DCF

Construction

Công ty Cổ phần Xây dựng và Thiết kế số 1

Xây dựng và Vật liệuCT

39.000

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Overvalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

3.198

Current

39.000

Gap

-91.8%

ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Xây dựng và Vật liệu→Construction

Classified as construction because ICB sector "Xây dựng và Vật liệu" maps to the construction group

ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.100

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

12.20%

E/(D+E)

46.55%

Kd(1-t)

5.60%

D/(D+E)

53.45%

WACC

10.00%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend6.03%

Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

50%EV/EBITDA Value

1.149

50%DCF Value

5.248

Blended Intrinsic

3.198

Value Decomposition

34%

66%

Explicit period (34%)Terminal value (66%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — DCF

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Weak

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-1.00

High Risk

DSRI

1.298

GMI

1.028

AQI

0.637

SGI

1.485

DEPI

1.028

SGAI

0.792

TATA

0.195

LVGI

1.148

The Beneish M-Score of -1.0027 indicates that DCF is not likely engaged in earnings manipulation, as it is above the threshold of -1.78. However, concerning earnings quality metrics, particularly the low accrual score of 34.7/100 and zero cash conversion, raise significant concerns about the sustainability of reported earnings.

Red Flags

Earnings Quality Score of 43.3/100 indicates below-average earnings quality, with an eq_cash_conv of 0.0/100 suggesting severe cash flow issues.
The SGI of 1.4850 indicates aggressive growth, which may not be supported by underlying fundamentals, raising concerns about the sustainability of revenue growth.

Positive Signals

The eq_receivables score of 100.0/100 suggests strong management of receivables, indicating effective collection practices.
The low SGAI of 0.7925 indicates efficient management of selling, general, and administrative expenses relative to sales.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure shows a concentration of institutional investors, with the top two institutions holding 27.3% of shares, which may lead to potential governance risks if their interests diverge from minority shareholders.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor DCF's cash flow generation and earnings quality metrics. It may be prudent to adopt a cautious approach, considering potential risks associated with aggressive growth and low cash conversion.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

4/9

Neutral

Z-Score

2.77

Grey Zone

Sharpe

-0.24

Negative

Composite

Poor

Price Risk

Momentum

-17.5%

Volatility

97.8%

Max Drawdown

-40.3%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

27.36P/E

P/B3.18

P/S1.05

ROE13.3%

ROA5.5%

EPS1425.31

BVPS12283.36

Gross Margin8.0%

Net Margin3.8%

D/E1.59

Current Ratio1.21

Rev Growth48.5%

Profit Growth91.8%

EV/EBITDA24.04

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

53.0M

Charter Capital

530.0B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Xây dựng và Vật liệu

Industry (ICB L3)

Xây dựng và Vật liệu

Sub-industry

Xây dựng

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for DCF — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Công ty TNHH Sản Xuất - Thương Mại Và Dịch Vụ Thái Hưng Long

Inst

16.2%

8.6 trieu

Công ty TNHH Sản Xuất - Xuất Nhập Khẩu - Thương Mại Dịch Vụ Tổng Hợp Hoàng Vũ

Inst

11.1%

5.9 trieu

Phạm Hùng Cường

Indiv

8.5%

4.5 trieu

Nguyễn Châu Thanh Thanh

Indiv

5.0%

243.700

Nguyễn Minh Tâm

Indiv

4.8%

2.5 trieu

Nguyễn Thị Thùy Linh

Indiv

4.6%

1.4 trieu

Trần Thị Bình An

Indiv

4.6%

2.0 trieu

Đặng Hồng Minh

Indiv

3.9%

2.1 trieu

Chu Quang Huân

Indiv

3.8%

2.0 trieu

Công ty Cổ Phần Đầu Tư 3t

Inst

3.4%

1.0 trieu

Lữ Đình Huệ

Indiv

2.1%

104.769

Dương Đình Tâm

Indiv

1.9%

1.0 trieu

Lê Thanh Tùng

Indiv

1.9%

1.0 trieu

Bùi Hà Thanh

Indiv

1.9%

91.810

Lê Dương Thế Hùng

Indiv

1.6%

236.681

Đồng Việt Hưng

Indiv

1.6%

235.000

Nguyễn Kiều Thế Trung

Indiv

1.1%

158.700

Hồ Viết Trung

Indiv

0.8%

339.234

Hoàng Thị Minh Bắc

Indiv

0.7%

34.898

Lê Tấn Thọ

Indiv

0.5%

25.000

Tạ Chí Dũng

Indiv

0.5%

24.900

Huỳnh Đức Phát

Indiv

0.2%

8.294

Board & Management

Phạm Hùng Cường8.5%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Giám đốc Tài chính

Nguyễn Thị Thùy Linh4.6%

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Trần Thị Bình An4.6%

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Lê Dương Thế Hùng1.6%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Đồng Việt Hưng1.6%

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Đặng Vĩnh Thọ

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Đặng Ánh Quyên

Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Kế toán trưởng

Hồng Tài

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Tổng Giám đốc

Hoàng Văn Thắng

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Top connections

NAB2 links L148.5%PVS8.5%DFF6.4%TFC4.8%TIX4.8%UEM4.8%CI54.8%ITD4.8%F884.8%KCB4.8%STB4.8%

Computed 12/04/2026