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Construction sector

TR1

Construction
Công ty Cổ phần Vận Tải 1 Traco
Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp/Vận tảiCT
18.500
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
38.295
Current
18.500
Gap
+107.0%
ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CTHàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệpConstruction
Classified as construction because ICB sector "Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp" maps to the construction group
ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend
Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
1.100
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
12.20%
Ke
12.20%
x
E/(D+E)
56.80%
+
Kd(1-t)
6.27%
x
D/(D+E)
43.20%
=
WACC
10.00%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental firm blend3.47%
Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
4
Valuation
50%EV/EBITDA Value
24.078
50%DCF Value
52.511
Blended Intrinsic
38.295
Value Decomposition
35%
65%
Explicit period (35%)Terminal value (65%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — TR1

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2024

81
Good
Accrual Quality
96
Cash Conversion
94
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
92
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2024

-2.11
Moderate
DSRI
1.099
GMI
1.207
AQI
0.807
SGI
1.329
DEPI
0.997
SGAI
0.796
TATA
-0.009
LVGI
1.126

The Beneish M-Score of -2.1124 indicates that TR1 is not likely to be engaged in earnings manipulation, as it is below the threshold of -1.78. However, the SGI of 1.3294 and LVGI of 1.1265 suggest potential growth pressures that could impact future performance.

Red Flags
  • SGI of 1.3294 indicates sales growth significantly outpacing industry averages, which may not be sustainable.
  • The revenue quality score of 0.0/100 raises concerns about the reliability of reported revenues.
Positive Signals
  • Earnings Quality Score of 81.3/100 indicates strong overall earnings quality, particularly in accruals (96.4/100) and cash conversion (93.5/100).
  • The low DEPI of 0.9970 suggests that depreciation policies are consistent with revenue generation.
Ownership Risk

The concentrated ownership structure, with the top four shareholders holding over 60% of shares, increases the risk of governance issues and potential conflicts of interest.

Recommendation

Investors should monitor sales growth closely due to the elevated SGI and consider the implications of revenue quality on future earnings. A deeper analysis of the ownership dynamics is recommended to assess governance risks.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
6/9
Neutral
Z-Score
3.53
Safe Zone
Sharpe
0.14
Positive
Composite
75
Strong
Price Risk
Momentum
+8.3%
Volatility
110.9%
Max Drawdown
-29.7%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2024
6.50P/E
P/B0.70
P/S0.16
ROE12.8%
ROA7.2%
EPS3065.33
BVPS24500.08
Gross Margin10.9%
Net Margin2.8%
D/E0.85
Current Ratio1.45
Rev Growth32.9%
Profit Growth23.3%
EV/EBITDA3.41
Div Yield10.5%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
4.6M
Charter Capital
45.9B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
Industry (ICB L3)
Vận tải
Sub-industry
Kho bãi, hậu cần và bảo dưỡng
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for TR1 — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Đỗ Thị Bích Thủy
Indiv
20.3%
932.484
Đỗ Minh Tuấn
Indiv
16.2%
742.076
Ngô Hoàng Anh
Indiv
8.9%
407.689
Đỗ Thị Thu Trang
Indiv
8.3%
382.667
Đỗ Thị Thuỳ Dương
Indiv
5.6%
257.034
Đỗ Thị Mỹ Linh
Indiv
3.8%
172.183
Vũ Thị Kiều Loan
Indiv
1.1%
52.101
Lương Quang Khoản
Indiv
1.0%
44.636
Trần Đức Thành
Indiv
0.7%
32.903
Nguyễn Thị Nga
Indiv
0.7%
31.475
Nguyễn Thị Quảng
Indiv
0.4%
17.997
Bùi Thị Quảng
Indiv
0.4%
17.997
Nguyễn Thị Thanh Huyền
Indiv
0.4%
16.770
Nguyễn Thị Giang
Indiv
0.4%
16.670
nguyen-quoc-van
Indiv
0.3%
14.443
Lương Đăng Khoa
Indiv
0.3%
12.527
Lê Văn Minh
Indiv
0.2%
8.751
Nguyễn Viết Thưởng
Indiv
0.1%
6.354
Hoàng Đức Chính
Indiv
0.1%
5.718
Board & Management
Đỗ Thị Bích Thủy20.3%
Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Đỗ Minh Tuấn16.2%
Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Đỗ Thị Thu Trang8.3%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Đỗ Thị Thuỳ Dương5.6%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Vũ Thị Kiều Loan1.1%
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Trần Đức Thành0.7%
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Thị Nga0.7%
Kế toán trưởng
Nguyễn Thị Giang0.4%
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Quốc Văn0.3%
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Lương Đăng Khoa0.3%
Phó Phòng
Lương Quang Khoản
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a methodology engine — not an advisor. Every number is the deterministic output of a published formula applied to public financial data. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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