Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 5.700
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 7.424
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
- The model uses profit in place of cash flow, which was not available.
Also note
- A release of working capital contributes to cash flow.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 3 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Developers often carry land banks at historical cost under VAS, so book value can understate asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (book value with its property share marked up 1.5×) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.
Technical details
RE developers carry large land inventories at historical cost; cash flows depend on project delivery timing. RNAV captures hidden land value, while DCF captures earnings power. The leverage screen guards against over-leveraged developers.
RNAV proxy: the property share of BVPS (investment property, fixed assets and inventories over total assets) × 1.5 plus the rest at book, or 1.25× all of book when that share is 10% or less or unknown, cut by up to 50% as D/E rises above 2. DCF: 5-year projection on median cash flow with CAPM-derived WACC. If D/E > 3 or interest coverage < 1.5, WACC is increased by 2%. Final value = 40% RNAV + 60% DCF.
Property developers and real estate firms with significant land banks recorded at below-market historical cost.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
DCF Sensitivity
Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 2.3980th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 1.1%37th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company's Beneish M-Score is -0.5986 (90th percentile versus Vietnamese peers), indicating accounting metrics that are more aggressive than most domestic peers; key M-Score drivers include a very high SGI (9.2671) and LVGI (5.7628) while TATA is -0.7936. Earnings-quality reads high at 82.4/100 driven by perfect scores on accruals, cash conversion and receivables quality, but margin quality is 0/100. The Altman Z-Score is 8.56 (in the safe zone) and the Piotroski F-Score is 6/9 (neutral).
- Beneish M-Score = -0.5986 (90th percentile vs Vietnam): the overall score is above most Vietnamese peers (higher percentiles imply more aggressive accounting metrics in the local sample).
- SGI (Sales Growth Index) = 9.2671: measures revenue growth relative to the prior year; a very large value signals unusually rapid top-line growth compared with the prior period.
- LVGI (Leverage Index) = 5.7628: measures change in leverage; a high value indicates a marked increase in leverage (debt or liabilities) year over year.
- GMI (Gross Margin Index) = 2.1964: measures deterioration in gross margins; >1 means gross margin worsened year over year and GMI is substantially >1 here.
- Margin quality = 0.0/100: the earnings-quality component for margins is the weakest possible, indicating margins are a primary area of concern despite other accrual/cash signals.
- TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = -0.7936: a strongly negative accruals ratio that feeds the Beneish score — while negative TATA can reflect cash-heavy earnings, it is also atypical and should be examined in context.
- Earnings-Quality Score = 82.4/100 with Accruals quality = 100/100 and Cash conversion = 100/100: the company shows high reported earnings quality on accrual and cash-flow measures.
- Receivables quality = 100/100 and Receivables outside the trade cycle = 1.1% of total assets (37th percentile): receivables and non-trade receivables are small in absolute and relative terms.
- Altman Z-Score = 8.56 (safe zone): the distance-to-distress indicator places the company well within the non-distress zone.
- Piotroski F-Score = 6/9: fundamentals are neutral-to-favourable on profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operating efficiency checks.
Ownership is concentrated among individuals: top five shareholders are all individuals holding 12.3%, 11.5%, 11.0%, 7.3% and 6.5% respectively, which implies control is materially held by a small group of insiders. Director-deal registrations in the past year show net registered selling of -15.40% of shares outstanding (3 sale registrations for 609,000 shares and 1 purchase registration for 147,000 shares) — these are registered intentions with the exchange, not confirmed executed trades.
- Compare the year-over-year composition of revenue and the note on revenue recognition in the FY2025 annual report to understand drivers of the SGI = 9.2671.
- Reconcile changes in total liabilities and the debt schedule to verify the components behind LVGI = 5.7628 and the leverage movement.
- Inspect the statement of cash flows and the notes to identify the items producing TATA = -0.7936 and confirm whether large non-cash timing items or one-offs drove accruals.
- Compare gross-margin detail and cost breakdown in the management discussion and the cost of goods sold note to explain GMI = 2.1964 and the margin-quality score of 0/100.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.45
- P/S
- 1.23
- ROE
- 7.8%
- ROA
- 7.4%
- EPS
- 923
- BVPS
- 12.278
- Gross Margin
- 44.0%
- Net Margin
- 21.0%
- D/E
- 0.00
- Current Ratio
- 4.71
- EV/EBITDA
- 2.54
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 3.0M
- Charter Capital
- 30.0B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Bất động sản
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Bất động sản
- Sub-industry
- Tư Vấn, Định giá, Môi giới Bất động sản
- Company Type
- CT