QHW

Consumer

Công ty Cổ phần Nước khoáng Quảng Ninh

Thực phẩm và đồ uống/Bia và đồ uốngCT

35.000

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

82.816

Current

35.000

Gap

+136.6%

ModelFCF DCF

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Thực phẩm và đồ uống→Consumer

Classified as consumer because ICB sector "Thực phẩm và đồ uống" maps to the consumer group

ModelFCF-Based DCF

Value = Sum of [FCF / (1+WACC)^t] + Terminal Value / (1+WACC)^n

A classic Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the actual cash a business generates after all operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted back to today's value using WACC. This is the gold standard of intrinsic valuation: it values the company based on what it can actually deliver to shareholders, independent of market sentiment.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

0.800

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

10.10%

E/(D+E)

88.14%

Kd(1-t)

6.37%

D/(D+E)

11.86%

WACC

10.00%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend3.34%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Base FCF→32.31B

Projection years→10

Valuation

Base FCF

32.31B

Growth Rate

3.34%

WACC

10.00%

Terminal Growth

4.00%

DCF Value

82.816

Value Decomposition

43%

57%

Explicit period (43%)Terminal value (57%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — QHW

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2024

Fair

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

100

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2024

-2.45

Moderate

DSRI

1.055

GMI

1.031

AQI

0.931

SGI

0.932

DEPI

0.890

SGAI

0.888

TATA

0.004

LVGI

0.899

QHW exhibits a Beneish M-Score of -2.4455, indicating a low likelihood of earnings manipulation. However, the earnings quality metrics reveal significant concerns, particularly in receivables and revenue recognition, which could pose risks to financial integrity.

Red Flags

Earnings Quality Score of 65.4/100, with a concerning eq_receivables score of 32.0/100, indicating potential issues in revenue collection.
The eq_revenue score of 0.0/100 raises alarms about the reliability of reported revenues.

Positive Signals

Beneish M-Score below the manipulation threshold suggests a lower risk of earnings manipulation.
Strong eq_accrual score of 98.6/100 indicates good accrual quality, suggesting that reported earnings are likely backed by actual cash flows.

Ownership Risk

The top shareholders include significant institutional ownership by Masan Beverage (65.8%) and Masan Group (37.4%), which may lead to concentrated decision-making and potential conflicts of interest. The presence of a state-owned entity (14.4%) adds another layer of complexity in governance.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor QHW's revenue recognition practices and receivables management. It is advisable to conduct further due diligence on the company's financial reporting and governance structure before making investment decisions.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

4/9

Neutral

Z-Score

7.75

Safe Zone

Sharpe

0.11

Positive

Composite

Fair

Price Risk

Momentum

+6.7%

Volatility

63.4%

Max Drawdown

-31.3%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2024

7.82P/E

P/B1.06

P/S1.26

ROE14.2%

ROA12.6%

EPS4602.88

BVPS34059.31

Gross Margin24.2%

Net Margin16.1%

D/E0.12

Current Ratio10.26

Rev Growth-6.8%

Profit Growth-12.7%

EV/EBITDA4.21

Div Yield3.3%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

8.0M

Charter Capital

80.0B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Thực phẩm và đồ uống

Industry (ICB L3)

Bia và đồ uống

Sub-industry

Đồ uống & giải khát

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for QHW — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Công ty TNHH MTV Masan Beverage

Inst

65.8%

5.3 trieu

Công ty Cổ phần Tập đoàn Masan

Inst

37.4%

Ủy Ban Nhân Dân Tỉnh Quảng Ninh

State

14.4%

1.2 trieu

Board & Management

Phạm Thị Thu Hương

Kế toán trưởng

Nguyễn Hữu Chính

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Đàm Sơn

Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Trần Phương Bắc

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Thiều Nam

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Chí Thành

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Huỳnh Ngọc Bảo

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Huỳnh Việt Thăng

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Trần Tuấn Cường

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Top connections

VCF2 links NQN96.2%MSR96.0%MCH56.8%VSN37.4%TCB37.4%HAT5.1%SIV1.4%

Computed 12/04/2026