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Cyclicals sector

L63

Cyclicals
Công ty Cổ phần Lilama 69-3
Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp/Công nghiệp nặngCT
8.500
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
19.336
Current
8.500
Gap
+127.5%
ModelEV EBITDA MIDCYCLE

Valuation Breakdown

CTHàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệpCyclical
Classified as cyclical because ICB sector "Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp" maps to the cyclical group
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

1
Model Inputs
Mid-Cycle EBITDA49.10B
Fair EV/EBITDA7.2x
Years of data7
2
Valuation
Mid-Cycle EBITDA
49.10B
x
Fair EV/EBITDA
7.2x
-
Net Debt
192.82B
=
Equity Value
19.336
Years of data7

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — L63

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2024

61
Fair
Accrual Quality
36
Cash Conversion
100
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2024

-1.97
Moderate
DSRI
1.167
GMI
0.669
AQI
4.702
SGI
0.936
DEPI
1.108
SGAI
1.172
TATA
-0.189
LVGI
1.006

L63 exhibits several concerning indicators of potential earnings manipulation, as evidenced by a Beneish M-Score of -1.967, which is below the threshold of -1.78. While the earnings quality score of 60.9 suggests moderate reliability, the low accrual and revenue metrics raise significant red flags regarding the sustainability of reported earnings.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score of -1.967 indicates potential earnings manipulation, as it is below the critical threshold of -1.78.
  • Earnings quality metrics show an accrual score of only 36.3/100, suggesting high reliance on non-cash earnings.
  • Revenue quality score of 0.0/100 indicates potential issues with revenue recognition practices.
Positive Signals
  • Cash conversion score of 100.0/100 indicates strong cash flow generation relative to earnings.
  • Ownership by a significant institutional investor (36.0%) may provide some level of oversight and stability.
Ownership Risk

The ownership structure shows a high concentration with the largest shareholder being a state-owned enterprise, which may influence corporate governance positively but also raises concerns about transparency and accountability.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and conduct further due diligence, particularly focusing on cash flow sustainability and revenue recognition practices before making investment decisions in L63.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
6/9
Neutral
Z-Score
1.13
Distress Zone
Sharpe
0.53
Positive
Composite
75
Strong
Price Risk
Momentum
+53.8%
Volatility
100.4%
Max Drawdown
-25.9%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2024
3.19P/E
P/B0.80
P/S0.12
ROE28.5%
ROA3.9%
EPS2509.06
BVPS10007.60
Gross Margin11.6%
Net Margin3.7%
D/E6.39
Current Ratio1.01
Rev Growth-6.4%
Profit Growth440.7%
EV/EBITDA4.30
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
8.3M
Charter Capital
82.8B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
Industry (ICB L3)
Công nghiệp nặng
Sub-industry
Máy công nghiệp
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for L63 — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Tổng Công ty lắp máy Việt Nam
Inst
36.0%
3.0 trieu
Cao Viết Cường
Indiv
14.4%
1.2 trieu
Nguyễn Mạnh Cường
Indiv
3.9%
324.446
Nguyễn Quốc Khánh
Indiv
3.9%
321.796
Đỗ Trọng Toàn
Indiv
3.5%
293.000
Vũ Văn Hậu
Indiv
1.8%
139.721
Công ty Cổ phần Chứng khoán Bảo Việt
Inst
1.5%
123.850
Phạm Văn Tâm
Indiv
1.4%
113.408
Đỗ Xuân Trường
Indiv
1.2%
98.577
Cao Thị Dự
Indiv
0.9%
73.604
Nguyễn Thị Thành
Indiv
0.6%
47.457
Nguyễn Mạnh Hùng
Indiv
0.5%
38.466
Lê Biên
Indiv
0.4%
34.086
Đào Viết Khuây
Indiv
0.4%
34.861
Phạm Xuân Đảng
Indiv
0.4%
29.133
Vũ Văn Hùng
Indiv
0.3%
20.320
Vũ Văn Cương
Indiv
0.2%
17.399
Đỗ Văn Vượng
Indiv
0.1%
11.755
Phạm Xuân Định
Indiv
0.1%
10.200
Board & Management
Cao Viết Cường14.4%
Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Quốc Khánh3.9%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Đỗ Trọng Toàn3.5%
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Phạm Văn Tâm1.4%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Cao Thị Dự0.9%
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Thị Thanh0.6%
Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Thành viên Ban Kiểm toán nội bộ
Nguyễn Mạnh Hùng0.5%
Thư ký Hội đồng Quản Trị
Lê Biên0.4%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Phạm Xuân Đảng0.4%
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Đỗ Văn Vượng0.1%
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Phạm Xuân Định0.1%
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Văn Công
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Kế toán trưởng
Nguyễn Thị Nga
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Lưu Sỹ Học
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a methodology engine — not an advisor. Every number is the deterministic output of a published formula applied to public financial data. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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