HCD
CyclicalsValuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Valuation Track Record
Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — HCD
Earnings Quality
Fiscal year 2025
Financial Forensics
Beneish M-Score · 2025
HCD exhibits several concerning indicators of potential earnings manipulation, particularly with a Beneish M-Score of -0.9684, which is above the manipulation threshold. The earnings quality score of 23.4/100, coupled with poor cash conversion metrics, raises significant red flags regarding the sustainability of reported earnings.
- Beneish M-Score of -0.9684 indicates potential earnings manipulation, as it is above the threshold of -1.78.
- Earnings Quality Score of 23.4/100 suggests poor earnings quality, particularly with cash conversion metrics at 0.0/100.
- DSRI of 1.8719 indicates potential issues with inventory management, suggesting overstatement of revenues.
- SGI of 0.9091 indicates a decrease in sales growth, which may reflect a more realistic revenue outlook.
- DEPI of 0.9320 suggests that depreciation is in line with asset usage, indicating no immediate red flags in asset valuation.
The concentrated ownership structure, with the top shareholder holding 20.5%, poses a risk of potential conflicts of interest and lack of accountability in governance.
Investors should exercise caution and conduct further due diligence, particularly focusing on cash flow statements and revenue recognition practices before considering any investment in HCD.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
Company Overview
// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK
> mapping common ownership for HCD — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate