MVB

Cyclicals

Tổng Công ty Công nghiệp mỏ Việt Bắc TKV - Công ty Cổ phần

Tài nguyên Cơ bản/Khai khoángCT

16.300

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Medium

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

34.714

Current

16.300

Gap

+113.0%

ModelEV EBITDA MIDCYCLE

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Tài nguyên Cơ bản→Cyclical

Classified as cyclical because ICB sector "Tài nguyên Cơ bản" maps to the cyclical group

ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle

Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

Model Inputs

Mid-Cycle EBITDA→762.36B

Fair EV/EBITDA→5.0x

Years of data→7

Valuation

Mid-Cycle EBITDA

762.36B

Fair EV/EBITDA

5.0x

Net Debt

166.88B

Equity Value

34.714

Years of data→7

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — MVB

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Fair

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

100

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.59

Low Risk

DSRI

0.701

GMI

0.937

AQI

0.979

SGI

1.045

DEPI

0.898

SGAI

1.031

TATA

0.038

LVGI

0.983

MVB exhibits a Beneish M-Score of -2.5902, indicating a low likelihood of earnings manipulation. However, the earnings quality metrics reveal significant weaknesses, particularly in cash conversion and revenue recognition, which warrant caution.

Red Flags

Earnings Quality Score of 68.6/100, with a notably low cash conversion score of 44.1/100, suggesting potential issues in translating earnings into cash flow.
Revenue recognition score of 0.0/100 indicates a complete lack of reliability in revenue reporting, raising concerns about the sustainability of reported earnings.

Positive Signals

Beneish M-Score of -2.5902, well below the manipulation threshold of -1.78, suggesting a lower risk of earnings manipulation.
Strong receivables score of 100.0/100 indicates effective management of accounts receivable, which is a positive signal for cash collection.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily concentrated, with 98.2% held by Tập đoàn Công nghiệp Than - Khoáng sản Việt Nam, which may lead to governance risks and lack of minority shareholder protections.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor cash flow performance and revenue recognition practices while considering the strong institutional backing. A cautious approach is advised until improvements in earnings quality metrics are observed.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

6/9

Neutral

Z-Score

3.28

Safe Zone

Sharpe

-0.22

Negative

Composite

Fair

Price Risk

Momentum

-3.9%

Volatility

49.5%

Max Drawdown

-43.8%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

7.84P/E

P/B1.00

P/S0.32

ROE13.0%

ROA7.1%

EPS2169.33

BVPS17077.98

Gross Margin15.3%

Net Margin4.1%

D/E0.51

Current Ratio1.60

Rev Growth4.5%

Profit Growth1.2%

EV/EBITDA3.11

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

105.0M

Charter Capital

1050.0B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Tài nguyên Cơ bản

Industry (ICB L3)

Khai khoáng

Sub-industry

Khai khoáng

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for MVB — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Tập đoàn Công nghiệp Than - Khoáng sản Việt Nam

Inst

98.2%

103.1 trieu

Board & Management

Trần Hải Bình

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Tổng Giám đốc

Lê Quang Bình

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Lê Xuân Ngợi

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

NGÔ NGỌC SƠN

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Vũ Minh Tân

Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Đặng Văn Tùng

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Lê Thị Thu Hiền

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Thị Lịch

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Vũ Thế Tấn

Người phụ trách quản trị công ty

Phạm Xuân Vinh

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Trịnh Hồng Ngân

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Top connections

DTK99.3%KSV98.2%VTM98.2%VBG98.2%MGC98.2%HLC98.2%TMB98.2%TVD98.2%CST98.2%MDC98.2%NBC98.2%TD698.2%

Computed 12/04/2026