CAG

Construction

Công ty Cổ phần Cảng An Giang

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp/Vận tảiCT

7.000

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Fairly Valued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

6.999

Current

7.000

Gap

-0.0%

ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp→Construction

Classified as construction because ICB sector "Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp" maps to the construction group

ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.100

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

12.20%

E/(D+E)

96.69%

Kd(1-t)

6.47%

D/(D+E)

3.31%

WACC

12.01%

Growth Estimate

Sector Default3.00%

Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

50%EV/EBITDA Value

12.238

50%DCF Value

1.760

Blended Intrinsic

6.999

Value Decomposition

42%

58%

Explicit period (42%)Terminal value (58%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — CAG

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Fair

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

100

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.73

Low Risk

DSRI

0.935

GMI

0.301

AQI

0.943

SGI

1.218

DEPI

0.934

SGAI

0.695

TATA

-0.015

LVGI

0.898

CAG exhibits a Beneish M-Score of -2.7283, indicating a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is well below the threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality metrics reveal significant weaknesses, particularly in revenue and margin recognition, which could pose risks in financial reporting.

Red Flags

Earnings Quality Score of 68.5/100 indicates potential issues, particularly with eq_margin and eq_revenue both at 0.0/100, suggesting aggressive revenue recognition practices.
SGI at 1.2177 indicates above-average sales growth which may not be sustainable, raising concerns about the quality of reported earnings.

Positive Signals

Beneish M-Score of -2.7283 suggests a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, indicating a potential for more reliable financial reporting.
High eq_accrual of 94.1/100 and eq_cash_conv of 100.0/100 suggest strong cash conversion and accrual quality, which are positive indicators for operational efficiency.

Ownership Risk

The majority state ownership at 53.0% may lead to potential conflicts of interest and influence over financial decisions, which could affect minority shareholders. However, the presence of individual and institutional investors may provide some level of oversight.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor CAG's revenue recognition practices and overall earnings quality, particularly given the elevated SGI. It may be prudent to adopt a cautious approach until clearer trends in financial performance and governance emerge.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

7/9

Strong

Z-Score

13.29

Safe Zone

Sharpe

-0.16

Negative

Composite

Fair

Price Risk

Momentum

-2.7%

Volatility

63.7%

Max Drawdown

-31.8%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

124.68P/E

P/B0.67

P/S2.07

ROE0.5%

ROA0.5%

EPS56.15

BVPS10434.55

Gross Margin14.8%

Net Margin1.7%

D/E0.03

Current Ratio32.78

Rev Growth21.8%

Profit Growth217.1%

EV/EBITDA14.45

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

13.8M

Charter Capital

138.0B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp

Industry (ICB L3)

Vận tải

Sub-industry

Kho bãi, hậu cần và bảo dưỡng

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for CAG — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Tổng Công ty Đầu Tư Và Kinh Doanh Vốn Nhà Nước

State

53.0%

7.3 trieu

Nguyễn Văn Lĩnh

Indiv

18.3%

2.5 trieu

Công ty Cổ Phần Vận Tải Thủy Tân Cảng

Inst

5.8%

800.000

Cao Lương Tri

Indiv

5.1%

700.000

Vũ Đức Hạnh

Indiv

4.3%

520.000

Lê Văn Phúc

Indiv

3.8%

529.000

Nguyễn Thị Minh Phượng

Indiv

0.1%

17.000

Phan Thành Tiến

Indiv

0.1%

15.000

Board & Management

Phan Thành Tiến0.1%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Bùi Thành Hiệp

Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị/Tổng Giám đốc

Trần Văn Cam

Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Văn Cơ

Kế toán trưởng

Trần Tấn Phong

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Trần Thị Thúy Hạnh

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Phạm Văn Thành

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Trần Thị Thu Trà

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Lê Việt Thành

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Quốc Bảo

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Top connections

SJG99.8%MIE99.6%TVN93.9%VGV87.3%VNP65.8%DVN2 links SEA63.4%QTC53.8%VGT53.5%BMI53.0%VXB53.0%HVN53.0%

Computed 12/04/2026