MND

Consumer

Công ty Cổ phần Môi trường Nam Định

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp/Tư vấn & Hỗ trợ Kinh doanhCT

9.500

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Overvalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

7.489

Current

9.500

Gap

-21.2%

ModelFCF DCF

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp→Consumer

Classified as consumer because ICB sector "Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp" maps to the consumer group

ModelFCF-Based DCF

Value = Sum of [FCF / (1+WACC)^t] + Terminal Value / (1+WACC)^n

A classic Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the actual cash a business generates after all operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted back to today's value using WACC. This is the gold standard of intrinsic valuation: it values the company based on what it can actually deliver to shareholders, independent of market sentiment.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.000

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

11.50%

E/(D+E)

58.68%

Kd(1-t)

6.15%

D/(D+E)

41.32%

WACC

10.00%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend4.47%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Base FCF→849.63M

Projection years→10

Valuation

Base FCF

849.63M

Growth Rate

4.47%

WACC

10.00%

Terminal Growth

4.00%

DCF Value

7.489

Value Decomposition

43%

57%

Explicit period (43%)Terminal value (57%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — MND

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2024

Good

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

100

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

100

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2020

-2.76

Low Risk

DSRI

1.053

GMI

0.885

AQI

0.852

SGI

1.087

DEPI

1.057

SGAI

1.139

TATA

-0.033

LVGI

1.336

MND exhibits a Beneish M-Score of -2.7583, indicating a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is below the threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality metrics reveal significant weaknesses, particularly in receivables and margins, which may pose risks to financial stability.

Red Flags

The receivables quality score is notably low at 16.9/100, suggesting potential issues in revenue recognition and collection efficiency.
The SGI of 1.0870 indicates a growth rate that exceeds revenue growth, which may raise concerns about sustainability and operational efficiency.

Positive Signals

The earnings quality score of 72.5/100, particularly strong cash conversion at 100.0/100, suggests that the company is effectively converting earnings into cash.
The low GMI of 0.8847 indicates a lower likelihood of gross margin deterioration, which is a positive sign for profitability.

Ownership Risk

With 51.0% ownership by the state (Ủy Ban Nhân Dân Tỉnh Nam Định), there is a significant influence from governmental interests that may affect operational decisions and strategic direction. However, the presence of individual shareholders also suggests a degree of diversification in ownership.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor the company's receivables and margin performance, as these are critical areas of concern. It may be prudent to maintain a cautious stance until improvements in earnings quality are observed.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

6/9

Neutral

Z-Score

3.46

Safe Zone

Sharpe

-0.07

Negative

Composite

Fair

Price Risk

Momentum

+0.0%

Volatility

35.5%

Max Drawdown

-13.6%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2024

12.75P/E

P/B0.95

P/S0.29

ROE11.5%

ROA6.7%

EPS1328.62

BVPS11590.23

Gross Margin18.7%

Net Margin3.5%

D/E0.65

Current Ratio1.76

Rev Growth4.8%

Profit Growth24.0%

EV/EBITDA3.70

Div Yield6.8%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

2.2M

Charter Capital

21.9B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp

Industry (ICB L3)

Tư vấn & Hỗ trợ Kinh doanh

Sub-industry

Chất thải & Môi trường

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for MND — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Ủy Ban Nhân Dân Tỉnh Nam Định

State

51.0%

1.1 trieu

Vũ Đình Ngọc

Indiv

16.8%

367.879

Vũ Văn Pha

Indiv

13.2%

290.050

Triệu Đức Kiểm

Indiv

0.5%

12.000

Triệu Thị Mơ

Indiv

0.4%

9.859

trương công định

Indiv

0.4%

9.700

Nguyễn Thị Minh Nguyệt

Indiv

0.4%

9.600

Nguyễn Thị Hiền

Indiv

0.4%

8.200

Phạm Hữu Thuận

Indiv

0.3%

7.119

Triệu Thị Oanh

Indiv

0.3%

6.400

Hoàng Hữu Phúc

Indiv

0.3%

6.300

Vũ Thu Hường

Indiv

0.3%

6.218

Trịnh Đức Thắng

Indiv

0.3%

6.100

Vũ Thị Phương Thúy

Indiv

0.1%

3.200

Board & Management

Vũ Đình Ngọc16.8%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Triệu Đức Kiểm0.5%

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Triệu Thị Mơ0.4%

Phó Giám đốc

Trương Công Định0.4%

Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Thị Minh Nguyệt0.4%

Người phụ trách quản trị công ty

Nguyễn Thị Hiền0.4%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Phạm Hữu Thuận0.3%

Phó Giám đốc

Hoàng Hữu Phúc0.3%

Phó Giám đốc

Vũ Thu Hường0.3%

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Vũ Thị Phương Thúy0.1%

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Trần Trọng Thành

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát/Kế toán trưởng

Top connections

UMC51.0%NDW51.0%CDO4.8%TNA4.5%SVN3.3%

Computed 12/04/2026