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Cyclicals sector

LMC

Cyclicals
Công ty Cổ phần Long Beach LMC
Tài nguyên Cơ bản/Khai khoángCT
5.700
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
20.875
Current
5.700
Gap
+266.2%
ModelEV EBITDA MIDCYCLE

Valuation Breakdown

CTTài nguyên Cơ bảnCyclical
Classified as cyclical because ICB sector "Tài nguyên Cơ bản" maps to the cyclical group
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

1
Model Inputs
Mid-Cycle EBITDA3.23B
Fair EV/EBITDA5.0x
Years of data7
2
Valuation
Mid-Cycle EBITDA
3.23B
x
Fair EV/EBITDA
5.0x
-
Net Debt
-15.18B
=
Equity Value
20.875
Years of data7

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — LMC

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2024

58
Fair
Accrual Quality
72
Cash Conversion
23
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
97
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2022

24.83
High Risk
DSRI
30.749
GMI
0.618
AQI
12.098
SGI
0.238
DEPI
0.000
SGAI
5.309
TATA
-0.574
LVGI
1.371

LMC exhibits significant red flags indicating potential earnings manipulation, as evidenced by a Beneish M-Score of 24.8282, well above the manipulation threshold of -1.78. The company's earnings quality score of 32.3/100 further highlights concerns regarding the reliability of reported earnings.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score of 24.8282 indicates a high likelihood of earnings manipulation.
  • DSRI of 30.7495 suggests aggressive revenue recognition practices.
  • Earnings Quality Score of 32.3/100 reflects poor accruals and revenue recognition metrics.
Positive Signals
  • Cash conversion rate of 100.0/100 indicates strong cash flow management despite low earnings quality.
Ownership Risk

The ownership structure shows a concentration of shares among individual shareholders, which may lead to governance risks and potential conflicts of interest, especially in a market with prevalent state-owned enterprises (SOEs).

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and conduct further due diligence on LMC, particularly focusing on cash flow sustainability and governance practices before considering any investment.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
6/9
Neutral
Z-Score
8.03
Safe Zone
Sharpe
-0.80
Negative
Composite
49
Weak
Price Risk
Momentum
-64.4%
Volatility
114.8%
Max Drawdown
-84.2%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2024
3.46P/E
P/B0.36
P/S0.70
ROE10.8%
ROA9.5%
EPS1850.49
BVPS18024.09
Gross Margin36.9%
Net Margin20.1%
D/E0.06
Current Ratio17.57
Rev Growth13.0%
Profit Growth72.6%
EV/EBITDA-1.73
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
1.5M
Charter Capital
15.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Tài nguyên Cơ bản
Industry (ICB L3)
Khai khoáng
Sub-industry
Khai khoáng
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for LMC — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Nguyễn Thị Minh Phượng
Indiv
7.3%
109.500
Phan Thị Tố Duyên
Indiv
7.3%
109.500
Kim Văn Hùng
Indiv
4.9%
74.000
Board & Management
Vũ Thị Dung
Phó Giám đốc
Nguyễn Quyết Tâm
Giám đốc
Lê Đức Thắng
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Đỗ Thị Hiền
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Thị Ngọc Hà
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Vũ Mai Anh
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Trần Đình Kiên
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Lê Thu Hà
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
NGUYỄN TIẾN ĐẠT
Kế toán trưởng
Nguyễn Đức Giang
Phó Giám đốc/Phụ trách Công bố thông tin
Nguyễn Khánh
Người phụ trách quản trị công ty
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a methodology engine — not an advisor. Every number is the deterministic output of a published formula applied to public financial data. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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