging with management regarding their strategies to improve margins. Given the ownership concentration, assessing governance practices is also advisable.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
5/9
Neutral
Z-Score
3.34
Safe Zone
Sharpe
1.78
Excellent
Composite
61
Fair
Price Risk
Momentum
+84.1%
Volatility
42.3%
Max Drawdown
-30.7%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
211.83P/E
P/B2.75
P/S3.13
ROE1.3%
ROA0.8%
EPS267.20
BVPS20559.59
Gross Margin15.5%
Net Margin1.5%
D/E0.60
Current Ratio2.03
Rev Growth1.3%
Profit Growth-63.6%
EV/EBITDA43.71
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
73.0M
Charter Capital
730.4B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Y tế
Industry (ICB L3)
Dược phẩm
Sub-industry
Dược phẩm
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for DCL — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Công ty Cổ phần Tập đoàn F.I.T
Inst
58.1%
42.4 trieu
Quỹ Đầu tư Chứng khoán Y tế Bản Việt
Inst
2.1%
431.340
Red River Holding
Inst
1.9%
379.940
Lê Trung Hiếu
Indiv
1.5%
309.720
asiavantage global limited
Inst
1.4%
284.440
Phạm Trung Nghĩa
Indiv
1.3%
252.000
nguyen-thanh-tong
Indiv
0.5%
107.770
Lương Văn Hóa
Indiv
0.4%
83.912
Nguyễn Văn Cần
Indiv
0.4%
79.324
nguyen-van-an
Indiv
0.3%
70.318
Nguyễn Văn Thanh Hải
Indiv
0.2%
39.000
Đỗ Thị Thu Liên
Indiv
0.2%
31.150
Board & Management
Nguyễn Thị Minh Nguyệt
Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Trịnh Quốc Khánh
Giám đốc Tài chính/Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Phí Xuân Trường
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Võ Xuân Vinh
Phó Tổng Giám đốc Kinh doanh
Trần Huệ Nga
Kế toán trưởng
Nguyễn Thị Hồng Anh
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Đỗ Thế Cao
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
VŨ THỊ MINH HOÀI
Tổng Giám đốc
Phan Thị Hòa
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Văn Sang
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Trọng Đức
Phó Tổng Giám đốc Sản xuất
Nguyễn Ngọc Bích Ly
Người phụ trách quản trị công ty/Phụ trách Công bố thông tin
Nguyễn Ngọc Bích
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Computed 12/04/2026
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