MSR
CyclicalsValuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Valuation Track Record
Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — MSR
Earnings Quality
Fiscal year 2025
Financial Forensics
Beneish M-Score · 2025
The Beneish M-Score of -1.6378 indicates a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is below the threshold of -1.78. However, concerning earnings quality metrics, particularly the low scores in receivables and revenue, suggest potential issues in revenue recognition and cash flow management.
- DSRI of 2.7690 indicates significant growth in receivables relative to sales, which could signal aggressive revenue recognition practices.
- Earnings Quality Score of 55.8/100, with particularly low scores in eq_receivables (0.0/100) and eq_revenue (5.6/100), raises concerns about the sustainability of earnings.
- High eq_cash_conv score of 100.0/100 suggests strong cash conversion relative to earnings, indicating that cash flows are being generated effectively.
- Beneish GMI of 0.3370 indicates that gross margins are stable, which is a positive sign in terms of operational efficiency.
The high concentration of ownership by institutional investors, particularly the Masan Group, poses a risk of potential conflicts of interest and lack of minority shareholder influence.
Investors should closely monitor the company's revenue recognition practices and consider conducting further due diligence on cash flow sustainability before making investment decisions.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
Company Overview
// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK
> mapping common ownership for MSR — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate