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Consumer sector

VCF

Consumer
Công ty Cổ phần VinaCafé Biên Hòa
Thực phẩm và đồ uống/Bia và đồ uốngCT
328.000
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Overvalued
Medium
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
234.670
Current
328.000
Gap
-28.4%
ModelFCF DCF

Valuation Breakdown

CTThực phẩm và đồ uốngConsumer
Classified as consumer because ICB sector "Thực phẩm và đồ uống" maps to the consumer group
ModelFCF-Based DCF
Value = Sum of [FCF / (1+WACC)^t] + Terminal Value / (1+WACC)^n

A classic Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the actual cash a business generates after all operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted back to today's value using WACC. This is the gold standard of intrinsic valuation: it values the company based on what it can actually deliver to shareholders, independent of market sentiment.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.800
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
10.10%
Ke
10.10%
x
E/(D+E)
76.14%
+
Kd(1-t)
6.39%
x
D/(D+E)
23.86%
=
WACC
10.00%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental firm blend2.94%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
Base FCF362.00B
Projection years10
4
Valuation
Base FCF
362.00B
Growth Rate
2.94%
WACC
10.00%
Terminal Growth
4.00%
DCF Value
234.670
Value Decomposition
43%
57%
Explicit period (43%)Terminal value (57%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — VCF

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

88
Good
Accrual Quality
83
Cash Conversion
70
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
100
Revenue Quality
100

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.00
Moderate
DSRI
1.696
GMI
0.917
AQI
0.146
SGI
1.080
DEPI
0.964
SGAI
0.725
TATA
0.042
LVGI
1.254

The Beneish M-Score of -2.0 indicates a lower likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is below the threshold of -1.78. However, the high DSRI of 1.6960 and the low SGAI of 0.7247 raise concerns about inventory management and sales growth relative to receivables.

Red Flags
  • DSRI of 1.6960 suggests potential overstatement of inventory, which could indicate aggressive accounting practices.
  • SGAI of 0.7247 indicates that sales growth is lagging behind the growth in receivables, raising concerns about revenue recognition practices.
Positive Signals
  • Earnings Quality Score of 88.2/100 reflects strong overall earnings quality, particularly with receivables and margin metrics both at 100.0/100.
  • The low GMI of 0.9174 suggests a stable gross margin, indicating potential operational efficiency.
Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily concentrated, with Công ty TNHH MTV Masan Beverage holding 98.8% of shares, which raises concerns about minority shareholder rights and potential governance issues.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor inventory levels and sales growth metrics, while considering the strong earnings quality indicators. A cautious approach is recommended until further clarity on operational practices is obtained.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
7/9
Strong
Z-Score
13.59
Safe Zone
Sharpe
1.51
Excellent
Composite
72
Strong
Price Risk
Momentum
+62.1%
Volatility
28.8%
Max Drawdown
-17.0%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
16.32P/E
P/B7.44
P/S3.06
ROE34.2%
ROA25.2%
EPS19482.18
BVPS42769.06
Gross Margin21.4%
Net Margin18.8%
D/E0.43
Current Ratio2.68
Rev Growth7.7%
Profit Growth16.0%
EV/EBITDA13.87
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
26.6M
Charter Capital
265.8B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Thực phẩm và đồ uống
Industry (ICB L3)
Bia và đồ uống
Sub-industry
Đồ uống & giải khát
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for VCF — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Công ty TNHH MTV Masan Beverage
Inst
98.8%
26.3 trieu
Công ty Cổ phần Tập đoàn Masan
Inst
55.9%
0
Board & Management
Huỳnh Thiên Phú
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Thành Luân
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Mai Văn Cường
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Hữu Phước
Người phụ trách quản trị công ty
Le Huu Thang
Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Hoàng Yến
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Hồ Thúy Hạnh
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Huỳnh Công Hoàn
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Phạm Hồng Sơn
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Phan Thị Thúy Hoa
Kế toán trưởng
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a methodology engine — not an advisor. Every number is the deterministic output of a published formula applied to public financial data. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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