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Cyclicals sector

KVC

Cyclicals
Công ty Cổ phần Sản xuất Xuất nhập khẩu Inox Kim Vĩ
Tài nguyên Cơ bản/Kim loạiCT
1.300
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
Medium
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
3.423
Current
1.300
Gap
+163.3%
ModelEV EBITDA MIDCYCLE

Valuation Breakdown

CTTài nguyên Cơ bảnCyclical
Classified as cyclical because ICB sector "Tài nguyên Cơ bản" maps to the cyclical group
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

1
Model Inputs
Mid-Cycle EBITDA7.64B
Fair EV/EBITDA21.9x
Years of data7
2
Valuation
Mid-Cycle EBITDA
7.64B
x
Fair EV/EBITDA
21.9x
-
Net Debt
-2.36B
=
Equity Value
3.423
Years of data7

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — KVC

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

35
Weak
Accrual Quality
52
Cash Conversion
40
Receivables
0
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
73

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2022

-5.10
Low Risk
DSRI
0.816
GMI
-3.314
AQI
0.379
SGI
1.205
DEPI
1.022
SGAI
0.821
TATA
-0.027
LVGI
1.044

KVC exhibits several concerning financial metrics indicating potential manipulation, particularly with a Beneish M-Score of -5.1009, well below the manipulation threshold. While the earnings quality score of 58.5 suggests some strengths, the low cash conversion and revenue metrics raise significant red flags.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score of -5.1009 indicates a high likelihood of earnings manipulation.
  • Earnings quality metrics show a cash conversion score of only 30.0/100, suggesting poor cash flow relative to earnings.
  • Revenue quality score of 0.0/100 indicates a complete lack of revenue recognition quality.
Positive Signals
  • DSRI of 0.8163 indicates a decrease in receivables relative to sales, which could suggest improved efficiency.
  • High receivables quality score of 100.0/100 indicates strong management of receivables.
Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is fragmented with no single shareholder holding a controlling stake, which may lead to governance challenges and potential conflicts of interest among shareholders.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and conduct further due diligence, particularly focusing on cash flow and revenue recognition practices before considering any investment in KVC.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
5/9
Neutral
Z-Score
1.90
Grey Zone
Sharpe
-0.59
Negative
Composite
37
Weak
Price Risk
Momentum
-31.8%
Volatility
68.8%
Max Drawdown
-40.9%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
-2.43P/E
P/B0.16
P/S0.61
ROE-6.4%
ROA-5.5%
EPS-575.57
BVPS8769.17
Gross Margin-9.5%
Net Margin-25.1%
D/E0.09
Current Ratio9.29
Rev Growth-27.1%
Profit Growth-2648.2%
EV/EBITDA-5.26
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
49.5M
Charter Capital
495.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Tài nguyên Cơ bản
Industry (ICB L3)
Kim loại
Sub-industry
Thép và sản phẩm thép
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for KVC — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Trần Thị Ánh Nguyệt
Indiv
5.7%
943.300
Nguyễn Đăng Quang
Indiv
4.6%
2.3 trieu
Nguyễn Tuấn Anh
Indiv
4.4%
2.2 trieu
Huỳnh Văn Bé Tư
Indiv
4.0%
663.600
Nguyễn Yến Phi
Indiv
3.6%
592.300
Đỗ Hùng
Indiv
2.2%
1.1 trieu
Đỗ Hòa
Indiv
0.8%
400.000
Đỗ Thị Thu Trang
Indiv
0.4%
200.000
Trần Thị Quỳnh Anh
Indiv
0.1%
69.400
Board & Management
Đỗ Hùng2.2%
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Đỗ Hòa0.8%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Tổng Giám đốc
Đỗ Thị Thu Trang0.4%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Trần Trung Nghĩa
Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Kế toán trưởng
Lưu Xuân
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Đài Trang
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Tăng Minh Đức
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Phan Thanh Tấn
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Lê Trần Vũ Đạt
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a methodology engine — not an advisor. Every number is the deterministic output of a published formula applied to public financial data. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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